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Analysis

Towards More Aid: The Implications of Biden’s Visit to...

On 3 May, President Joe Biden visited the Lockheed Martin facility in Alabama, a major armory of the US military manufacturing that supplies weapon systems to Ukraine in its war against Russia. The visit, the first since President Biden took office and perhaps since his time as Vice President...

Ukraine’s View of the War: The ECSS’ Observatory Interviews...

The Russo-Western conflict over Ukraine has been accelerating since late 2021. The entry of the Russian forces into Ukraine on 24 February made the situation increasingly complex and left the whole world facing murky scenarios, the most optimistic of which suggests undesirable consequences that no country, far or near,...

Russia, West and the World: What Is Behind the...

This year started with a dramatic shift in the global balance of power, which was settled after the end of the Cold War in 1989 – 1991. What we see now is a strong attempt to dismantle the current one-polar international system and to replace it with a new...

Dissecting the Ukraine Crisis

International crises constitute an important chapter in the study of relations between nations. As a rule, relations between countries aren’t generally divided between peace and war, but rather swing between cooperation and rivalry, affability and tensions. When superpowers are involved in crises, the threats extend to affect the whole...

The Will to Return: Implications of the Recrudescence of...

In March 2019, the month that marked the Islamic State’s (IS) defeat in the battle of Baghuz Fawqani, the International Coalition (IC) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDFs) announced notching up a definitive victory over IS, capturing the majority of its elements on Syrian territory. Al-Baghuz –a small town located...

Dramatic Shifts at Addis Ababa’s Ramparts

At headquarters of the Prosperity Party last Monday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed chaired an executive meeting that brought together pillars of his regime including the Defence minister, Abraham Pillay, who came out of the meeting telling the press that from the following day (Tuesday), military and security forces...

High sea strategies

The navy has kept pace with the overall progress of the Egyptian Armed Forces and abreast of international naval developments. Before learning of its extensive off shore reserves of gas, Egypt’s navy was primarily concerned with conventional coastline security. In the wake of a series of maritime border agreements in...

Behind the Scenes in the Muslim Brotherhood

The Muslim Brotherhood is facing a series of challenges that are knocking its political and organizational structures. The tensions are rising within the ranks of the group in tandem with the skirmishes among its wings following the latest decisions issued by acting supreme guide Ibrahim Mounir. An internal war...

Nord Stream 2: A pipeline under Scepticism

At the beginning of September 2021, the last pipes of Nord Stream 2 were welded into the pipeline string and lowered to the Baltic seabed in German waters, after a construction delay for more than a year due to the threat of US sanctions, in December 2019, against contractors...

The Murder of Islamic State in Greater Sahara Leader:...

French President Emmanuel Macron announced last week the murder of the leader of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Adnan Abou Walid Al-Sahrawi, at the hands of French forces. The following day Macron tweeted that Al-Sahrawi “was neutralized by the French Forces. This is another major success...

Five Barriers: Taliban’s Psychology and Challenges of Transforming into...

When attempting to change their mental image or cope with surrounding developments, extremist groups and organizations are generally faced with considerable challenges, including primarily the frequent discrepancy between their attempts to change and the quest for establishing credibility with their followers, supporters, and members.  In addition, there is the “extremist-personality”...

Will Taliban Abandon Al-Qaeda?

The September 11 attacks of 2001 in New York – dubbed the “Manhattan Invasion” and carried out by Al-Qaeda without taking the permission of the Emirate it pledged allegiance to, as some observers noted –were the primary reason that gave rise to the fall of the Taliban’s Emirate in...

2020-2021: aviation industry & national security in Europe

COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on the aviation industry globally in 2020, changing the aviation connectivity map. European Union has still been struggling economically since the 2010 economical crisis, with 3 of its members states having more than 50% of their population unable to pay for unexpected financial...

The role of Muslim Sisters in the Brotherhood’s strategies

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has recognized the pivotal role of women in the organization at an early stage. Hassan Al-Banna established the Muslim Sisters branch in 1933 and since then the role of women in the organization has evolved from missionary activity, through recruitment, to confronting Egyptian security forces...

The media: The Brotherhood’s weapon against states

Amid the global, regional, and national crises, the coronavirus pandemic and its repercussions, climate change, and regional conflicts, the ideological and fundamentalist discourses – which are also in crisis in the Arab and Islamic worlds and on an international level – were able to manipulate these predicaments for their...

The MB’s secret cell and its relationship with intelligence...

Secret activities are carried out to keep an organization safe from confrontations with rivals and security forces. Secrecy helps entities protect certain measures from being known in and outside their group. Covert activity occurs when individuals create exclusive cells in which they exchange ideas that may be illegal or inconsistent...

‘Firewall against extremism’: The Brotherhood’s great deception

I was the Al-Ahram correspondent in Washington when the 25 January Revolution broke out in Egypt in 2011, and a few months later the administration of former US president Barack Obama began determining its next moves regarding dealing with both the concealed and the more conspicuous political forces in Egypt following...

World outlooks in 2021

2020 has not been, by all accounts, an ordinary year in human history. There were no global, regional or economic disasters. There was no cold war that made the international order descend into chaos. To the whole world’s great surprise, it was a tiny virus that caused a major...

The Saqqara Necropolis discoveries Evoke Ancient Egypt’s Legacy

The world is in awe over the recent dazzling archeological discoveries at the Saqqara Necropolis announced by Egypt’s Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities in October and November, the latter being described as the biggest in 2020. Saqqara is the site where several prominent discoveries were made in recent years....

The Middle East and the Democrats

It is difficult to determine the course of US President-elect Joe Biden’s policy towards the Middle East after inauguration day on 20 January, but before discussing the policy of the new president and his prospective team, reference should be made to the transformations that created a new reality, or...

‘Breaking the Walls’: The Islamic State’s strategy for a...

In late October 2019, the United States killed Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, the founder and leader of the Islamic State (IS). However, the terrorist organization is still capable of launching large-scale offensives. Most recently, as part of its “Breaking the Walls” strategy, IS staged a number of prison breaks in...

Netanyahu and Bennett: Indications of political change in Israel

The New Right Party leader and figurehead of the Yamina leader, Naftali Bennett, announced he will contest the position of prime minister in the upcoming elections. Bennett called for the Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz to choose either to vote “no-confidence” in the government and form a...

Three Reasons to Look at Egypt’s Elections Differently

Every time Egyptian parliamentary elections are held, we hear loud noises from some political and research circles abroad. The foreign media and research hype around the Egyptian elections is usually characterized by generalized criticism and by the use of the same descriptions of the political situation in the country...

The ‘Muslim Immigrant’ Phobia: Psychological Factors Inciting Terrorism in...

Debate is rife about the reasons for the rise of extremism among young immigrants in Europe. Several studies delved into the social dynamics inducing terrorism, and the psychological root causes that drive youth living the European culture to indulge in terrorist activities against their societies, in an attempt at...

News Analysis: Ceasefire A positive Step Towards Libyan Crisis...

The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced that two parties constituting the Joint Military Commission (5+5) reached an agreement on permanent ceasefire at the conclusion of the fourth round of this path, which had continued for a whole week. According to the UN Envoy, Stephanie Williams, both parties...

Turkish Economic Deterioration

On 28 September, the Turkish lira hit its worst rate since 2014, topping TL 7.18 to the dollar. This amounts to a 24 per cent drop in value since the beginning of the year, despite the fact that, just three days earlier, the Turkish Central Bank raised the interest...

Egypt Hosted Talks: Libya’s Rapprochement

Continuing its efforts to advance peace in Libya, Egypt hosted talks in the framework of the 5+5 Joint Military Commission on Monday in the Red Sea resort city of Hurghada. The meeting is a crucial step in the preparatory talks for the comprehensive Libyan National Dialogue that will be...

A Constraint or an Opportunity? Al-Sarraj Announces Power Hhandover...

The shift in the discourse of the head of the Presidential Council of the Government of National Accord (GNA), Fayez Al-Sarraj, concerning the future of power in Libya proposed new variables. Al-Sarraj changed the short-term political plan from a program to hand over power in six months (September 2020...

Forgotten Southern Libya

In Libya, which is customarily treated one-dimensionally as a case of sharp polarisation between the eastern and western parts of the country (a reductionism that is perhaps intentional on the part of some stakeholders), the south has reared its head as a bundle of threats with major security implications....

Employing identity Conflicts: Turkey between Secular Ruins and Ottoman...

The ongoing identity conflict on the Turkish arena is an important indicator to understanding the nature of the new Ottoman project and subjecting it to academic and scientific analysis; in addition to its importance in answering a number of questions that make both the project and the conflict subject...

Misinterpreting Egypt in Congress

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives held a hearing on Wednesday 9 September entitled “Egypt: Trends in politics, economics, and human rights,” with the notice of the time and website for the meeting being posted only a week ahead of time. The four witnesses all have...

The prickly relation between Abiy Ahmed and the military

Since he was sworn in as prime minister in April 2018, Abiy Ahmed's relationship with the military has been a prickly issue. Historically, the military establishment has played a major role in Ethiopian politics, be it by reinforcing the government or toppling it. By observing Ahmed's policies Ethiopia’s political...

East Mediterranean Gas Forum and Egyptian-Greek Relations

The East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) has been established as an international body in Cairo at the beginning of this year, coinciding with the intensity of rivalry between the Mediterranean countries over natural gas exploration and extraction in the region. The Forum aims to establish a regional gas market...

Negative Impacts of the GERD

Ethiopia’s strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. It seeks to build an infrastructure for regional water hegemony, positioning it, at the very least, in such a way that it can exchange water for oil. This is hardly a revelation, as this strategy has long been foremost...

The right comparison?

I attended Egypt’s National Youth Conference for the first time this year, when two sessions evoked the development of terrorism and the complicated issue of fake news. During a third session, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi, who attended all the sessions and commented on all the presentations, answered questions relating to...

The discourse on Egypt

Some colleagues who recently went to Europe were appalled by what they heard from various officials there. “They still do not understand the true nature of the Muslim Brotherhood. They are still unaware of our predicament,” these colleagues said. I discussed the issue with them, and many preferred an explanation...

GERD: Ethiopia’s Motives and Challenges

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been encountering hurdles since laying its foundation stone in April 2011. Ethiopia’s plan was to finalize the construction of the dam in 2017. The date was put off till 2018 and again till 2022 due to problems in funding and implementation. The...

A Win-Win Solution on the Dam?

On 2 April 2011, Ethiopia laid the foundation stone of the largest dam ever to be built in Africa and the tenth largest in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. With an installed capacity of 6,450 Megawatts, the reservoir of the dam, named Lake Zenawi after the late Ethiopian...

Egypt, Ethiopia, and the GERD: Good faith vs intransigence

As President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi pointed out, Egypt is almost exclusively dependent on the Nile for its water needs and an acceptable agreement is essential to avert potentially disastrous consequences for Egypt and its people. Not only did he sound the alarm for all the world to hear from the...

GERD: Bogged down Negotiations and Alternatives

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is in the limelight due to the failure of negotiations with Ethiopia and Sudan after five years of talks and the inability of the committees formed to solve the crisis to reach a breakthrough. This has driven Egypt to announce the futility of...

Internal Vision: International Competition for Africa

There are two ways to look at international parties competing for Africa. One way is that international partners may promise opportunities for development in the continent. The foreign players’ different orientations provide an array of choices for African countries to equiponderate the effect of the competitors.  The other way, these...

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