The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has adopted a multi-pronged strategy to deal with the fallout of the Russian-Ukrainian war, one that combines deterrence and long-term defense against any potential threats the allies may be exposed to from Russia. This was done by developing NATO’s Strategic Concept and reorganizing its regional defense plans for the first time since the end of the Cold War. By taking these actions, NATO will be able to more effectively identify the threats and challenges that it must handle on behalf of its member states, thereby ensuring the organization’s capacity to provide collective defense.
The NATO 2022 Strategic Concept identifies Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area”. It seeks to enhance NATO’s readiness and responsiveness to any threat, current or potential, by enhancing interoperability in order to strengthen joint defense. This was demonstrated by the annual Northern Coasts naval exercises, which were led by Germany from 9-23 September in the Baltic Sea.
For the first time, the German Navy’s General Staff will “plan and lead maneuvers of this size”, and the objectives of this year’s maneuvers have been reevaluated to better reflect the constantly shifting security environment. It places emphasis on collective defense by simulating NATO’s response to any attack, marking a qualitative shift from previous scenarios simulated in the Northern Coasts naval exercises, which were primarily centered on crisis management, preventing the outbreak of conflict, and combating terrorism. This prompted numerous inquiries into the nature of the maneuvers, the countries involved, and their potential effects on the Baltic Sea.
Notably, these maneuvers are not the first that the allies have carried out in the Baltic Sea area. NATO performed air-sea maneuvers in the area on June 4 with the participation of about 6,000 soldiers, 45 aircraft, and 50 ships. In return, Russia retaliated by conducting exercises in the same area from 5 to 15 June, involving more than 3,000 soldiers, about 40 warships, and other military equipment. While these exercises are still conducted on a regular basis, the goals, size of the participating forces, naval vessels, and types of weapons have changed and are now more likely to be used to demonstrate both sides’ strength in key geostrategic influence zones.
Strategic Shift
NATO forces are currently engaged in their annual collective naval exercises off the coasts of Latvia and Estonia. Typically, the host countries primarily determine the maritime zones covered by the maneuvers. In an effort to avoid provoking Russia, the maneuvers will also not occur near Kaliningrad, which is located near Poland and Lithuania. In addition to Sweden, which is anticipated to officially join NATO after Turkey and Hungary ratify the accession protocol, the maneuver will also involve the remaining NATO states in the Baltic Sea region, as well as France, Belgium, Canada, the Netherlands, the United States, and Germany, bringing the total number of participating countries to about 14.
Germany is in command of Northern Coasts 2023. Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, the Chief of German Navy claims that this will be the first exercise of this magnitude to be led by the largest navy in the Baltic Sea from its newly operational naval headquarters in Rostock. By making this headquarters a regional hub for NATO operations in the Baltic Sea, should an attack occur, Berlin hopes to actively contribute to strengthening NATO’s defense capabilities in the area.
Operations during the maneuvers will focus primarily on educating the approximately 3,200 participating soldiers. Additionally, 30 ships and submarines, roughly 15 aircraft, and numerous landing units for amphibious operations, air defense, sea-to-land strikes, and securing shipping lanes will take part in the drill. There will be five working groups: two German-led formations, two permanent NATO formations responsible for the Baltic Sea, and a formation consisting of anti-submarine aircraft and an amphibious task force led by the United States. According to Kaack, the US Navy will send the USS Mesa Verde to take part in the exercise, which is designed to transport and land 800 marines during an amphibious assault.
Notably, since its launch in 2007, at the initiative of the German Navy and led by Denmark, Sweden, and Finland in addition to Germany, the Northern Coasts maneuvers have sought to foster cooperation between NATO and European Union member states in the Baltic region in the wake of the Cold War, in parallel with NATO’s eastern enlargement, especially with the 2004 admission of the Baltic States. Prior to 2014, these maneuvers appeared to have been primarily focused on strengthening collective and national defenses, but since then, their operational tasks have gradually shifted away from crisis response and counterterrorism.
Multiple Messages
Given that the war has been raging for more than a year and a half without either side agreeing to an end, these maneuvers show the extent of NATO’s strategy shift towards the Baltic Sea region and the desire to show the breadth of its capacity for collective defense. Consequently, these maneuvers convey a number of messages, such as:
- Joint Defense Capability: These exercises are meant to strengthen NATO countries’ ability to work together and coordinate their air, land, and naval forces in the Baltic Sea region in order to defend against any potential attack on the countries of NATO’s northern hemisphere as the Ukraine war changed the security landscape in Europe in general and the Baltic Sea region in particular, especially after Russia emerged as the greatest threat to Euro-Atlantic security, which was confirmed in NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept during the NATO summit held in Madrid at the end of June 2022.
- Power Display: These maneuvers are a manifestation of NATO’s firm stance towards Russia and an attempt to send a message that the Baltic Sea region, which is considered Moscow’s backyard, is now a NATO-controlled lake, which will contribute to a shift in the regional balance of power in NATO’s favor.
- Pre-emptive Deterrence: These maneuvers fit into NATO’s strategy of relying on robust military capabilities with high readiness to increase its capacity to respond quickly to hybrid threats as well as its desire to protect its allies’ interests in the area, which are crucial to its long-term strategic interests and not just a short-term response to contain the effects of the war. Two days after the start of these exercises, NATO declared that it would hold the biggest joint live exercise since the Cold War in the Baltic States, Germany, and Poland in the months of February and March of the following year, with the participation of about 40,000 soldiers, to counter any Russian threat against member states. According to the Financial Times, these drills are also part of NATO’s new training strategy, which requires that the NATO hold two sizable exercises annually as opposed to one.
- The Principle of Reciprocity: Although the maneuvers along the Northern Coasts take place every year, this year’s edition serves as an indirect response to Russia’s maneuvers in the Baltic Sea, the last of which took place in August 2023. To ensure the security of the sea lanes and the defense of the sea coast, Russia conducted the Ocean Shield 2023 exercises to assess the readiness of its naval forces. In addition to its expanding influence, Russia also has a naval fleet stationed in Kaliningrad in the area. On Navy Day in July, Vladimir Putin announced the addition of 30 naval vessels to Russia’s fleets, a move that will bolster the country’s armed forces and send a message of deterrence to Western powers against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict.
- Strengthening Influence: The “open door policy” that NATO has maintained helped it expand the range of the deployment of its forces and tighten its control over several important regions, including the Baltic Sea, particularly with the formal accession of Finland and the anticipated accession of Sweden. Participation in NATO exercises by Finland and Sweden will increase NATO’s interoperability and, thus, its capabilities. Furthermore, Stockholm’s and Helsinki’s armament systems are in line with NATO requirements, further bolstering NATO’s presence and encircling Moscow’s influence.
- Radical Shift: Germany’s leadership of these maneuvers reflects its coalition government’s desire to show how committed it is to reorganizing its foreign and defense policies at the national level and under NATO’s auspices in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian War, which served as the primary impetus for adopting this approach. Germany’s responses to the aftereffects of the war were consistent with those of the allies in terms of its political rhetoric condemning Russia and its support for Ukraine, as well as the mechanisms it developed to play out these roles. This was made clear in June 2023, when the German government released the first German National Security Strategy since the end of World War II, with the slogan “Robust, Resilient, Sustainable: Integrated Security for Germany”.
In conclusion, it is anticipated that the Baltic Sea region, which is strategically significant to both NATO and Russia, will undergo a number of changes in light of the two sides’ decision to adopt a strategy of displaying military power in the area without directly engaging in conflict. This will be accomplished by altering the operations’ goals and the annual military exercises conducted there, as well as by evaluating the forces’ capacity for quick action.
