The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has released the eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index for the year 2024. This annual report, published in English since 2012, utilizes the Dragonfly’s Terrorism Tracker database among other sources, offering a comprehensive summary of key global trends and patterns in terrorism. It analyzes significant dimensions related to terrorism, such as the social and economic conditions under which it occurs and its dynamic nature that changes over time. The first part of this series provided an overview of the terrorist operations and the deadliest terrorist groups in 2023. This part reviews the ten countries most affected by terrorism, according to the index.
1. Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso ranked first among the ten countries most affected by terrorism in 2023. Despite a 16% decrease in the rate of attacks from the previous year, the number of deaths from these attacks rose to 1,907, up from 1,135 in 2022, marking a 68% increase. Approximately half of the terrorist attacks in 2023 occurred in the northwest of the country along the borders with Niger and Mali, including the deadliest attack carried out by ISIS in February, which resulted in the death of 71 soldiers.
The increase in fatalities coincided with a similar rise in the targeting of civilians; terrorist attacks resulted in 1,132 civilian deaths, a more than 56% increase from the previous year, which saw 725 civilian deaths. JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, remains the most prominent terrorist group in Burkina Faso, with the number of deaths from its terrorist activities nearly multiplying five times to 616 in 2023 from previously 134 in 2022. The lethality of its attacks increased to an average of about 20 fatalities per attack, compared with 3.9 the previous year. As for ISIS activity, the number of claimed attacks rose from two in 2022 to seven in 2023. Although the total number of ISIS attacks in the country remains relatively low, the fatalities have significantly increased, surpassing 100 deaths for the first time, with 174 deaths attributed to the organization. The index suggests that the actual number of fatalities attributed to JNIM and ISIS in Burkina Faso could be much higher than reported, as 85% of attacks and 59% of deaths in the country were attributed to unknown jihadist groups.
According to the index, the high levels of terrorism in Burkina Faso reflect its poor performance in the 2023 Global Peace Index, where the country recorded the largest deterioration in peace in Sub-Saharan Africa. The likelihood of an increase in terrorist threat levels in Burkina Faso remains high in light of escalating violence and an unstable political situation. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Burkina Faso in 2023:
2. Israel
The index ranks Israel as the second most affected country by terrorism in 2023, noting unprecedented levels of fatalities with 1,210 people killed and 4,537 injured in 20 attacks, nearly all of which occurred on 7 October, when Hamas launched a series of attacks known as “Al-Aqsa Flood.” In response, Israel conducted a widespread counterattack on Gaza, resulting in the death of over 25,000 Palestinians (16,000 of whom were women and children), leading to international calls for a ceasefire amid increasing risks of malnutrition and famine among the Palestinian people.
Despite the unprecedented nature of the 7 October attacks, the security situation in Israel had been deteriorating over the past years, with more than 3,000 instances of community violence in Israel and Palestine in 2022, compared to less than 500 in 2016. The past year also saw the killing of over 40 people in settler-related violence, and many indicators suggested that tensions between Israel and Palestine had reached record levels. The index highlights the continued high risk of destabilizing events in the Middle East due to the 7 October events, with concerns that the conflict in Gaza could spread to other countries in the region. The following figure shows the targeted groups in the attacks that occurred in Israel in 2023:
3. Mali
The number of deaths resulting from terrorism in Mali decreased by 20% in 2023, after seven consecutive years of increases in the death toll, to 753 deaths, compared to 2022, as well as the attacks decreasing by 7% to reach 253 attacks. Unlike most other countries in the region, deaths in attacks targeting civilians outnumbered those targeting military personnel, with civilians accounting for 45% of the total deaths, compared to 35% among military personnel. Mali’s borders with Burkina Faso and Niger remain the most affected by terrorism, with 60% of attacks occurring in these areas. However, terrorist activity seems to be shifting towards the western provinces of the country, with a significant increase in fatalities in the Koulikoro and Ségou regions in 2023. Reports indicate that the Malian army and The Russian PMC Wagner forces maintain their presence in western areas like Koulikoro and Ségou, but violence is escalating as militants fight security forces.
JNIM, affiliated with Al-Qaeda, remains the most prominent terrorist group in Mali, with the number of deaths attributed to it doubling in 2023 to 263 deaths from 76 attacks. In contrast, ISIS attacks in Mali decreased to a third, and the fatalities resulting from them dropped by 42%. Meanwhile, 47% of the total deaths in Mali during the past year were attributed to unknown jihadist groups. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Mali in 2023:
4. Pakistan
The impacts of terrorism significantly increased in Pakistan, with a 35% rise in fatalities from terrorist attacks last year, reaching 689 deaths. Terrorist attacks also showed an upward trend, totaling 490, a 34% increase from 2022. The country has seen a significant rise in terrorist activity since the Taliban’s ascendancy to power in Afghanistan, with armed groups operating from Afghan territory intensifying their attacks, particularly along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were severely affected, witnessing 93% of terrorist attacks and 96% of terrorism-related deaths in Pakistan during 2023.
The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was the most lethal terrorist group in Pakistan in 2023, responsible for 42% of the terrorism-related deaths in the country through 210 attacks, resulting in 288 deaths, up from 130 attacks in 2022. Armed groups from Balochistan continue to exploit the ongoing instability in Pakistan to increase their attacks, with the Balochistan Liberation Army’s attacks rising from 43 in 2022 to 110 in 2023. The index suggests that the terrorist threat in Pakistan is likely to continue escalating amid internal instability and heightened tensions with Afghanistan. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Pakistan in 2023:
5. Syria
Terrorism-related threats disturbingly resurged in Syria last year, with fatalities from terrorist activity rising by 23% to 650 deaths and the number of terrorist attacks increasing by 22% to 320 attacks. The eastern border provinces were the most affected by terrorism in 2023, with 63% of the attacks occurring in the provinces of Deir Al Zor and Homs, along the border with Iraq.
ISIS remains the deadliest terrorist group in Syria, responsible for 65% of the total fatalities and 70% of the terrorist attacks in the country during 2023, with its attacks increasing by 47% from 2022. The organization continues to shift its focus from targeting civilians to targeting military personnel, who accounted for 76% of its attack victims in Syria last year.
According to the index, ISIS maintains a strong presence in Syria despite losing control of all territories in the country and shifting its propaganda focus to activities in Sub-Saharan Africa. The group might be adopting a low-profile strategy in the Middle East and North Africa, perhaps waiting for global attention to shift elsewhere or anticipating a potential American withdrawal from the region in preparation for a full resurgence. Regardless of the organization’s intentions, the increase in its attacks and resulting fatalities confirm that its threat remains present in Syria. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Syria in 2023:
6. Afghanistan
Terrorist activity significantly decreased in Afghanistan last year, and the country is no longer the most affected by terrorism, a position it has consistently held in previous editions of the index since 2018. Terrorism-related fatalities in the country dropped by 81% compared to 2022, reaching 119 deaths. The number of terrorist attacks decreased by 71%, reaching the lowest levels in the past two decades. However, the significant reduction in terrorism does not imply the restoration of complete peace in Afghanistan, as the index’s statistics do not include acts of repression and violence committed by the Taliban, with numerous reports detailing their violent practices towards civilians, media, former government officials, and human rights workers.
The majority of terrorist attacks in Afghanistan during 2023 occurred in the northern provinces, with the largest number of fatalities occurring in Kabul province, mostly resulting from attacks by the ISIS-Khorasan branch. Despite Kabul remaining the province most affected by terrorism for the tenth consecutive year, the number of fatalities reached its lowest level last year, with the index recording 52 deaths from 22 attacks, down from 217 deaths and 68 attacks in 2022. The number of suicide bombings also significantly decreased, with only seven recorded in 2023 compared to 46 a decade ago.
According to the index, the ISIS-Khorasan branch remains the most active terrorist group in Afghanistan, responsible for 17 attacks and 73 deaths in 2023, accounting for more than 61% of the total fatalities in the country this year. Nonetheless, the fatalities resulting from the group’s attacks decreased by 83% from 2022. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Afghanistan in 2023:
7. Somalia
Somalia recorded a decrease in terrorism-related impacts in 2023, with a 37% reduction in terrorist attacks and a 43% decrease in fatalities compared to 2022. This significant reduction is largely attributed to the diminished activity of Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, whose attacks nearly halved, indicating the success of counter-terrorism operations carried out by the Somali government in collaboration with its regional and international allies. This impact was particularly evident in the Banadir and Middle Shabelle regions, which had been major hubs of terrorist activity in Somalia, where attacks by the group in these areas decreased by 89% and fatalities by 76% from 2022. The Lower Shabelle and Hiran regions recorded the highest number of deaths from Al-Shabaab attacks. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Somalia in 2023:
8. Nigeria
Nigeria recorded its first increase in terrorist activity in three years during 2023, with total fatalities rising by 34% to 524 deaths, the highest number of terrorism-related fatalities since 2020. This increase is attributed to escalated conflict between the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram. Excluding the conflict between these two groups from the index would have resulted in an 18% decrease in terrorism-related deaths from 2022.
According to the index, civilians were the most targeted group for the second consecutive year, with more than a quarter of the attacks in Nigeria during 2023, followed by military personnel at 21%. The Islamic State’s West Africa Province was the deadliest terrorist group in the country over the past four years, accounting for 37% of all attacks witnessed in Nigeria. Although these attacks slightly decreased last year, the fatalities from them rose by 27% to 276 deaths, indicating that the group’s attacks have become more lethal, with the average rising from 3.6 people in 2022 to 5.2 people per attack in 2023. Boko Haram had its deadliest year since 2020, executing 29 attacks that led to 151 deaths, up from 9 attacks and 72 deaths in 2022. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Nigeria in 2023:
9. Myanmar
For the first time since 2020, terrorist attacks in Myanmar decreased by nearly 50% from 851 attacks in 2022 to 444 attacks in 2023. Similarly, fatalities from terrorism decreased by 26% from 480 to 354 deaths. Government and political figures remain the most targeted group for terrorism in Myanmar, with a third of the country’s fatalities resulting from attacks targeting both of these groups.
According to the index, Mandalay was the most affected area by terrorism in Myanmar during 2023, witnessing nearly 22% of the total attacks and more than 21% of the fatalities in the country. The central and southern regions in Bago, Sagaing, and Magway experienced an increase in terrorist activity in 2023, with attacks and fatalities rising by approximately 300%. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Myanmar in 2023:
10. Niger
Terrorist activity surged in Niger last year, with the number of terrorist attacks rising to 61 compared to 54 in 2022. The number of fatalities doubled, reaching 468 from 193 deaths, indicating a significant increase in the lethality of attacks in the country. According to the index, military personnel constituted 73% of the terrorism-related losses, making Niger the country with the third-highest number of military fatalities in 2023. The Tillaberi region, located in the tri-border area with Mali and Burkina Faso, recorded the highest number of attacks and fatalities, witnessing 59% of the country’s total terrorist attacks and 84% of the victims. JNIM and ISIS remain the most active terrorist groups in Niger last year.
According to the index, Niger, like other countries in the African Sahel region, faces significant security threats linked to the expansion of terrorist groups exploiting the prevailing political instability in the region to recruit members and incite violence. The following figure illustrates the fatalities from terrorism and the targeted groups in Niger in 2023:
