The Horn of Africa suffers from complex structural crises, manifested in political conflicts, ethnic and racial disputes, and border conflicts, in addition to security fragility. This creates a conducive environment for the expansion and spread of terrorist organizations, particularly Al-Shabaab and ISIS. Both organizations are striving to expand their operational areas and geographical reach. This intricate scene necessitates an analysis by examining its main actors, current context, and future implications.
A Complex Scene
Several countries in the Horn of Africa are witnessing a growth in terrorist activities, with the Somali Al-Shabaab movement standing out as the largest and most powerful armed terrorist organization in Somalia. Currently led by Ahmed Umar, also known as Abu Ubaidah Al-Somali, the group has pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda since 2012. The movement was formed in 2002 and its activities crystallized in 2006 when it was announced as the “military wing” of the Islamic Courts Union, which controlled the Somali capital Mogadishu at that time. However, it declared its split from the Union in 2007, after the latter allied with the Somali opposition.
The movement has experienced periods of decline at different times but has managed to establish itself as a key player in Somalia by controlling several areas in the central and southern regions. Its activities have also extended to neighboring countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya. A UN report issued last January estimated its number of members to be around 7,000 to 12,000, noting that the group’s annual revenue reached about $100 million from extortion, piracy operations, and its links to organized crime gangs.
In 2022, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced a comprehensive war against the movement targeting its influence. The Somali government launched a military campaign against it, resulting in significant losses due to airstrikes targeting its leaders and members. However, the group remains resilient and capable of carrying out large-scale attacks.
In a parallel context, Somalia also witnessed the rise of ISIS in October 2015, led by Abdul Qadir Mumin after he split from Al-Shabaab. ISIS’s activities have been concentrated in the Puntland region in northeastern Somalia, and the group has bolstered its ranks with more defectors from Al-Shabaab. A UN report issued in July 2023 indicated that the organization comprises between 100 to 200 members. According to another UN report in February 2023, ISIS generated about $100,000 monthly through illegal taxes.
ISIS does not have the capability to control vast areas or carry out large operations due to ongoing attacks from Al-Shabaab. Its activities fall under the oversight of the “Karrar Office,” responsible for Somalia, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. (The Karrar Office is one of ISIS’s regional offices responsible for coordination between the group’s central leadership and its various provinces).
Bilal Al-Sudani, who was killed in a U.S. operation in northern Somalia in January 2023 and was responsible for expanding ISIS’s activities in Africa, succeeded in forming a network of seasoned fighters and individuals connected to organized crime networks, which are utilized to bolster ISIS’s activities in the region. His death is likely to impact the strategic objectives of this network.
Additionally, the Somali scene has witnessed an intensification of the conflict between Al-Shabaab and ISIS since the latter’s emergence in Somalia. This is due to ISIS recruiting members from Al-Shabaab, capitalizing on the allure of ISIS’s ideology and internal divisions within Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab is aware that ISIS’s goal is not limited to establishing a presence in Somali territories but also aims to create an ISIS province by expanding into areas under Al-Shabaab’s control, which is seen as a clear threat to its influence. The primary reasons for their conflict revolve around dominance, sources of funding, and financial and logistical support.
A Turbulent Context
The activity of terrorist organizations in the Horn of Africa occurs within a highly turbulent context linked to the challenges faced by the Somali state on one hand, and the challenges experienced by the region on the other. The main features of this context can be outlined as follows:
The Somali State Issue: The Somali state is characterized by several structural challenges that weaken its ability to deal with the security and political crises it faces, due to the weakness of its official institutions, as well as the decline in its organizational and distributive efficiency, which enables it to perform its basic functions.
The country experiences political instability due to the adoption of clan-based power-sharing mechanisms, which serve as a primary incentive for the growth of political and administrative discrimination against tribal minorities. Consequently, tribal conflicts are renewed as some sub-clans demand equal representation with other clans in political representation.
Additionally, the Somali federal system faces challenges due to the lack of social and cultural cohesion within Somali society with the dynamics of the federal system, as well as the absence of legal and constitutional frameworks that define the relationship between the central government and state governments. Moreover, there is growing rapprochement between the Somali regional governments and Ethiopia.
This was reflected in the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and the Somaliland government last January, under which Addis Ababa enjoys access to the Red Sea in preparation for establishing a commercial maritime base, in exchange for the Ethiopian government’s recognition of “Somaliland” as an independent state, which the central Somali government considered a “violation” of Somalia’s sovereignty. Al-Shabaab took advantage of this by launching a wide recruitment campaign, benefiting from Somali anger over this memorandum.
Political Conflicts: The Horn of Africa region is experiencing a number of political crises and conflicts that worsen the state of turmoil in the countries within this geographical scope. The latest of these crises is the current conflict in Sudan, which broke out in April 2023 between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. This conflict has expanded geographically, its dimensions have multiplied, its contexts have become more complex, and the chances of resolving it have diminished due to the faltering diplomatic track. In this context, a report issued by U.S. intelligence agencies last March warned that Sudan risks becoming an “ideal” environment for terrorist networks.
In connection with the scene of political conflicts in the Horn of Africa, it is worth mentioning the conflict in the Tigray region, which erupted in November 2020, following the declaration by both the federal government in Addis Ababa and the regional government in Tigray that the other was illegitimate. This resulted in brutal attacks on civilians and the displacement of millions from their homes, leading to multiple repercussions extending to neighboring countries. Although a “Pretoria” agreement was signed between the two sides in November 2022 to stop hostilities, this agreement remains fragile due to the presence of opportunities and incentives for the conflict to reignite in the region.
Ethnic and Tribal Disputes: The complex ethnic and tribal composition of the Horn of Africa region has contributed to the escalation of disputes and conflicts between countries. In this context, the conflict between the Afar and Issa groups, which mainly revolves around water and pastures, can be mentioned. This conflict has witnessed multiple rounds in different geographical areas such as Somalia, Djibouti, and Ethiopia. Additionally, there is the ethnic conflict in Ethiopia due to the discrimination suffered by the Oromo ethnicity from the Amhara and Tigray ethnicities.
Furthermore, the ongoing tribal and clan conflicts in Somalia are a major source of security tension, given the central role of “Clanism” as a key determinant of political and social interactions in the Somali state. Thus, ethnic conflicts, tribal disputes, and racial differences contribute to worsening the state of instability, creating environments favorable to the rise of terrorist activities.
Border Disputes: Border disputes are an important dimension in explaining the turbulent context of the Horn of Africa region. The most notable of these is the maritime dispute between Somalia and Kenya. Kenya’s rejection of the International Court of Justice’s decision in October 2021, which confirms Somalia’s right to sovereignty over the larger part of the disputed maritime area in the Indian Ocean, is a potential source for the resumption of the conflict.
There is also the border dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan over the Al-Fashaga area, which has witnessed successive phases of armed escalation between 2020 and 2022. Tensions have escalated in recent years due to the repercussions of the ongoing conflict in the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia, with thousands of displaced people fleeing to eastern Sudan. There remains an opportunity for the conflict to reignite, especially with the absence of a final resolution.
Additionally, there is also the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan over the Abyei area. This crisis has remained unresolved since South Sudan’s secession from Sudan in 2011, leading to renewed tensions from time to time due to the lack of a clear resolution framework.
Multiple Implications
There are multiple implications that may arise from the activities of terrorist organizations in the turbulent context of the Horn of Africa region, which can be outlined as follows:
Expanding Scope of Threat: The aforementioned scenario reflects the potential for the expansion and spread of the terrorist phenomenon in the region, especially given the overall security instability in the African continent and the Horn of Africa in particular. The expansion of terrorist operations leads to increased levels of violence directed at civilians.
According to the Global Terrorism Index for 2024, Al-Shabaab ranked fourth among the deadliest terrorist groups in 2023, with the number of deaths attributed to its activities reaching about 499 in 2023. Of these deaths, 86% occurred in Somalia and 14% in Kenya.
Inflow of Foreign Fighters: The expansion of terrorist activity in the Horn of Africa may lead to an increased influx of foreign fighters. Several reports have pointed to the inflow of many fighters into the Horn of Africa. The danger posed by these fighters lies in several key factors.
Firstly, they enhance the resilience of terrorist organizations against security pressures. Secondly, they develop the operational and tactical combat strategies of these organizations, drawing on the experiences they have gained from different conflict zones. Thirdly, they serve as links between domestic and international terrorist organizations. Fourthly, they expand the targeting of civilians; recent studies have found that the presence of foreign fighters in conflict zones can increase levels of violence against civilians, including sexual violence.
Threatening Regional Security: Numerous reports have pointed to ongoing coordination between Iran, its proxies, and Al-Shabaab. Senior Somali government officials have indicated that Iran’s interests in the Horn of Africa include establishing secret relations with Al-Shabaab to use Somalia as a conduit for transporting weapons to the Houthis in Yemen and to other countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique.
Similarly, U.S. intelligence revealed in June efforts to arm the Houthis in Yemen and Al-Shabaab, especially in light of the Central Command’s strategy of rapprochement with Iran adopted by Al-Qaeda. This scenario poses major repercussions for regional security, as their coordination leads to escalating threats in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Intensified Links among Violent Actors: Piracy activities have re-emerged off the Somali coast after years of decline, with Somali pirates attacking four ships last December, exploiting the movement of U.S. warships from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea in response to a series of attacks by the Houthis.
Reports have noted the formation of an alliance between Al-Shabaab and pirates, where the former provides protection for the latter in exchange for a significant share of ransom revenues. This cooperation is also evident in the pirates’ use of advanced weapons, which may have been obtained through Al-Shabaab’s arms smuggling network. Although this alliance is not new, its revival poses significant threats in the context of the highly unstable security situation.In conclusion, the Horn of Africa faces major challenges stemming from political instability, which provides ample space for terrorist organizations to operate. Political settlements of conflicts, coupled with achieving high development rates to reduce poverty and cut off recruitment sources, remain key factors in weakening the influence of terrorist organizations and preventing their expansion. This should be done in parallel with security and military efforts that play a significant role in dismantling the infrastructure of terrorist organizations and containing their activities.
