The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) released the eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index for 2024, an annual report published by the institute in English since 2012. Utilizing the Dragonfly’s Terrorism Tracker database along with other sources, the report provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns of terrorism phenomena. It analyzes several related dimensions, such as the socio-economic conditions in which it occurs, and its dynamic nature that changes over time. In the first part of this series, we took an overall look at the toll of terrorist operations and the deadliest terrorist groups in 2023. The second part reviewed the ten countries most affected by terrorism according to the index. This part examines the trends of terrorist activity in different parts of the world in 2023.
Global Terrorism Trends (2007-2023)
Terrorist activity has gone through several distinct phases during the period covered by the index. In 2007 and 2008, this activity was concentrated in Iraq and Afghanistan in response to interventions by the United States and its allies. Consequently, the contagion of terrorism spread to Pakistan, where terrorist activity took an upward trajectory from 2008 to 2013. The events of the Arab Spring and the rise of ISIS led to an increase in terrorist activity across the Middle East from 2011 to 2013, especially in Iraq and Syria.
Simultaneously, the rise of Boko Haram led to an increase in terrorist activity in Nigeria, peaking in 2015 after nearly 11,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks within a single year. Since 2016, deaths from terrorism have begun to decline, with Iraq experiencing a significant decrease in terrorist activity starting from 2017. Meanwhile, Afghanistan saw an increase in this activity from 2016 to 2021, followed by a significant decrease in 2022 after the Taliban’s ascent to power. During the same period, the African Sahel region saw a significant rise in terrorist attacks and deaths, particularly in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Somalia.
The index monitors the most prominent features, manifestations, and trends associated with terrorist activity from 2007 to 2023, which can be outlined as follows:
Growing Terrorist Threat in the Sahel Region: Despite renewed violence in the Middle East and North Africa, the Sahel region remains the epicenter of terrorism, with 48% of global terrorism deaths in 2023, compared to 42% in 2022 and only 1% in 2007. Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Cameroon saw an increase in deaths by at least 33% over the past year. Even with a decrease in deaths in Mali and Chad, total deaths in the Sahel were 38% higher than in 2022.
Decline in Terrorism Deaths in the Middle East and North Africa: Deaths from terrorism in Iraq decreased by 99% from its peak in 2007. This indicates a broader trend in the Middle East and North Africa, where terrorist activities have particularly decreased over the last seven years. The index attributes this to several factors: firstly, the decline in escalation related to the civil war in Syria; secondly, the operational shift of ISIS from the Middle East and North Africa to the Sahel region; and thirdly, enhanced counter-terrorism cooperation at the national and international levels. These developments collectively have mitigated the impact of terrorism across the Middle East and North Africa, except for a resurgence of violence in Israel and Palestine in late 2023.
Decline in Religiously and Politically Motivated Terrorist Activity in the West: Total deaths from terrorism in Western countries peaked in 2016, with 194 deaths, while attacks peaked the following year with 176 attacks. According to the index, the majority of these deaths were caused by Islamic terrorist groups. However, religiously and politically motivated terrorist activity has significantly declined over the past five years. In 2023, the total number of terrorist attacks in the West decreased to 23 attacks, down from 51 attacks in 2022. Despite the decrease in the number of terrorist attacks in Western countries, the number of deaths remained relatively stable, ranging from 20 to 30 annually since 2020.
Political motivations were behind the highest form of terrorism in Western countries in 2023, with 13 politically motivated attacks compared to only two religiously motivated ones. The index highlights indicators suggesting that the events of October 7 could lead to an increase in terrorist activity in Europe, as European security services thwarted several planned terrorist attacks in December 2023.
Increased Terrorist Activity in Conflict Zones: Conflict has been the main driver of terrorism since 2007; among 145,376 terrorism-related deaths between 2007 and 2023, 98% occurred in countries involved in conflict. Last year, 98% of total terrorism deaths occurred in countries experiencing some level of conflict, slightly down from 99% in 2022. According to the index, terrorist attacks tend to be more deadly in geographical areas experiencing more conflict than others, with an average of nearly 3 people per attack in conflict countries in 2023, compared to 0.04 person per attack outside conflict areas.
Despite a decrease in terrorism deaths in wars since their peak in 2017, deaths in minor conflicts have risen, with more than 3,000 deaths due to terrorism in minor conflict situations in 2023. The index argues that countries involved in conflict are more susceptible to terrorism, partly due to the lack of fully functioning state institutions, and terrorism is also one of many tactics used by insurgents and paramilitary forces in civil conflict. For example, terrorist groups like ISIS and Boko Haram carry out traditional military attacks in the context of the jihadist conflict between the two groups, alongside their widespread terrorist activity.
Terrorism Activity Trends in Different Regions
The impact of terrorist activity decreased in five of the nine regions covered by the index during 2023, with the largest improvement in South America. Venezuela and Ecuador recorded no attacks and deaths for the second time since 2013, followed by North America and South America, recording a 13% and 38% decrease, respectively, while the index recorded no changes in Central America and the Caribbean. Russia and Eurasia saw a marginal deterioration last year. The following table illustrates the world regions according to their average scores on the Global Terrorism Index for 2023, in addition to changes in the score from the previous year:
South Asia remains the region most affected by terrorism globally, a position it has held since 2007. Similarly, Central America and the Caribbean region remained the least affected by terrorism in 2023 for the eleventh consecutive year, with 33 deaths from terrorism since 2007, 24% of which occurred in 2009, while the region recorded only one attack in 2023. Sub-Saharan Africa experienced the most significant regional deterioration over the past decade, with a 239% increase in terrorist incidents and injuries since 2013. Meanwhile, terrorism trends in the Middle East and North Africa and Europe improved over the past decade, with a 74% decrease in attacks and a 63% decrease in deaths. In Europe, there was an 88% decrease in deaths from terrorism and a 63% decrease in terrorist attacks over the past ten years. The features and trends of terrorist activity in different regions according to the index are demonstrated as follows:
Asia and the Pacific: Nine countries in the Asia and Pacific region improved in 2023, while only one deteriorated, leading to a decline in the average impact of terrorism in the region for the fifth consecutive year, reaching its lowest level since 2013. Myanmar remained the most affected country in the region for the third consecutive year, recording 444 attacks and 354 deaths in 2023, a 47.8% decrease in attacks and a 26.3% decrease in deaths compared to 2022. The Philippines maintained its second-highest level of terrorism in the region, recording 34 attacks and 39 deaths in 2023.
Central America and the Caribbean: The region has been largely free of terrorist activity over the past decade, despite being severely affected by other forms of conflict. Mexico is the only country in the region that has experienced terrorist activity since 2007, while 11 out of 12 countries have not faced any terrorist incidents in the past five years. Historically, terrorism in Mexico has had ideological or political motivations, and criminal activity by gangs has not been included as terrorist activity in this index. However, while the level of terrorism in Mexico is low, other forms of violence are very high, with at least 64 journalists killed in 2023, up from 13 in 2022. Homicide rates in the country are among the highest in the world, and cartel activity continues to dominate the crime scene despite a decrease in terrorist activity.
Europe: The impact of terrorism in Europe is now lower than at the beginning of the index, with the European countries recording 46 attacks and 7 deaths in 2023, compared to 362 attacks and 736 deaths at the peak of terrorist activity in 2016. Only five countries recorded deaths from terrorism in 2023, and 17 out of 36 countries in the region recorded no deaths. However, 12 countries experienced deterioration in their scores over the past decade, with the strongest deteriorations in Germany and Belgium, reflecting an increase in the latent level of terrorism in the region. Despite the decrease since its peak in 2016, the region is still primed for potential flare-ups in the near future.
According to the index, Turkey recorded the highest levels of terrorism in the region, despite improvements in its scores for seven out of the past ten years, achieving the second-largest improvement in Europe in 2023, with 4 terrorist attacks and 2 deaths in 2023, compared to 591 deaths and 247 attacks in 2016.
Despite the ongoing decrease in terrorism levels, there are signs in European countries in 2023 that raise concerns about potential terrorist threats, as several terrorist plots were thwarted after the 7 October events in Israel. ISIS recorded its first attack in several years in 2023, when an attack on Swedish football fans in Belgium resulted in two deaths. With escalating tensions in the Middle East due to the Israeli military operation in Gaza, the index suggests the likelihood of terrorist activities in Europe.
Middle East and North Africa: There was a high level of variation among countries in the Middle East and North Africa region; while 9 countries recorded significant improvements, 7 countries saw significant deterioration, and 5 countries were completely free of terrorist activity over the past five years. There was a significant decrease in the total number of terrorist attacks, with 580 attacks in 2023, down from 788 attacks in 2022, although the total number of deaths rose from 878 to 2035 deaths.
The index classifies Israel as the most affected country in the region, followed by Syria, which saw a concerning rise in terrorist activity in 2023, with total deaths in the country rising from 226 to 650 deaths, with the level of terrorism steadily increasing since 2015. There are indications that ISIS is increasingly active in the country despite losing its territorial control and may become more active if American forces withdraw from Syrian territory.
According to the index, Libya saw the most significant improvement in the region, with no terrorist attacks or deaths recorded for the first time since 2010, recording only 30 deaths in the past five years, compared to 537 deaths in the five years prior to 2019. Algeria also saw the second-largest improvement in 2023, recording no attacks or deaths due to terrorism and sustaining a decrease in terrorist activity, compared to any country in the region, with a decrease in its total score on the Global Terrorism Index for ten out of the past twelve years.
North America: The level of terrorism impact in North America improved in 2023 due to improvements in Canada, which recorded one attack and one death, down from 8 attacks and 12 deaths in 2018. In contrast, the impact of terrorism in the United States increased, with 16 people killed in 7 attacks. Both countries suffer from higher levels of terrorism than a decade ago. According to the index, the United States has seen a shift from religiously motivated terrorism to politically motivated terrorist activity since 2007, with 60 politically motivated attacks compared to 14 religiously motivated attacks. This change has been particularly noted since 2017, with 5 of the 7 attacks in 2023 associated with individuals with sympathies or connections to the far-right, while no religiously motivated attacks occurred.
According to the index, terrorism in North America is not largely associated with specific terrorist groups; most perpetrators of terrorist attacks were individuals with connections to certain ideologies but no formal membership in a group or party. Out of 113 attacks during the period (2007- 2023), only 15 attacks were associated with specific terrorist groups. This indicates the presence of independent or loosely connected actors shaping the terrorism landscape in the United States, highlighting emerging challenges in understanding and combating terrorism.
Russia and Eurasia: Overall, the region recorded 6 terrorist attacks and 4 deaths due to terrorism in 2023. The region has seen a significant decrease in terrorist activity over the past fifteen years. According to the index, Russia remains the most affected country by terrorism in the region, recording 3 terrorist attacks in 2023, down from 4 in 2022. However, the number of deaths remained unchanged since 2021, at an annual rate of 2 deaths, representing a 99% decrease compared to the peak of terrorist activity in the country in 2010, when 327 attacks and 274 deaths were recorded. Tajikistan saw the largest improvement in the index score in the region in 2023, with no terrorist incidents or deaths recorded since 2019.
South America: The impact of terrorism in South America improved in 2023, with eight countries improving their scores and two recording no change. Colombia was the only country in the region that saw a deterioration in its score between 2022 and 2023. According to the index, the total number of deaths due to terrorism in the region increased by 83%, from 46 in 2022 to 84 deaths in 2023, all recorded in Colombia. The overall level of terrorism remains the same as a decade ago. While Chile and Brazil saw significant increases in terrorism over the past ten years, the rest of the region, led by Peru and Paraguay, recorded significant improvements.
South Asia: The region recorded the highest average score on the index, a position it has maintained over the past decade. However, this average has been improving since 2019, attributed by the index to a decrease in the number of terrorist attacks and deaths in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan. For the first time since 2007, the number of deaths within the region dropped to less than 900 deaths, largely due to a significant decrease in Afghanistan. Pakistan is now the most affected country in the region, experiencing a continuous increase in incidents and deaths since 2019. In 2023, the country saw a 34% increase in the number of attacks, from 365 to 490 attacks. Similarly, the number of deaths increased by 35% from 509 to 689 deaths. However, Pakistan has significantly improved compared to a decade ago, with a 54% decrease in deaths and a 66% decrease in injuries.
Sub-Saharan Africa: The average impact of terrorism slightly deteriorated in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2023; among 28 countries that recorded global deterioration between 2022 and 2023, 10 were in Sub-Saharan Africa. According to the index, there is a high degree of variability in terrorist activity in the region, with 15 countries recording improvements. Overall, 22 countries in the region scored zero on the index, indicating that they recorded no terrorist incidents in the past five years. The number of terrorist attacks in the region decreased by 12% in 2023, reaching 1205 attacks, down from 1368 attacks in 2022. However, the number of deaths increased by 21% to 4916 deaths.
According to the index, Angola recorded the largest deterioration in the index score in the region in 2023, with three soldiers and two Brazilian civilians killed in an armed attack on a military vehicle in May 2023, claimed by the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda. Uganda experienced the second-largest deterioration in the region in 2023, witnessing a resurgence of ISIS activity. Benin and Togo also saw continued deterioration in 2023, driven by the spread of extremist jihadist groups in the Sahel region. Tanzania was the most improved country in the region in 2023, while Burundi and the Ivory Coast did not record any incidents for the second year in a row and Rwanda recorded no incidents for the fourth consecutive year.
