The global geopolitical and geoeconomic competition has shifted from the traditional battles over oil and natural gas to a fierce contest in new arenas, including rare minerals, strategic ports, civil and military space technology, and now, seabed mineral deposits. These resources are becoming pivotal as they fuel industries ranging from construction and electronics to electric vehicles, renewable energy, batteries, and advanced military systems.
This paper examines the landscape of seabed mineral exploration and the key facets of global competition over marine resources, particularly between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China, while providing an in-depth analysis of the underlying motives driving this rivalry and the major challenges emerging from the quest for dominance over these valuable mineral deposits.
I. Map of Subsea Mineral Deposits
The seabed harbors three principal varieties of mineral deposits, namely cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts (CFCs), polymetallic sulfides (PMS), and polymetallic nodules (PMNs). These deposits are crucial sources of essential elements, including cobalt, manganese, copper, nickel, tellurium, and yttrium.
The exploration and extraction of marine minerals are regulated by the International Seabed Authority (ISA) within the framework of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which was signed in 1982 and came into effect in 1994. The UNCLOS establishes a unified legal framework for the use of global sea and ocean waters, ensuring the protection of environmental and marine resources while promoting fair resource utilization. Additionally, it also covers aspects related to state sovereignty over maritime domains, maritime area usage, and navigation rights.
The UNCLOS has effectively contributed to tackling several critical issues regarding ocean use and sovereignty, including establishing key principles such as freedom of navigation, delineating territorial waters at 12 nautical miles from the coast, setting exclusive economic zones (EEZ) up to 200 nautical miles from shore, outlining guidelines for extending the outer limit of continental shelf fixed at 350 nautical miles, establishing mechanisms for resolving disputes.
After prolonged negotiations to regulate subsea mining, the United Nations approved the first High Seas Treaty in March 2023. This updated framework builds on the UNCLOS and aims to designate 30% of international waters as protected areas while imposing binding international protection on high seas biodiversity. Figure 1 illustrates the global distribution of subsea mineral deposits.
Figure 1: Global mapping of subsea mineral deposits
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the volume of PMN, which are rich in cobalt, manganese, copper, and nickel, could reach up to two trillion tons in international waters. Manganese is one of the most plentiful elements on the sea floor, with an estimated 227 billion tons, followed by iron at 219 billion tons and magnesium at around 16.9 billion tons, as illustrated in figure 2.
Figure 2: Estimated reserves of marine minerals in the deep sea
Under UN agreements and international law, countries with mineral deposits within their EEZ, extending 200 nautical miles from their coasts, are permitted to extract these resources, provided they adhere to environmental regulations. However, these zones primarily contain PMS and CFC. In contrast, PMN, which are rich in rare earth elements, are predominantly found in international waters, particularly in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. This region spans 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles) across the central Pacific Ocean, at depths ranging from 4,000 to 5,500 meters (12,000 to 18,000 feet).
Figure 3: PMN reserves in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone
The Clarion-Clipperton Zone has become a focal point in the international seabed competition, with the ISA estimating over 21 billion tonnes of PMN in the region, including approximately 5.95 billion tonnes of manganese, 0.27 billion tonnes of nickel, 0.23 billion tonnes of copper, and 0.05 billion tonnes of cobalt. These elements are crucial for many high-tech applications, notably in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles, making the Clarion-Clipperton Zone a significant player in the global economic arena.
II. Manifestations of Competition over Marine Minerals
Given the intensifying global economic crises that affect countries worldwide and amplify the uncertainty in the economic landscape, the international stage is increasingly witnessing what can be termed a “resource war,” which extends beyond traditional energy resources and rare earth minerals to encompass subsea minerals and deposits. The key manifestations of this international rivalry are evident in the following aspects:
China’s Voraciousness: The Chinese government has prioritized “subsea mining” as a strategic and economic objective within its broader plan to control global mineral supply chains. Towards that, it has encouraged state-owned enterprises and companies to develop innovative seabed extraction technologies and to invest heavily in unmanned submarines for mapping mineral and rare earth deposits in in the ocean’s depths. Additionally, China has deployed advanced ships and submarines in nearby waters, such as the South China Sea, and established numerous universities and research institutions focused on this matter, including Dalian Maritime University, Ocean University of China, and the Institute of Deep-Sea Science and Engineering at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Moreover, Beijing has established itself as a leader in the mineral processing sector, positioning itself as a primary hub for minerals before they are transformed into finished products. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that China processes approximately 42% of global copper, 56% of nickel, 65% of lithium, 74% of cobalt, 90% of rare earth elements, and 100% of graphite.
As a result, China has obtained five seabed exploration licenses in international waters out of the 30 licenses issued by the ISA up to early 2024, in anticipation of initiating deep-sea mining by 2025. This grants China exploration rights over 92,000 square miles of international waters, accounting for 17% of the total licensed area. Figure 4 illustrates the countries that have been granted seabed exploration licenses, along with the corresponding number of licenses issued to each.
Figure 4: Number of Seabed Exploration Licenses Issued
Source: Deep-Sea Minerals: The Next Arena of U.S.-China Competition publication, Baron Public Affairs
Seabed exploration licenses are issued across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, with 17 licenses in the Pacific, 7 in the Indian Ocean, and 5 in the Atlantic. Notably, the 17 licenses in the Pacific are concentrated in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, where countries are vying to explore PMN more extensively compared to PMS and CFC.
US Ambitions: Recognizing the security challenges posed by China’s leading role in marine resource extraction, the NOAA has launched the National Ocean Mapping, Exploration, and Characterization (NOMEC) strategy in June 2020. This strategy aims to coordinate seabed mapping and exploration within the US EEZ, with five ambitious goals namely 1) coordinating interagency efforts and resources to map, explore, and characterize the United States EEZ; 2) mapping the US EEZ; 3) exploring and characterizing priority areas of the US EEZ; 4) developing and maturing new and emerging science and technologies to map, explore, and characterize the US EEZ; and 5) building public and private partnerships to map, explore, and characterize the US EEZ.
To counteract Chinese dominance and secure crucial mineral resources, the US Congress authorized a $2 million Pentagon study on subsea mining in May 2024. Following this decision, the United States has sought to expand its continental shelf in the Bering Sea, Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Gulf of Mexico by approximately one million square kilometers. However, these claims have encountered significant obstacles, including opposition from Russia and China, and the United States’ lack of ratification of the UNCLOS. As a result, Moscow and Beijing argue that the United States lacks a legal foundation for these territorial extensions.
Competition over the Pacific Islands: The Pacific Islands are central to the ongoing global competition for seabed resources, with major powers striving to extend their influence in the region to gain access to marine minerals and deposits. China, in particular, is working to expand its influence to bolster its diplomatic and strategic interests in the region, diminish Taiwan’s global presence, and secure access to vital raw materials and natural resources. To that end, it ramped up infrastructure projects in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative, forged security and economic agreements, increased economic and development aid, and engaged in diplomatic activities with countries of the region, evident by the visits by the prime ministers of Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands to China in July 2024. Additionally, Beijing is working to strengthen its security and defense ties with Nauru and has resumed diplomatic relations with it in January 2024, following the latter’s decision to sever ties with Taiwan.
On the other hand, under President Joe Biden, the US administration unveiled the first ever US Pacific Islands Partnership Strategy in September 2022 during a summit that brought together twelve island leaders. This Strategy includes a substantial $810 million aid package for the region. To enhance its diplomatic footprint in the region, Washington appointed its first-ever special envoy to the Pacific Islands to join the Pacific Islands Forum and launched an undersea internet cable initiative in partnership with Australia to support countries of the region. Furthermore, in May 2023, the United States signed a defense cooperation pact with Papua New Guinea, granting American military personnel unrestricted access to six major ports in the country.
Japan, too, has been an active player in this competitive landscape, progressively seeking to expand its security and defense partnerships with countries of the Pacific Islands. This effort aims to bolster the maritime surveillance abilities of these countries and fortify their responses to climate and geopolitical threats, while also fostering dialogue on shared security concerns and challenges.
National Endeavors: Beyond the global competition for marine resources, several countries are also making individual efforts to capitalize on the mineral wealth within their EEZ. In June 2023, Norway unveiled plans to open segments of its continental shelf to mining, inviting applications for seabed mining licenses across 280,000 square kilometers in the Greenland Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea. Consequently, in early 2024, the Norwegian Parliament approved a proposal to designate a vast ocean region for commercial deep-sea mining, positioning Norway as the first country to permit commercial deep-sea mining in an extensive ocean area. As such, Norway has become a pioneer in allowing such ventures to counter China’s supremacy in rare earth mineral supply chains.
Environmental Pushback: International efforts to explore marine minerals are met with growing opposition to commercial subsea mining due to environmental concerns. Germany, France, Spain, New Zealand, Costa Rica, Chile, Panama, Palau, Fiji, and the Federated States of Micronesia are leading the charge against international offshore mining activities. Conversely, the United Kingdom demands robust scientific evidence of potential impacts on deep-sea ecosystems before endorsing or supporting offshore mining licenses. Meanwhile, the United States, Norway, Japan, and South Korea advocate for seabed mineral exploitation as a critical component of energy and national security strategies.
III. Motivations Driving the Race for Deep-Sea Mining
The heightened international competition for deep-sea mining and control over subsea minerals and deposits is driven by several underlying factors, reflecting the rising importance of rare minerals across multiple economic sectors, as demonstrated by the following points:
The Global Race for Energy Transition: The strategic geographical concentration of oil and natural gas reserves has allowed certain countries to safeguard their national interests and enhance their economic and political clout. By leveraging control over energy exports and pricing, these countries have wielded their resources as geopolitical tools. A similar scenario may unfold with countries vying to dominate the supply chains of rare minerals, which are crucial for renewable energy production. As international efforts intensify to address climate change and mitigate its economic impacts, the demand for renewable energy sources surged in 2023 and 2024. Projections suggest that the share of renewable energy in global electricity supplies will rise from 30% in 2023 to 35% by 2025, and for the first time in history, renewable energy is expected to surpass coal in the global energy mix by 2025.
The IEA anticipates a dramatic increase in mineral consumption by 2040, with renewable energy technologies expected to drive over 40% of copper demand, 60% of cobalt demand, and 70% and 90% of the demand for nickel and lithium, respectively. The World Bank projects that to meet this growing demand for renewable energy, mineral extraction will need to expand fivefold by 2050.
The Surge in Electric Car Production: The competition for minerals is not an isolated goal but a strategic means to a broader end. Minerals, for instance, are crucial for the battery and electric car industry, which relies on six times more minerals compared to fossil fuel-powered vehicles. With projections indicating a surge in electric car sales in the coming years, the demand for seabed minerals is expected to rise accordingly. By the end of 2024, electric car sales are anticipated to reach around 17 million cars, marking a 20% annual increase, thereby driving up competition for these vital resources. Governments in Europe and Asia have set ambitious targets for electric vehicle sales and are implementing strategies to phase out fossil fuel-powered vehicles. These include financial incentives for consumers, expanding charging infrastructure, and providing subsidies for manufacturers. Additionally, they are drawing more foreign companies into the sector, enhancing battery production, and working to reduce China’s dominance in the battery market, where over 80% of components are produced—perhaps this explains why battery costs in China have dropped to $126 per kilowatt-hour on average, while the United States and Europe have seen increases of 11% and 20%, respectively.
Achieving Military Objectives: The link between minerals and national security is undeniable, as they play a critical role in the production of military equipment, vehicles, aircraft, submarines, and weapons. They are also essential in building tools for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations, making mineral supplies vital to bolstering military strength. The US Department of Defense, for instance, consumes roughly 750,000 tons of minerals annually to develop technologies that enhance national security. In response, Pentagon researchers initiated a project to extract rare minerals crucial for military technologies from domestic sources using ultra-compact equipment. Additionally, the Pentagon has funded several initiatives to advance mineral processing within the United States, while former President Donald Trump signed an executive order to boost local production of rare minerals. In 2018, rare earth elements were officially added to the list of critical minerals essential to both the U.S. economy and national security.
Simultaneously, the European Union added rare earth elements to the list of critical raw materials for the EU, aiming to decrease dependency on imports by strengthening domestic production. To this end, the EU launched a dedicated strategy to secure access to raw materials, initiated the EURARE project to advance mining and refining of mineral deposits, and established the European Rare Earths Competency Network (ERECON) to address the challenges in the rare earths sector and identify key European regions for resource exploitation in this industry.
Population Growth and Economic Development: UN projections show that the world population will continue to increase, reaching 8.5 billion by 2030, approximately 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100. This growth will be driven by factors such as increased life expectancy, rising urbanization, and accelerated migration. The pace of urbanization is expected to escalate, with more megacities (with populations over 10 million) emerging, further straining energy and natural resource supplies. Additionally, the rapid industrial and economic expansion in developed countries will heighten demand for both fossil and clean energy, intensifying competition between these countries for rare earth minerals to sustain growth and economic development.
Chinese Concerns: Beijing views marine minerals as a strategic alternative in case disruptions occur in its terrestrial mineral supplies from Africa. This concern is heightened by the sharp drop in Chinese loans to African countries, which plummeted from a peak of about $28 billion in 2016 to under $1 billion in 2022. Loans have played a key role in China’s economic ties with Africa, and a diminished footprint on the continent could weaken its ability to access crucial minerals, threatening its global standing in the rare earths industry. Moreover, China is wary that terrestrial mining alone may not meet the growing demand for renewable energy and battery production, driving its pursuit of marine resources to secure its dominance in global supply chains.
IV. Persistent Challenges
While deep-sea mining offers significant economic advantages, it also presents a range of environmental, economic, and financial challenges and risks, which can be outlined as follows:
Harm to Marine Ecosystems: Deep-sea mining poses substantial risks, primarily due to the release of sediment laden with toxic gases during the extraction process. This can endanger biodiversity, disrupt marine food chains, and threaten fish and marine mammal populations. Additionally, the loss of coral reefs, which support over 25% of marine biodiversity and house more than 1,300 species, is a critical concern. The removal of thick seabed sediment during mining threatens the potential extinction of marine organisms inhabiting these areas.
According to a Japanese study featured in Current Biology, even a brief two-hour mining operation can have prolonged effects that can persist for over a year. The research revealed that, after one year of mining tests, a 43% reduction in fish and shrimp populations in areas directly affected by sediment pollution, with a further 56% decline in surrounding regions.
Climate Impact of Deep-Sea Mining: Deep-sea mining intensifies the challenges of climate change due to its energy-intensive nature, leading to a substantial rise in thermal emissions. According to a study by Planet Trakker, extracting copper, nickel, cobalt, and manganese from PMN releases between 1.371 kg and 2.03 kg of CO₂ per kilogram of minerals. Additionally, 80% to 85% of the climate impact stems from mineral processing, which requires enormous amounts of energy and fossil fuels.
In addition, deep-sea mining poses a severe threat to the oceans’ natural ability to sequester carbon, as the oceans currently absorb 30% of carbon dioxide and 90% of the excess heat generated by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Seagrasses and mangroves, which can sequester carbon at rates up to four times higher than terrestrial forests, are particularly at risk. Mining activities jeopardize these ecosystems, potentially releasing stored carbon back into the ocean and atmosphere.
These data suggest that while the deep-sea mining industry plays a crucial role in producing electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies, it also hinders the progress of the energy transition. This underscores that the primary driver behind the global competition for marine minerals is geopolitical, rather than environmental.
Heightened Uncertainty: The deep sea remains the most unexplored region on Earth, and the economic value of deep-sea mining is still uncertain due to numerous technical challenges in the extraction process. This underscores the necessity for increased scientific research to evaluate and manage the sustainable use of these resources, keeping deep-sea mining in an experimental phase for now.
High Economic Costs: Investing in mineral exploration and production remains expensive due to the challenges of obtaining licenses and the lengthy environmental impact assessment process, which can take 8 to 12 years to secure permits. Since 2021, the cost of constructing offshore equipment has surged by 18%, and renting offshore drilling platforms has skyrocketed by over 200%. Additionally, the process of gathering offshore data is both time-consuming and costly. Moreover, restoring deep-sea ecosystems and repairing mining damage cost between $5.3 million and $5.7 million per square kilometer, potentially doubling the $2.7 million cost of mining per square kilometer.
In summary, the longstanding economic challenge of “resource scarcity” —the gap between limited resources and rising global demand— is directly tied to the intense geopolitical rivalry among major powers over securing rare minerals from the seabed to maintain critical supply chains for the renewable energy sector, as well as for the military and electronics industries, which are growing in strategic importance year by year. As a result, countries are vying for a share in the mineral market to uphold their position in the global economy. However, the rising environmental and economic challenges tied to the deep-sea mining industry demand thorough studies to assess costs and returns, alongside the creation of strategies and policies to mitigate the environmental risks associated with deep-sea mining.
