The US presidential elections, which brought about a new Democratic administration headed by Joe Biden, seems to have cast its shadows over the region. The change of administration will affect various issues in the Middle East, including the planned Israeli elections in March 2021 and the Palestinian elections, the first round of which is scheduled for May 2021.
The 24th Knesset elections are scheduled for 23 March, and they are the fourth in less than two years. Palestinian President Abu Mazen issued a decree on 15 January stating that the elections will be held in three phases in all Palestinian cities, including Jerusalem, as follows:
The first stage, the legislative election, is scheduled for 23 May, the results of which will be considered as the first stage in the formation of the Palestinian National Council. The second stage is the presidential elections, scheduled for 31 July. The third stage is Palestinian National Council elections, which will be held on 31 August in accordance with the statute of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the national understandings so that such elections will take place wherever possible.
These recent changes shall have their impact on the region during the coming phase, the most of which are the changes at both the Israeli and Palestinian levels, especially with regard to the peace process that has been stalled for nearly seven years. The importance of these changes will be multiplied by the vision of the new US administration to adopt the principle of a two-state solution to solve the Palestinian cause, which is different from the vision of the Trump administration, that adopted the deal of the century that was rejected by the Palestinians, the Arabs, and even most of the world.
On the Israeli level, the right and far right are likely to hold a majority in the upcoming Knesset elections, according to the latest polls. At the same time, Likud still has the majority of seats compared to other parties. Moreover, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still viewed as the most suitable candidate for prime minister, more than his chief rival.
By extrapolating the polls conducted so far, as well as the movements of the leaders of the various Israeli parties, the following can be noted:
Likud has not succeeded in increasing its seats significantly, as expected, despite Israel’s successful normalization agreements with Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates, and Netanyahu’s management of the COVID-19 crisis and the provision of its vaccine. The reason for this is the corruption accusations against Netanyahu and the demonstrations against his government.
The Blue and White Party headed by Benny Gantz, which represented in the previous elections the hope for change, has suffered a severe setback. It could lose about a third of its seats in the next elections, from 13 to five seats. In tandem, Gantz did not succeed in imposing his party’s presence at a time when Netanyahu succeeded in influencing his position, which showed Gantz as a weak figure and affected his political future.
Furthermore, the Israeli left and the centre-left continue to suffer from the absence of a leadership that is capable of regrouping it as a powerful force or presenting itself as a political alternative to the right that is in control of the Knesset and the government. This has led former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak to try to return to political life despite the fact that Tommy Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid Party, seeks to present himself as a leader of the movement.
The biggest threat Netanyahu will face in the upcoming elections is the lack of unity between the right and religious parties, despite being the majority as a whole so far with more than 80 seats in total.
On the ground, right-wing parties exist in separate blocs, especially after Gideon Sa’ar withdrew from the Likud and established the New Hope Party. This new party could win more than 15 seats and compete against Netanyahu for the premiership.
There is a possibility for Sa’ar to form a coalition with one of the centre parties (Lapid) with one tactical goal, that is not to enable Netanyahu to become prime minister for the sixth time.
On the Palestinian level, there is no doubt that the understandings recently made between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, their speeches and the preliminary meetings that preceded them contributed, to a great extent, in creating the climate suitable for issuing the presidential decree on elections. According to the decree, all parties agree on the need to develop a new phase that would end the Palestinian divide, build political partnership and achieve national unity through democratic elections with full proportional representation.
The presidential decree issued by Abu Mazen is a strategic decision, since no presidential elections have been held since 2005 or legislative elections since 2006. The decision to hold elections is therefore aimed at achieving the following four objectives:
The first objective is the renewal of the legitimacy of political and parliamentary institutions, bringing the Palestinian situation to a new stage that reflects the nature and consequences of any changes that may have occurred on the Palestinian scene at earlier stages.
The second objective is the political mobility in the stalled internal Palestinian situation that has been on the rise for more than 15 years.
The third objective is to affirm the Palestinian leadership’s desire for real change in various governing institutions.
The fourth objective is to send a message to the international community that the Palestinian leadership is keen on a democratic process when the conditions are appropriate.
At the same time, the elections will have a significant impact on the Palestinian domestic and foreign policy in light of the following six factors:
Factor one: The presidential elections are the most important stage in the three phases of the elections, since they will result in the election of the president of the Palestinian Authority, who will therefore be the head of State of Palestine. He will be the principal and first person to be dealt with by the international community and its various institutions and will have the freedom of internal and external movement.
Factor two: The extent to which there are acceptable and agreed-upon candidates for the Palestinian presidential elections who are able to assume responsibility for the next stage, bearing in mind that President Abu Mazen still represents the safest choice for the Palestinian position as a whole.
Factor three: The ability of Fatah to rearrange its cards in order to regain the majority in the Legislative Council, which it lost by a large margin for Hamas in the previous elections.
Factor four: How Hamas is able to maintain the majority it had previously obtained in the 2006 elections, which enabled it to form the government and head the Legislative Council.
Factor five: The extent to which new parties, fronts, lists, common lists or individuals can participate in the elections, as well as the ability of each to gain the most seats.
Factor six: The extent to which the results of the first phase of the elections relating to the elections for the Legislative Council affect the nature and results of the second and third phases, in particular the presidential elections.
At the same time, the Palestinian electoral process will face some difficulties, the most important of which are two major difficulties. First, whether or not the elections can be held in Jerusalem, and the nature of the Israeli position expected in this regard, as it is a Palestinian requirement for elections to be held at home as a whole. Second, the extent to which the Palestinian factions are able to avoid setting impeding conditions during the preliminary dialogues that will take place during the next stage, as they must reach understandings about all matters related to the electoral process and the nature of political participation.
If the presidential decree to hold the elections is in response to the demands of the Palestinian street, organizations and factions, even if it is late, it requires that all Palestinian factions and organizations rise above their partisan interests and keep in mind the higher Palestinian interest. It is not logical or acceptable to view elections as a means of achieving special interests.
All Palestinian factions must focus on how these elections can be a step up for Palestine, especially ending the division that has been wearing the state for more than 14 years. This is expected to be the priority in the Palestinian dialogues to be hosted by Egypt in the coming period.
The results of these variables that the region will experience during the next phase, namely, the policy of the new US administration towards the Palestinian cause, the results of the Israeli elections and the results of the Palestinian elections, all of which will have a significant impact on the Middle East peace process and on the extent to which the political position can be advanced or not.
Finally, it should be noted that President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi made a very important visit to Jordan on 18 June. The fruitful talks between the Egyptian president and the Jordanian monarch and their agreement on all issues of common interest were preceded one day by the visit of the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and the head of the Jordanian Intelligence Service to Ramallah and their important meeting with the Palestinian President, Abu Mazen, on 17 January. All these moves affirm the Egyptian and Jordanian support of the Palestinian cause.
Egyptian-Jordanian-Palestinian coordination will have positive results in the coming period, especially since Egypt and Jordan regard the Palestinian cause as a national security issue for both countries and fully agree on the need to implement the principle of a two-state solution, which means the establishment of an independent Palestinian State based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, living side by side next to Israel in peace, security and stability.
In my view, both Egypt and Jordan are the main states in the region that prioritize the Palestinian cause and make every effort to keep this central Arab issue in the spotlight despite all the conflicts in the region. Egypt and Jordan, with their distinctive qualities and relations with all parties, will lead the Arab and international efforts to make 2021 the year of the re-establishment of the Palestinian cause and the establishment of a Palestinian State, hopefully with the conclusion of its arrangements this year.
