The Libyan conundrum is one of the most significant crises the Arab region has been experiencing for over a decade and one that carries considerable implications for Egypt’s national security. Frequently, whenever an opportunity arises that can be capitalized on to end the crisis, several obstacles appear on the horizon that impede its resolution, which prolongs the crisis and increases its complexity.
In this article, I will focus on presenting the key requirements for defusing the Libyan crisis without going into the political and military developments that took place over the previous years, as these have become so easily available to everyone and addressing them will be more of a chronological account that will add nothing new.
In a couple of days, Libya will celebrate the 11th anniversary of the 17 February Revolution that aimed at transforming Libya for the better in all areas, i.e. changing the a state that Libyans viewed disproportionate to the status of their country, one that retains enormous capabilities that qualify it to have high regional and international standing. Surprisingly, the 17 February Revolution’s goal remains unfulfilled to date.
A look at the developments that took place in Libya over the past eleven years would reveal several features that characterized this difficult period Libya’s history, including:
- Overall, instability, save for in limited times. In some instances, instability went so far giving rise to wars or the rise of terrorist groups, which posed grave threats to Libya’s national security.
- Multiplicity of initiatives geared towards setting out a road map to resolve the Libyan crisis. However, these initiatives failed to put forward the hoped-for comprehensive resolution, notwithstanding the organizational successes, institutional structures, and compromised solutions they gave rise to, including the Skhirat Agreement, the First and Second Berlin Conferences, Cairo Declaration, Paris Conference, Tripoli’s Conference to support Libya’s stability, and initiatives of neighboring countries.
- Multiplicity of international and regional actors directly involved in the Libyan crisis (e.g. Turkey, the United States, Russia, France, and Italy) which further complicated the crisis.
- Failure of meetings emanating from the proposed initiatives to bring the crisis to safety despite certain successes in some stages, particularly in the military aspect (5+5 Joint Military Commission). However, that success remains partial and may be exposed to setbacks at any time.
- Refrainment of international forces from engaging effectively in solving the crisis despite their ability to play a more active role, due to their primary focus on protecting and maximizing their gains more than any other goal.
- Conviction of the involved political and military forces –given realities on the ground– that a military resolution to the Libyan crisis is impossible and that the political solution is the only way out for Libya.
- The continued presence of armed groups, militias, and mercenaries on Libyan soil aggravates the situation, particularly with no prospects on the horizon that suggest resolution of this dilemma, although all the proposed initiatives agreed on the need to dislodge these groups from Libya.
- The United Nations (UN) played a role in the Libyan crisis by proposing compromise solutions; however, the UN efforts, extending over years, weren’t effective enough to end the crisis. Fair to say the UN is not in a position to impose a solution that the Libyans are not satisfied with.
Clearly, Libya’s failure to hold the presidential elections, scheduled for 24 December 2021, was quite revealing of how complex the crisis is and how it is difficult to build consensus around this major institutional milestone that could have changed the situation, even relatively.
Indeed, there has been growing rivalry among the key political leadership and differences over interpretations of some laws and legislations; so, postponement of the elections was a natural and logical decision given the lack of general consensus, which suggests that the problem is far greater than holding the elections, whether presidential or parliamentary.
Perhaps a bright spot on the postponement of elections was the stunning example that Libyans set, pronouncing themselves positively when they rushed to obtain their voter cards, confirming their willingness to bring about positive change. In this vein, data indicates that about two and a half million Libyans (out of three million citizens registered) received their voter cards. I think this figure should be considered carefully as it truly reflects the lofty aspirations of the Libyan people and their dissatisfaction with persistence of the status quo indefinitely
As far as I judge, the current situation in Libya suggests that the existing dynamics will continue to exist, ranging from developing initiatives, to increasing rivalry between competing figures, and settling scores between them, and may even rise to uncalculated security tensions. Definitely, this situation doesn’t rebound to the benefit of the Libyan people, which raises several questions such as: how can the current reality be changed? What will be the vehicle for the political solution? Which party is most committed to the interests of Libya? What is the role of the Libyan people? These are all legitimate questions particularly given fears of prolongation of the crisis which would result in foreign interventions and internal complications that will take the country to a deadlock that would take Libyans ten more years to get out of it.
I believe the Libyan crisis is at a crossroads after these long years full of developments and obstacles. As such, the way out of the current impasse would require the following:
- The national Libyan leadership responsible for decision-making –no matter how varied their orientations are– are now required to cast their differences aside and try to agree as much as possible on a unified vision to save Libya from an uncertain fate.
- Libyan decision-makers must be fully convinced that foreign interventions will never be keen on Libyan interests, and that all what foreign actors care about is their economic and security interests, even if this comes at the expense of the future of the Libyan people, their institutions, and leaders.
- Libyan leadership need to be convinced that the initiatives put forward by some regional and international powers are merely visions that help reach a solution. Thus, all or some of these initiatives can be taken advantage of as long as they serve the interests of the Libyans.
- Building consensus among Libyan leadership is not impossible. Realities indicate that numerous agreements, that couldn’t have imagined, have been forged recently. However, such consensus must be inclusive as long as the ultimate goal is Libya and not any other goal whatever its merits. Libyan leadership must be convinced that Libya will not rise except through coordinated efforts of all Libyans, except those who do not put Libya’s interests in the first place.
- The Libyan-Libyan solution will remain the only way out of the Libyan crisis. I’m convinced that there is no other solution otherwise. Notably, when Egypt proposed the so-called Cairo Declaration in June 2020, it was promoted as being a Libyan-Libyan initiative rather than being an Egyptian vision.
In tandem with these movements at the leadership level, all components of Libyan society need to play a major role in the coming period, by being more effective within their representative institutions, moving purely in the interest of accelerating the restoration of a united and stable Libya, setting aside their differences for the greater good of Libya.
Certainly, such a peaceful popular movement will force stakeholders and foreign forces that seek securing their interests to listen to this unified national voice, as they will come to realize that the Libyan people have the final say. This will also prompt the conflicting leadership to make a unified decision, by achieving consensus on the foundations necessary to resolve the crisis in a manner that achieves interests of the Libyan people, whether with regard to unifying institutions or agreeing on the timing of the elections or the constitution, among other issues that aren’t difficult to reach consensus on as long as strong will exists. If this is to happen, the international community will rise for the honorable Libyan people and will voluntarily provide them with all possible assistance, but only after they have taken self-determined decisions.
I will always remain convinced that all national Libyan leaders are capable of reaching consensus and rising above their differences, irrespective of their nature or cause. If this historic step is to be taken, the current status quo will be changed in no time as long as it responds to demands of the Libyan people who will not like to see their country deeply divided with two competing governments or parliaments or see duplication among governing institutions. A united Libya is only possible with one authority and unified decision.
I call on all Libyan brothers to work towards a broad consensus and start a new era after which we can say the Libyan crisis has been resolved only when the Libyans have decided their fate and realized that only them and not any foreign force can make the bright future that awaits for them.
Finally, I should point out that Egypt will, at all times, provide support and sustenance to the Libyan people. I implore every upstanding Libyan citizen to thoroughly look into the words of President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi delivered before the Paris Conference on Libya on 12 November 2021 where his excellency called on the Libyan people, descendants of Omar Al-Mukhtar to use the president’s words, to draw on the determination of their ancestors for freedom, independence, and building of their state with a free Libyan will.
