The South China Sea has evolved into a fiercely contested arena, with some analysts even predicting that it will be one of the most volatile flashpoints in the future. It is increasingly seen as a potential battleground between the growing power of China and the United States along with its allies. In August, tensions escalated in the Renai Reef within the Spratly Islands, or the Second Thomas Shoal area as per the Chinese delineation. This escalation unfolded as Chinese Coast Guard forces directed a water cannon at Philippine Coast Guard resupply ships en route to the disputed island. The incident sparked a dispute between the two countries, characterized by Manila as an excessive and offensive act, while Beijing framed it as a display of measured restraint.
History of Conflict
The recent incident is just one in a series of ongoing disputes and confrontations in the region. These incidents have ranged from blockades to instances where lasers were directed at watchtowers.
The disputes between the two countries over the ship—the accident’s focus—started in 1999 when the Philippine warship Sierra Madre docked in the Renai Jiao, which China deemed to be against the law and for which it demanded the ship be withdrawn. But up to this point, the pledge to remove that ship has not been kept, and because of the US desire for a stronger presence there under the pretext of supporting the Philippines, it has become the focus of skirmishes. Despite this, China allowed the Philippines to resupply the marines on board with supplies, but it blocked the delivery of supplies needed to repair the ship.
The Philippines sank the ship on purpose in 1999 to assert sovereignty over the contested Spratly Islands, which are also claimed by Beijing. Beijing claims it has the right to approximately 80 percent of the South China Sea in what is known as the nine-dash line, which extends from the Chinese mainland to the waters near Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei.
Concerning China’s water cannon attacks on Philippine ships, a similar incident occurred in November 2021, prompting the Philippines to summon the Chinese ambassador, at which point they accused Beijing of illegal behavior and dangerous maneuvers and received support from a number of countries, led by the United States, France, Japan, and Australia.
In spite of occasional clashes, the Philippines has had to tread carefully over the past few years in order to keep open lines of communication with China. That said, it has also been exposed to a number of incidents, including China’s use of a high-energy laser against a Philippine Coast Guard ship in February of this year, as well as an increase in naval drills in the South China Sea.
Indicators of Escalation
In the event that China’s takeover of Thomas Shoal becomes inevitable, and in light of the Philippines’ desire to maintain control over the disputed coral reefs, this incident carries a number of indicators of escalation between the two countries, including the following:
- US Provocation: The US State Department threatened to intervene if Manila was attacked, alleging that China had violated international law. In a statement issued at the time of the incident, the Pentagon said it supports the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration Ruling. The United States also made efforts to increase its presence in the South China Sea by leveraging its defense relationship with the Philippines and by encouraging other allies, such as Japan and Australia, to do the same. The current president of the Philippines has made cooperation with these countries one of his top priorities, but without excessive reliance. The initial presence of these countries was facilitated by joint exercises between Washington and Manila, some of which took place in April 2023 and were regarded as their largest joint exercises to date.
The US has previously stated that it is concerned about Beijing’s reclamation projects in Manila Bay, which are being carried out in order to create more artificial islands. The US has also worked to raise awareness of these projects’ negative environmental effects throughout the world and to have discussions with Manila about them, particularly given that the company carrying out these projects is on the US blacklist.
It is interesting to note the contradiction between how the US dealt with Chinese and Russian joint maneuvers off the coast of Alaska in its exclusive economic zone and how it responded to the Philippine ship incident.
- Strengthening US-Philippines Cooperation: To encircle China, disprove the notion that the US is backing away from its commitments, and demonstrate that it is a better partner in the region, the US is working to improve relations with the Philippines and many other Asian countries. This was demonstrated by a series of visits and economic initiatives. With respect to the Philippines, in February 2023, as part of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement signed in 2014, a defense agreement was announced between the United States and the Philippines, with the stated goal of allowing American soldiers to use four military bases in the Philippines in order to counter Chinese influence. The agreement also evolved to include joint discussions on the use of nine Filipino camps. The overarching goal of this thaw is to prevent Chinese intrusion into the South China Sea region by taking advantage of the vulnerability of Philippine ships operating there under the guise of fulfilling its defense obligations. Moreover, officials in Manila argue that allowing the US military presence to grow is in the country’s best interest and improves Manila’s preparedness for natural disasters.
- Chinese Military Expansion: China has started to increase its overall presence in the South China Sea since 2014 by building four man-made islands over specific areas of the sea and enlarging its sphere of influence. Then, efforts were made to militarize those islands, which runs counter to a pledge made by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2015 that China would not continue its approach of militarizing the islands. However, the reality on the ground confirms the warrior-wolf diplomacy that China has recently adopted in its foreign policy. Additionally, China does not accept the 2016 Arbitration Ruling, which disapproves of the so-called nine-dash line that Beijing established to demarcate its sovereignty in the South China Sea, and considers it to be illegal and in contravention of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
- Employing Unofficial Forces: In light of the recent discussion about the role of paramilitary forces in the foreign policy of countries, reports indicated that in the incident of firing water at the Philippine ship, China used forces akin to the marine militia that used what appeared to be blue fishing boats, which are ships that are not similar to the Coast Guard ships flying the Chinese flag. This is the same type of vessel that previously invaded the Philippines-claimed Whitsun Reef in 2021. Beijing, however, does not acknowledge the existence of such a militia. Nevertheless, in reality, it is already assisting China in the so-called “gray zone” by engaging in non-combatant activities that assist China in gaining and maintaining control of territory without resorting to armed conflict.
- Chinese Threats and Accusations: As a response to the US-Philippine reconciliation, Beijing’s ambassador in Manila accused the Philippines of escalating regional tensions by granting the US access to military installations on the grounds that it meddled in China’s affairs with Taiwan. He intimidated the foreign Filipino workers in Taiwan by pleading with Manila to oppose Taiwanese independence and prevent the entry of US forces into areas close to the island.
Potential for Retraction
While there are factors that have contributed to the escalation of tensions between China and the Philippines, there are also some that could lead to a de-escalation of the situation, and these are:
- ASEAN Efforts: As chair of the current ASEAN summit, Indonesia is working to advance the negotiations between ASEAN and China on a code of conduct that governs how riparian countries behave in the South China Sea, despite calls to halt them. The goal is to at least reach a workable agreement soon, binding China to international law and the law of the sea.
- Philippines Uncertainty: In response to the incident, the Philippine army said it is looking into ways to strengthen its control over the Second Thomas Shoal and is considering steps to prolong the stay there, in addition to carrying out joint naval patrols with the United States by the end of 2023 and providing additional fleets of ships to support resupply missions. However, the Philippines is generally working to establish a balance in its relations with China and the United States and is cautious not to enter what is known as the Cold War, despite this apparent motivation. Some claim that the current president of the Philippines, Bongbong Marcos, worked to improve economic ties with Beijing while also bolstering the country’s defense system with US support. In fact, the US provided the Philippines with nearly $100 million in 2022 to improve its defense capabilities.
- Philippines’ Fears of a Taiwan Attack: The Philippines is the closest country to Taiwan, which is located 200 kilometers away in the extreme north of Luzon, making it a possible location to confront an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. However, it remains unclear how far the Philippines will go in allowing Taiwan to use its territory for defense purposes. There are worries that the Philippines will find it challenging to maintain its neutrality in any Taiwan-related dispute, given that it will be the country most likely to receive Taiwanese refugees, and that about 150,000 Filipinos will be in danger in the event of a Chinese attack. This could spur the Philippines to demand American guarantees and assistance in modernizing its armed forces in light of its leadership’s improved relationship with the US.
In conclusion, in the event that the United States decides to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, it is likely that Beijing’s actions will lead to a confrontation between the major powers. China’s actions have placed the Philippines in a position where they cannot calm down without facing international humiliation. Chinese naval activity has increased, as evidenced by the country’s efforts to bolster and modernize the armed forces and to develop a naval force that can adapt to the military requirements of the new century. As a result, this year saw an increase in Beijing’s military spending of 7.2 percent. Similarly, the likelihood of an escalation in the region to the point of war at the moment is still hampered by uncertainty because China is focused on its objectives of revitalizing the country while also maintaining good bilateral relations with the surrounding countries, which will closely monitor the developments of the conflict between China and the Philippines to also determine their position on regional disputes.
