Shortly after the most voter-heavy presidential election in Russian history, which gave Vladimir Putin a fifth term, terrorists launched a devastating attack on the outskirts of Moscow, in an assault deemed the worst in the previous two decades.
Daesh-Khorasan promptly claimed responsibility. Amaq News Agency, a news outlet linked to Daesh (Islamic State), released a statement ascribed to a security source, affirming that Daesh combatants specifically targeted a congregation of Christians in the suburbs of the capital Russian capital and that the fighters subsequently retreated to their secure bases. In an effort to rationalize this operation, Daesh stated that the assault “comes within the context of the raging war between Daesh and countries fighting Islam.” Amaq subsequently released a video clip showcasing the attack, captured by one of the culprits, as a means of verifying the perpetrators’ affiliation with Daesh.
In spite of Daesh’s assertion of responsibility for the terrorist attack and the prior warnings from the United States regarding the presence of terrorist schemes aimed at human populations within Russia, Moscow maintains its insistence on attributing blame to Ukraine, whose president promptly disavowed any association with said attack. Following the apprehension of the four perpetrators and seven additional individuals, the Russian President asserted that the perpetrators attempted to conceal themselves and flee towards Ukraine, where a designated window on the Ukrainian side was made available for them to cross the state border.
It is evident from the statements made by Russian officials, including Putin, that they are not persuaded by Daesh’s claims of responsibility for the attack. Moscow, which has dealt with Daesh in Syria, firmly believes that the organization is a mere instrument and has been manipulated by other countries to execute the assault. It holds the belief that Daesh, despite potentially being the perpetrator, has been infiltrated by global intelligence services through security vulnerabilities and is fundamentally and primarily utilized to advance global agendas. The arrest of the perpetrators near the Ukrainian border is perceived by Moscow as indicative of Kiev’s participation in the terrorist attack.
Irrespective of the veracity of the Russian narrative, it is imperative to raise valid inquiries pertaining to Daesh’s objectives underlying this operation and the methodology employed, along with an examination of the confessions made by one of the perpetrators involved.
Regarding the operation’s goal, Daesh claims that it comes within the ongoing conflict between the organization and countries fighting Islam. While it is true that Daesh-Khorsan carried out a suicide attack on the Russian embassy in Kabul last September, killing embassy staff, indicating that there has always been hostility between the two parties, the timing of this recent attack and the horrific conflict Gaza is going through cast doubt on Daesh’s intentions and objectives.
Furthermore, the confessions made by one of the accused perpetrators, who claimed to have participated in the attack in exchange for financial remuneration, contradict the notion that ideological motivation serves as a catalyst for terrorism. Additionally, his confessions that he was enlisted via a Telegram group, without any knowledge of the recruiter’s identity, indicates a lack of formal association with the organization the denial of the lone wolf hypothesis. Regarding the claim that the weapon was found concealed in one of the locations to which he was directed, it is typical of gang activity. What further casts doubt on the credibility of the perpetrator’s confessions is his assertion that he lacked knowledge of the other perpetrators, despite the fact that the operation was executed in a methodical manner, indicating a level of understanding, cohesion, and coordination among all the perpetrators. This suggests that they may have undergone joint training for a specific duration.
Concerning the methods employed to execute the attack, the specific weapons utilized, the random selection of victims, and the desire to maximize casualties, this is a quintessential tactic employed by Daesh. However, the perpetrators’ ability to leave the crime scene alive and evade capture is a strategy that is unfamiliar in Daesh literature and schemes. The terrorist operations conducted by Daesh consistently culminate in the perpetrators either blowing themselves of being killed during the operation.
In any case, there will never be satisfactory explanations for the underlying motives, timing, and intended outcomes of terrorist operations or the individuals or groups that benefit from them. What is certain is that the consequences of the Moscow attack will be significant. Furthermore, aside from the erosion of security and stability in Russia and the rise in Islamophobia and animosity towards Muslims, it is possible that crucial facilities in Ukraine will be subjected to targeted attacks. Additionally, Moscow will be using more sophisticated weaponry to expedite the resolution of the conflict and establish a tangible outcome. As for the Western response, it remains receptive to all potentialities.
