The Institute for Economics and Peace launched the 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI) on June 11, 2020. This report ranks 163 countries and regions by their peacefulness levels, offering an in-depth analysis based on a variety of data that highlights peace trends in three key areas: societal safety and security, ongoing local and international conflicts, and the degree of militarization. These insights are derived from 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators.
In this article, we’ll explore the key findings of the 2024 GPI. We’ll begin with a breakdown of the methodology, followed by a review of the most significant takeaways, and wrap up with a detailed analytical insight.
I. The GPI Methodology
The GPI hinges on analyzing global peace trends through three key domains, evaluated through 23 indicators, each rated on a scale from one to five, blending quantitative and qualitative data. The first domain focuses on ongoing domestic and international conflicts, using six statistical indicators to assess countries’ involvement in internal and external conflicts and their role and duration of involvement in these conflicts.
The second domain focuses on societal safety and security, as assessed by 11 indicators that include the number of internally displaced persons, crime rates, and terrorist activity. Furthermore, six indicators assess a country’s militarization, reflecting the relationship between a country’s level of military buildup and access to weapons and its level of peacekeeping, both domestically and internationally. This includes metrics such as military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, active service personnel, and contributions to UN peacekeeping missions, forming the third domain of study on global peace trends.
In its latest iteration, the GPI introduced a new indicator to gauge military capabilities, studying the quantity and quality of military assets and combat readiness in four categories: fixed-wing aircraft, rotary-wing aircraft, naval assets, and armored vehicles. It also considers the level of military technological development and the adoption of advanced weapon systems.
II. Key Findings of the 2024 GPI
The 2024 GPI revealed a staggering 56 active conflicts, the highest number since the end of World War II. The data shows a significant shift in conflict outcomes: decisive victories dropped from 49% in the 1970s to just 9% in the early 21st century, while peace agreements fell from 23% to 4%. With 92 countries involved in external conflicts, the international nature of these disputes has intensified, fueled by the rivalry between major powers and the ambitions of rising middle powers, complicating the quest for lasting peace.
Additionally, the GPI also highlighted the rising role of middle powers like Egypt, South Africa, Turkey, and Israel. Their active engagement in global affairs and interactions with major powers are contributing to a multi-polar international system. Conversely, many Global South countries prefer to stay unaligned with the major powers.
Given this context, we will explore global peace trends by region, the military capabilities of countries as a crucial peace indicator, the economic impact of conflicts, wars, and violence, and the evolving patterns of warfare in the 21st century.
1. Global Peace Trends
The 2024 GPI revealed a 0.56% deterioration in the level of global peacefulness, marking the highest deterioration since the index’s inception in 2008. A total of 97 countries experienced deterioration in peacefulness, with conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine being the primary contributors. The situation in Gaza, in particular, had a notable impact on global peace.
Iceland continues to hold its title as the world’s most peaceful country, maintaining its top spot since the first GPI edition. Following closely are Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, and Singapore. Conversely, Yemen was ranked as the least peaceful, trailed by Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine.
At the regional level, Europe retains its status as the most peaceful region, hosting 8 of the top 10 peaceful countries. This region has consistently held this position since the GPI’s inception. The Asia-Pacific region, however, saw a slight deterioration of 0.1% in its overall peacefulness ranking for 2024, largely due to a 2.4% deterioration in militarization and a 1.6% increase in the ongoing conflict indicator, though it experienced a positive development in the area of safety and security due to an improvement in the metrics for violent protests and homicides.
Despite these challenges, the Asia-Pacific remains the second most peaceful region globally, a ranking it has held since 2017. Among the countries in the region, 11 out of 19 experienced a deterioration in their GPI rankings, while only eight showed improvement. New Zealand stands out as the most peaceful country in its region, ranking fourth globally in the 2024 GPI. In stark contrast, North Korea has consistently been the least peaceful country in Asia since the GPI’s inception. It recorded the fourth-worst deterioration in the region, driven by an increase in militarization. North Korea is one of the most highly militarized countries, with the highest possible score on the nuclear and heavy weapons, military expenditure, and armed services personnel rate indicators, followed by Myanmar.
South Asia ranks as the third least peaceful region, ahead of only the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. Four out of seven countries in this region saw a decline in overall peace, mainly due to decreased contributions to UN peacekeeping, increased military expenditure, and a deterioration in the militarization domain. Bhutan stands out as the most peaceful country in South Asia, while Afghanistan is the least peaceful.
Central America and the Caribbean experienced a slight 0.17% decline in the GPI. Of the 12 countries in the region, five saw improvements, while seven deteriorated compared to the previous year. The overall decline was driven by significant drops in external and internal conflicts and political terror, exacerbated by high levels of organized crime and civil unrest.
Costa Rica, despite experiencing a significant deterioration in violent demonstrations, violent crime, and homicide rate indicators, still holds the title of the most peaceful country in its region, ranking 58th in the 2024 GPI. On the other hand, Haiti has, for the first time, been named the least peaceful country in the region and is now fifth on the list of the world’s least peaceful countries. This status is driven by a significant increase in violent crime, violent demonstrations, and the homicide rate.
The 2024 GPI revealed North America, encompassing Canada and the United States, as the region with the greatest deterioration in the average level of peacefulness, with the largest deterioration in the ongoing conflict domain, along with a nearly 5% drop in safety and stability. Nevertheless, it holds onto its spot as the third most peaceful region globally, just behind Europe and the Asia-Pacific.
South America experienced the second-largest deterioration in the 2024 GPI, with a 3.6% drop in the average level of peacefulness. The fall in peacefulness in the region was driven by deteriorations in safety and security and ongoing conflict domains, with the largest changes occurring in the homicide rate, political terror scale, and intensity of internal conflict indicators. Three countries showed slight improvements and one remained stable. The region still ranks as the fifth most peaceful globally. Argentina stands out as the sole South American country in the top 50 most peaceful globally, while Colombia remains the least peaceful in South America for the fourth straight year.
The Russia and Eurasia region experienced the largest improvement in the 2024 GPI, with a 0.6% rise in average peacefulness levels. However, despite improvements in the peacefulness level in four out of twelve countries, eight experienced deterioration, and the region’s overall peacefulness levels stay low due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which overshadows regional dynamics.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continues to be the least peaceful region worldwide for the ninth consecutive year. Ongoing conflicts, particularly in Sudan and Yemen, keep four countries among the ten least peaceful globally. Conversely, Kuwait is recognized as the most peaceful country in MENA, ranking 25th globally and among only three regional countries in the top 50. Yemen, however, has been designated the least peaceful both regionally and globally for the first time since the GPI’s inception.
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the Israeli war on Gaza have taken a heavy toll on the Middle East’s peace index. Hamas’s continued stronghold in northern Gaza casts serious doubt on Israel’s ability to stabilize the area, amid a severe humanitarian crisis. This ongoing turmoil has created widespread uncertainty and considerably diminished the region’s standing in the GPI.
The 2024 GPI underscored the dire consequences of Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen’s involvement in the Israeli war on Gaza, pushing the Middle East to the edge of a full-scale conflict. Israel’s long-standing tensions with Iran have been exacerbated by Hezbollah’s strikes, which displaced 100,000 Israelis and highlighted their stockpile of 100,000–150,000 missiles. Additionally, the Houthis’ attacks on ships in the Red Sea have sparked fears of a broader conflict involving Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
Egypt experienced a notable positive improvement in the GPI, soaring from 121st place in 2023 to 105th in 2024, marking a 16-place climb. As a significant regional player engaged in international affairs, Egypt has focused on enhancing security, peace, and stability, yielding significant results.
Figure 1: Egypt’s rank in the GPI
Source: The 2024 GPI
Sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, was ranked the second least peaceful region in the 2024 GPI, trailing only the Middle East and North Africa. This region is home to three of the world’s ten least peaceful countries, struggling with severe security and political crises, particularly the spread of terrorism. Burkina Faso has the highest terrorism impact of any country in the world, and five of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Mauritius stands out as the region’s most peaceful country for the 17th consecutive year, with no involvement in external or internal conflicts over the past five years. Conversely, South Sudan holds the position of the least peaceful country in the region. Ethiopia recorded the largest improvement in peacefulness following the Tigray ceasefire agreement, while Gabon experienced the largest deterioration in peacefulness within Sub-Saharan Africa and was the third largest globally.
2. Military Capability
Militarization recorded its largest deterioration since the inception of the GPI, dropping by an average of 1.7%. Out of the 163 countries surveyed, 108 experienced a downturn in the militarization domain, primarily driven by increased military expenditure. While 86 countries ramped up their military expenditures, 50 opted to reduce theirs.
The newly introduced military capability scoring system, which highlights technological disparities, reveals that US military capabilities are three times greater than those of China. However, China recorded the most substantial increase in military capability among major powers, whereas France and Russia saw slight contractions. Globally, military capability has risen by 10% since 2014, even as the number of military personnel has declined. This trend signifies a global shift from infantry reliance to advanced weaponry, as 112 countries reduced their military personnel between 2008 and 2024.
3. The Economic Impact of Wars and Violence
Economic losses are among the dire consequences of conflicts, wars, and violent events, necessitating substantial spending to mitigate, prevent, or address them—collectively known as the “global economic impact.” This impact manifests as damage to property and assets, physical harm, or psychological trauma, which can alter economic behavior by reducing the propensity to invest and spend on productive activities and instead redirecting funds to manage and contain conflicts and violence.
The global economic impact of violence comprises three fundamental components that illustrate how violence disrupts economic activity: direct costs, indirect costs, and the multiplier effect. Direct costs involve immediate impacts on victims, perpetrators, and public systems such as the judiciary and public health. Indirect costs refer to long-term effects, including lost productivity due to physical and psychological damage and the impact of violence on public perceptions of safety and security. The multiplier effect highlights the economic gains from redirecting spending towards more productive alternatives.
According to the GPI, the global economic impact of violence surged to $19.1 trillion in 2023, equivalent to $2,380 per person and 13.5% of global GDP. This represents a $158 billion increase, driven by a 20% rise in GDP losses due to conflict. This trend poses a significant threat to the supply chains of both governments and businesses. Total spending on peacebuilding and peacekeeping reached $49.6 billion, representing less than 0.6% of total military expenditure. The largest increases in the economic impact of violence and conflicts were observed in Palestine and Israel, with total impacts rising by 63% and 40%, respectively.
Furthermore, military and internal security expenditure accounts for more than 74% of the total economic impact of violence, with military expenditures alone representing 44% of the total impact, equivalent to $8.4 trillion. Thus, wars and conflicts profoundly affect the global economy and can trigger a global recession. For instance, the Syrian economy shrank by over 85% following the onset of the civil war in 2011, and the Ukrainian economy contracted by 29% in the year following the conflict’s outbreak in 2022.
4. Evolving Warfare: Dynamics of 21st-Century Conflicts
Over the past 16 years, the world has witnessed a decline in peace, with 17 out of 23 global peace indicators showing deterioration. Notable indicators include external and internal conflicts, the number of refugees and displaced persons, and violent demonstrations. As a result, 110 million people have been registered as refugees or internally displaced due to violent conflict, and 16 countries now host over half a million refugees each.
As disputes and conflicts have escalated globally, leading to increased asylum-seeking, displacement, and fatalities over the past two decades, the 2024 GPI examined the evolution of wars and conflicts in the 21st century. The Ukrainian war and the Israeli war on Gaza illustrate the tremendous human cost and the complexities of modern warfare. The GPI identifies two primary trends in 21st-century warfare: advancements in military technology and escalating geopolitical competition. The involvement of non-state actors and the use of new weaponry, particularly drones, have further complicated conflicts and hindered peace efforts.
The GPI reports that from 2018 to 2023, the number of countries using drones surged from 16 to 40, a 150% increase, while non-state actors committing drone attacks skyrocketed from six to 91, an over 1,400% increase. Geopolitical shifts have also complicated conflict resolution, with the global system transitioning from unipolar to multipolar. This transition has intensified competition and prolonged conflicts, particularly as the United States and the European Union grapple with managing global tensions. At the same time, rising powers such as Russia, China, and regional middle powers are vying to secure their interests and influence in conflict-affected regions worldwide.
III. Analytical Insights into the GPI
The 2024 GPI results highlighted global peace trends through various quantitative and qualitative indicators, revealing several crucial points, including the following:
- The global system is shifting from a unipolar system, led solely by the United States, to a multipolar one in which emerging international powers like Russia and China, alongside regional powers such as Iran, Israel, and Egypt, are striving to establish themselves as key players in managing numerous crises and vital issues.
- Conflict and war hotspots, even if currently limited, are likely to expand and intensify as these areas become battlegrounds for competition between major and emerging powers from the eastern wing (Russia and China) and the western wing (the United States and the European Union). This foretells an increase in the number of conflicts and potential wars, both internally and externally, in the future.
- The increase in conflicts and wars is accompanied by economic stagnation and humanitarian crises, including displacement, asylum, and a decline in food security. This situation exacerbates the economic and technological gap between the Global North and the Global South, fueling renewed cycles of violence, crime, and terrorism that will cast a long shadow over countries in the Global North, further widening the peace gap between the North and the South.
- A key factor shaping the patterns of wars and conflicts is the advancement of military technology and armament, which reduces reliance on large numbers of military personnel. The involvement of non-state actors in conflict zones and their possession of advanced weaponry contributes to the creation of asymmetric and perpetual warfare.
- Drones have emerged as the weapon of the current era. Their danger lies in how easily both states and non-state armed actors can acquire and use them to manage and influence wars and conflicts in their favor. This threatens the sovereignty and stability of countries and reshapes the nature of modern warfare.
- There is an urgent need to intensify international efforts to resolve many conflicts before they escalate into large-scale crises and wars that will affect all countries. The Global South is especially vulnerable, grappling with multifaceted economic, political, security, and humanitarian challenges that jeopardize security, stability, growth, and development, creating an ideal environment for conflicts and wars to erupt.
In short, the world is currently on a volatile edge marked by multiple conflicts and intensifying competition among major powers—Russia and China versus the United States and Europe—across various regions. This competition involves a drive to boost military capabilities, introduce advanced weapon systems, and test them in conflict zones, all of which contribute to the emergence of new forms of warfare that adversely affect global peace, security, and stability. Additionally, the complex web of international interactions, involving numerous regional and international powers in conflict areas, accelerates the shift towards a multipolar global system. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East-North Africa regions are set to be the key battlegrounds in this unfolding competition.
