The terrorist attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall on March 22, which was orchestrated by Daesh-Khorsan and resulted in the deaths of over 140 people, has heightened French apprehensions regarding the potential occurrence of comparable acts of terrorism, particularly due to its resemblance to the Bataclan theatre attack in November 2015, which claimed approximately 90 lives.
The Olympic Games are generally a significant objective for terrorist organizations due to the global impact that any terrorist attack directed towards the Games or the host city would have. Paris is gearing up to play host to the Summer Olympics for the first time since 1924. The Paris Olympics are scheduled to take place from July 26 to August 11. The French desire for the opening ceremony to be a remarkable and unparalleled event, taking place on the Seine River. As announced by the Minister of the Interior to a senate commission on managing the Olympic Games’ security on March 5, the event will include a marine parade with 206 Olympic teams taking part on about 90 boats along a 6 km (3.7 mi) route.
The Moscow attack occurred at the same time as the French authorities implemented a series of security measures to improve their abilities and reactions to current and possible threats. The Crocus attack led the French government to elevate the security threat level to its highest point for the first time this year, following a reduction to the second level in January 2024 after it was elevated in October 2023 in response to the stabbing of a teacher in the Arras region.
Swift Response
The attack on Moscow did not serve as the main catalyst for French security concerns, but the timing and context of it presented additional security challenges for the French authorities. As a result, the French authorities tried to contain the current situation by implementing the following complementary measures:
Precautionary Measures: Following the meeting of the Defence and National Security Council, presided over by President Macron at the Elysee Palace on March 24, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced the raising of the Vigipirate national security alert system to the third level and activating it in the event of an internal or external attack or when the threat is considered imminent. Under this system, the visibility of security forces will be heightened nationwide, particularly in the vicinity of key infrastructure, schools, and state institutions that could be targeted.
Furthermore, France has assigned approximately 4,000 extra soldiers on standby, alongside the deployment of around 3,000 soldiers for counter-terrorism Operation Sentinelle, initiated in January 2015 with the aim of safeguarding the French population. This decision was made in light of the authorities’ successful prevention of two suspected extremist plots in 2024, based on Attal’s remarks to the media on March 25, wherein he underlined that “the terrorist threat is real and strong.”
Elucidating Circumstances: Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin aimed to evaluate and control the resurfaced apprehensions caused by the attack. To that end, he convened meetings with the intelligence agencies to assess the scope of the present circumstances and to verify the capability and efficacy of the security and intelligence services in countering the ongoing conspiracies targeting France. He assured that the French police and intelligence services would be ready for the extraordinary security operation”, adding that although the Games are an obvious future target for attacks, huge efforts and resources have been allocated to the wide-scale security and intelligence operations.
“France, because we defend universal values and are for secularism, is particularly threatened, notably during extraordinary events such as the Olympics,” Darmanin stated to the press, as the Gurdian reported.
External Reinforcements: France is slated to solicit external reinforcements from a number of countries in support of the security authorities’ endeavors to secure the Olympics. Poland, for instance, declared on March 28 that it would dispatch a task force comprising soldiers and police dog trainers, whose primary responsibility would be to detect explosives and combat terrorism. Germany, likewise, is expected to contribute police officers.
This step is crucial in terms of timing, although this is a standard approach taken by countries that host major sporting events. For example, the European allies, for instance, dispatched approximately 160 police officers to France in September 2023 to ensure security for the Rugby World Cup, according to a French Ministry of the Interior official.
In addition, Paris sent approximately 200 gendarmerie personnel to partake in the FIFA World Cup, hosted by Qatar in 2022. According to a source within the French Ministry of the Interior and the French government, earlier this year, France made a formal request to around 45 countries at the start of the year for assistance in police operations, as well as with forgery, mine clearance, anti-drone, and special dog teams.
Contingency Plans: President Macron revealed during his interview with French BFM-TV and RMC radio on April 15, approximately 100 days prior to the commencement of the Olympics, that law enforcement agencies would be mobilized to ensure the security of the event. He also mentioned the potential utilization of contingency plans, which would be determined based on a situational assessment. For example, the duration of the celebration could be shortened, or the ceremony could be conducted at the Stade de France or in the vicinity of the Eiffel Tower, depending on the decision of the organizers. Notwithstanding this, he stated that the arrangements for the opening ceremony remain unchanged, underscoring that it will be a world first. “We can do it and we will do it.”, Macron declared.
This fits into the overall plan of measures to be taken. Approximately 45,000 members of the French police and gendarmerie will be deployed, with the potential to deploy around 18,000 soldiers. Additionally, there will be an estimated 18,000 to 22,000 private security guards present. Furthermore, about 715 individuals were excluded from participating in the event due to ongoing security checks conducted on volunteers, employees, or service providers involved in the event. As per the Ministry of Interior, the imposition of security check exclusions does not necessarily indicate that the individuals in question intend to engage in action; rather, it signifies the ministry’s reluctance to assume any risk. Additionally, the number of spectators was decreased from 600,000 to roughly 326,000.
Driving Concerns
The French government is worried that terrorist attacks, such as those carried out by so-called “lone wolves,” drones, or cybercriminals, could target the country during forthcoming athletic event. These worries are motivated by several factors, including:
Recurrent Targeting: There are concerns that France may be subjected to assaults like the November 2015 Paris attacks, the 2016 Nice truck attack, and the stabbing incident of a teacher in the city of Arras in October 2023. Beyond that, numerous terrorist operations were foiled; the Prime Minister confirmed that forty-five terrorist schemes had been thwarted in France since 2017, with two incidents occurring in 2024.
Relatedly, France is concerned about the potential vulnerability to cyberattacks during the events. On March 26, Vincent Strubel, Director General of the French Cybersecurity Agency, stated that they are preparing for all eventualities, including attacks from countries that want to disrupt the games for whatever reason, and may attempt to disrupt the opening ceremony or cause problems on public transportation.
Notably, several French educational institutions were previously targeted by cyberattacks on March 22. The Ministry of Education reported that approximately 130 secondary schools and colleges received messages threatening a bomb attack, along with a video of beheadings.
Infiltration by Russia: Another source of concern is the potential for Russia to target the Olympics, as indicated by President Macron on April 4 in response to a reporter’s question about whether he thought that Russia would try to target the Olympics, replying: “I have no doubt whatsoever, including in terms of information.” In 2018, the Olympics held in South Korea experienced a cyberattack that caused the interruption of broadcast systems and the shutdown of the Olympics website. In the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics, information about the athletes’ health was leaked. The Washington Post reported that Moscow was suspected of being responsible for both incidents.
It is important to note that the International Olympic Committee decided on March 19 to permit athletes from Belarus and Russia—who oppose the war—to compete in the event as “Individual Neutral Athletes (INA), which entails that they will not participate in the parade of delegations (teams) during the Opening Ceremony. Medals won by the AINs will not be displayed on the NOC medal, according to the Olympic Committee.
Intended Threat: The recent appeals made by Daesh to its supporters to attack prominent and highly attended sporting events—following its recent assaults in Russia and, previously, Iran—are possibly a precursor to a threat that extends to the Olympic Games. Daesh incited its supporters to target the stadiums hosting the quarter-final matches of the Champions League, the prominent European club football tournament, via its media division, the al-Azayem Foundation. They specifically instructed them to replicate the assault that took place at the Stade de France in November 2015. As per the Site Intelligence group, the post additionally featured an image of the Parc des Princes Stadium, which is the home of the Paris Saint-Germain club.
In another post—accessed by the Site Intelligence group—it called fighters to use drones to attack stadiums if they were unable to physically reach the site. According to Reuters, the post featured a picture of a quadcopter aircraft soaring over Real Madrid’s Santiago Bernabeu stadium. In response, the Minister of the Interior stated that security measures surrounding the Champions League match between Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona in Paris will be significantly enhanced.
Potential Apprehension: Although France’s response to the Gaza War came within the parameters of Paris’s historical stance in favor of Israel’s right to self-defense and in compliance with international law while emphasizing the significance of the two-state solution and the need to resume the Palestinian political process and although France’s primary motivation for getting involved in the regional crises is to achieve stability and security and contain the current situation, there is a chance that the ongoing unrest will raise security risks in relation to guaranteeing the safety and security of the sports delegations taking part in the event, like the Israeli delegation, which will participate under its national flag despite the conflict, or delegations from other countries that support Israel, which may become targets for some groups.
This follows the continuing escalation in the Gaza Strip and is reminiscent of the events that transpired during the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich. Back then, the Palestinian Black September Organization kidnapped several Israeli athletes in return for the release of over 200 Palestinian detainees in Israel, as well as two Germans—Andreas Baader and Ulrike Meinhof—from the Red Army Faction. This was the first such incident to occur at the Olympic Games since 1936. The assault led to the fatalities of approximately eleven Israeli individuals and one German law enforcement officer.
This is not the only instance; in 1996, during the Olympic Games held in Atlanta, a pipe bomb exploded, inflicting over a hundred injuries and leaving two people dead.
Growing Hatred: Possible apprehensions among security authorities may arise from the challenges confronting French society as a result of the government’s strategy to maintain the secular values of the Republic while simultaneously integrating foreigners and President Macron’s endeavor to eradicate Islamist Separatism—a movement that undermines the Republic’s values through the formation of alternative, more isolated societies—through the implementation of a holistic strategy, as he elaborated in his address in the outskirts of Paris on October 2, 2020.
This trend coincided with the escalating challenges confronting France, wherein the failure of state policies to assist and develop impoverished communities, address unemployment, crime, and drug trade concerns, and provide the necessary social, cultural, educational, and health services—along with the lingering effects of the colonial legacy—could serve as catalysts for animosity. As per the French Interior Ministry, there was a 32% rise in racially motivated crimes from 2022 to 2023, and these crimes doubled in the final quarter of 2023 following the war, as reported by Politico.
This implies that there is a heightened likelihood of similar criminal activities taking place during the events, particularly due to the presence of the largest Jewish and Muslim communities in Europe, not to mention the repercussions of the conflict in Gaza, which have exposed more Muslims and Jews worldwide to the risk of terrorism. Nicolas Lerner, the head of the French General Directorate for Internal Security, stated in an interview with Le Monde that the level of the terrorist threat had increased significantly since July 2023, adding that lone wolves pose the greatest danger.
Utilization of Politics: One plausible explanation for French concerns could be the country’s strong desire to safeguard events and maintain security. President Macron expressed his desire to use the Olympic Truce as an opportunity to negotiate a ceasefire concerning the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and Gaza, as reported by several French media outlets, saying, “It is an opportunity on which I will try to involve many of our partners. The Chinese president is coming to Paris in a few weeks, I will ask him to help me.”
The Paris Olympics will observe an Olympic truce, commencing on July 19 and concluding on September 15. Notably, the Olympic Truce is a revival of a Greek tradition that dates back to the 1990s that starts from the seventh day before the opening to the seventh day following the closing of each Olympic Games. Every two years, the host country creates a resolution called “building a peaceful and better world through sport and the Olympic ideal,” which urges member states to observe the Olympic Truce and is voted on by the UN General Assembly.
The Olympic Truce for 2024 has been scheduled to take place from July 19 to September 15. This decision was made after the Truce Resolution, proposed by Tony Estangues, the Paris Olympics chief organizer, was voted on in November 2023. The resolution received a majority of approximately 118 votes in favor, with Russia and Syria choosing to abstain from voting, and no votes were cast against it.
The Russian stance was adopted in response to the Olympic Committee’s ban on the participation of Russian athletes and the nationality-based separation, which the Moscow delegate deemed to be a human rights violation. Notably, in 2022, Russia breached the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics’ truce four days after its conclusion, against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine.
Concluding Remarks
The recurring terrorist threats targeting France specifically and Europe as a whole, whether they materialized or were foiled, have several significant implications, including:
- European societies continue to grapple with social challenges arising from the difficulty of effectively integrating foreigners with diverse cultural backgrounds. This has evolved into one of the tactics used by certain organizations or political groups with extreme inclinations against the governments of Europe, elevating the threat level in certain countries in spite of precautions taken to lessen the severity of the risks.
- These threats demonstrated that France is no longer an independent target of terrorist organizations due to its involvement in the global coalition spearheaded by the United States in the fight against Daesh. Rather, terrorist organizations currently regard the entire continent of Europe as potential targets, notwithstanding the relative waning of terrorism’s influence. In 2023, there were 24 incidents that led to seven deaths, whereas in 2016, a year marked by the highest level of terrorist activity, there were 362 incidents that resulted in 736 deaths. The situation improved the most in France, which has had the fewest terrorist attacks and fatalities since 2013. While France’s security situation remains fragile, it has recorded less than ten terrorist-related deaths in the last five years, as per the 2024 Global Terrorism Index, released by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
- Speaking of Daesh’s repeated threats to attack European stadiums during popular sporting events—which draw the largest audience—it is worth noting that Daesh has already carried out an attack on Swedish football fans in Belgium in 2023, resulting in the deaths of two individuals. This incident marked the first such attack in several years. Hence, Daesh has the potential to replicate this situation by exploiting the ongoing sporting events organized in certain European capitals. This remains contingent on a number of factors, including the manner in which the assaults are executed, their timing, and their objective, particularly in the wake of the attacks on Tehran and Moscow.
- The strategic focus of Daesh—which is considered the most lethal terrorist organization in 2023 according to the Global Terrorism Index—and its affiliated groups to target Europe is perhaps driven by their ideology opposing Western powers as well as their ambition to extend their influence and regain their universal dominance. Daesh aims not only to recruit new followers or expand the number of groups pledging allegiance to it, but also to increase the scale of its operations. This is seen as a crucial strategy to attract more loyal supporters, especially in response to the growing influence of Iran’s agents in the region. Hence, the potential for Daesh to target European capitals remains viable.
