State elections held last September in the eastern German states of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, out of 16 states nationwide, revealed the growing challenges for Olaf Scholz’s government, as was evidenced by the ruling coalition’s decline following setbacks in the European elections, in contrast to the electoral gains of the far right and the sudden rise of the far left, both aligning on pressing issues like immigration and the Ukraine war.
In many ways, these elections reflected the relative decline of the coalition government’s policies, both domestically and internationally, amid worsening economic conditions, with financial issues emerging as a major source of friction among the governing parties. Against this, this paper aims to elucidate the implications of such a trend in voting, the factors that drove East German voters toward extremist parties, and the potential impact of this on the future of the current government.
The Electoral Scene
The ruling coalition parties faced a setback in the regional elections held in Thuringia, Germany’s smallest state, on September 1. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) secured only 6.1% of the vote, placing fifth and the Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP) couldn’t surpass the 5% electoral threshold required for representation in the state parliament while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party garnered 32.8% of the vote, slightly edging out the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which received 32.6%. Additionally, the left-wing populist party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) secured its first victory with a notable 15.8% of the vote just eight months after its founding, as reported by Deutsche Welle.
In Saxony, the CDU successfully retained its dominance in the state—long a stronghold since German reunification—securing approximately 31.9% of the vote, narrowly edging out the AfD party, which garnered 30.6% of the vote. The BSW party took third place with 11.8%, while the SPD came in fourth with around 7.3%, and the Greens followed with roughly 5.1%.
The SPD emerged victorious in Brandenburg, one of its long-standing strongholds since 1990, with 30.9% of the vote, narrowly edging out the AfD, which secured 29.2%, a 6% increase from 2019. This defied pre-election polls predicting a far-right lead. The BSW also captured 13.5% to take third place, while the CDU ranked fourth with 12.1%, according to initial projections. The Greens and FDP failed to surpass the 5% threshold, with the Greens receiving 4.1% and the FDP just 0.8%. Notably, voter turnout in the state reached its highest level since reunification, at 73%.
What Does This Voting Trend Reveal?
The outcomes of the elections in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1, 2024, carried several implications that might have signaled potential voting patterns in the Brandenburg state elections later on September 22. However, the election results in Brandenburg revealed significant shifts in the German political landscape, with the following prominent aspects coming to light:
• Government’s Waning Popularity: The election results revealed a growing sense of discontent with the ruling coalition, as evidenced by a noticeable decline in their popularity. This decline can be attributed to the voters’ dissatisfaction with government policies, which have intensified key challenges facing Germans, most notably the farmers’ protests earlier this year. As such, voting for populist or extremist factions has become both an alternative and a form of protest against the coalition. For instance, polling data from the Infratest dimap Institute, which publishes the ARD-Deutschland Trend poll, indicated that “every second AfD voter in Thuringia and Saxony supported the party because they resonated with its message, believing it would better represent the interests of East Germans, alongside adopting stronger asylum and refugee policies,” as cited by Politico.
Hence, the election results served as a crucial reminder to the government about the need to contain the current situation and curb the rise of far-right factions, which prompted the German Chancellor to urge democratic parties to avoid forming stable coalitions with “right-wing extremists,” characterizing the election results in Thuringia and Saxony as “bitter” and “alarming.”
In this context, the government continued to implement stricter asylum and migration measures to deter the rise of extremist forces ahead of the Brandenburg state elections since issues such as immigration, economic development, and social security were crucial to voters in the state and failing to address them could have exacerbated challenges for the SPD and embarrassed the Chancellor in his constituency. Thus, it was vital for the Socialists to achieve a win in the state, even amidst the persistent challenges they encountered.
In the end, the Socialists managed to clinch a narrow win in the state, thanks in part to Dietmar Woidke, the state Prime Minister, who campaigned separately from the Chancellor and vowed to resign if the AfD outperformed his party after over a decade in power since 2013. Furthermore, the Socialists’ victory was bolstered by voters who aimed to “block the far right from gaining power, rather than aligning with the party,” alongside strong support from the elderly.
• The Rise of the Far Right: Alice Weidel, co-chair of the AfD, interpreted the election results in Thuringia and Saxony as a clear mandate from voters for the party to participate in government, urging other parties to disregard the Chancellor’s remarks. The election outcomes also demonstrated the AfD’s success in broadening its voter base, particularly among the youth. In Thuringia, according to the Election Research Group (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, FGW), 36% of individuals aged 18 to 29 cast their votes for the AfD party, marking an increase of approximately 11% compared to the 2019 elections in that state.
In Saxony, around 30% of voters from the same age group supported the AfD party, marking a 9% increase compared to the previous elections, as reported by the German Der Spiegel magazine. This surge came despite the fact that the AfD’s youth wing had been classified by the domestic intelligence service as a “confirmed case of extremism,” and the party itself has been monitored for “suspected right-wing extremism”
In Brandenburg, Alice Weidel stated that “the party is the strongest force in the eastern states.” Tino Chrupalla, the party’s co-chair, also expressed satisfaction with the results, emphasizing that the AfD “has won gold once and silver twice” across the eastern states. Despite these successes, it remains unlikely that any party will form a government with the far right at the state level.
Notably, the party’s anti-migrant stance may actually have served as an appealing factor, reinforcing its credibility on this issue amidst growing fears of migrants in the three states. This can be seen in the party’s steady rise in previous elections. For instance, in Thuringia, the party secured around 10.6% of the vote in 2014, increased to 23.4% in 2019, and eventually won first place with about 32% of the vote in 2024. This victory made it the first far-right party to win a state election since World War II, led by Bjorn Hocke, who was convicted for using outlawed Nazi slogans.
The AfD won in Brandenburg even though the state’s intelligence service had classified its local branch as a “suspected right-wing extremist organization.” Hans-Christoph Berndt, the party’s top candidate, maintains ties with some extremist organizations, as he was co-founder and leader of a neo-Nazi-influenced group before joining the party, as reported by Deutsche Welle.
• The Rise of the Populist Left: The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party, a splinter from the leftist Die Linke party, the successor to East Germany’s former ruling Communist Party, secured third place in the three states following its founding in January 2024 by Sahra Wagenknecht, who defined the alliance’s orientation as “conservative left,” intentionally distancing it from the policies of Western far-left parties, especially regarding the “cultural empowerment” of ethnic and sexual minorities and immigration, choosing instead to prioritize redistribution and welfare state support. Hence, its electoral success can be attributed to various factors, including a decline in public confidence in the government, ongoing divisions among traditional parties, and the growing rise of extremist factions, which have created an opportunity for the BSW to resonate with voters who are dissatisfied with the existing political order, particularly in light of the economic difficulties that have arisen since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war and have worsened as the conflict drags on without a resolution.
Sahra Wagenknecht, the party leader, firmly believes that “left-wing parties are no longer serving the working class, are becoming increasingly submissive to environmental agendas, and are showing tolerance toward immigration.” The election results are likely to empower the BSW to seek alliances or assume the role of a kingmaker, particularly since Wagenknecht has emphasized her refusal to collaborate with the far right, stating that any coalition should acknowledge her party’s demands for more diplomacy as a prelude to halting the war. She also voiced opposition to the deployment of US missiles in Germany, justifying this by stating that “half of the population in Germany fears being drawn into a major conflict,” and “two-thirds of the Eastern population oppose American missiles,” as reported by Reuters.
Wagenknecht’s approach is not new, as she had previously criticized the sanctions imposed on Russia and the military support extended to Ukraine, aligning closely with the far right’s position. She argued that immigration policies adversely affect the working class, a claim she articulated in a book published in 2021 that presented her perspective on immigration. Furthermore, she opposes the immigration policies of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as reported by Euro News.
Influential Factors
The elections served as a revealing indicator of the evolving domestic situation in Germany, highlighting a number of factors that may have contributed to reshaping the current political landscape. These factors are likely to influence the upcoming federal elections next year, the most significant of which are:
• Internal Disputes: Germany’s recent economic and financial challenges have deepened the rifts among the three ruling coalition parties, making consensus increasingly difficult to achieve due to their sharply contrasting positions, especially since previous German governments typically comprised only two parties. This was evident in the debates surrounding the 2025 budget, as the coalition struggled to close the expanding financial gap, which had escalated to almost €17 billion before the budget agreement was finalized in July 2024.
For instance, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, head of the FDP, suggested freezing social spending for three years to boost defense funding and curb inflation. This proposal was met with opposition from both the Socialists and Greens. In contrast, €1.2 billion was allocated to increase the basic defense budget, and aid to Ukraine was cut by half, reducing it to approximately €4 billion.
In an effort to manage the current situation, childcare benefits were increased by roughly €108 annually for two years. Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck defended this decision by stating, “The idea that we are dismantling the welfare state because we need more money for the military is fatal,” highlighting the importance of social spending to maintain internal solidarity, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Notably, the earlier ruling that deemed unconstitutional the government’s attempts to reallocate approximately €60 billion initially designated for combating the Covid-19 pandemic toward addressing climate change and modernizing the country in November 2023 reignited internal disputes as the government sought to reduce spending in various sectors, including farmer subsidies. In response, the Liberal Democrats and Greens advocated for a shift toward emergency borrowing, urging Parliament to suspend what is commonly referred to as the “debt brake.” Consequently, the government restructured the 2024 budget, which was subsequently approved by Parliament in February 2024 instead of December 2023.
• Continuation of the Ukraine War: The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war took center stage in the agendas of far-right and far-left parties, which have leveraged the issue during regional elections, by advocating for diplomatic solutions to resolve the conflict rather than pursuing military options, simultaneously opposing the ongoing military support for Ukraine. Notably, Germany stands as the second-largest military aid contributor to Kyiv, after the United States. While the internal stances of opposition parties may not drastically shift Germany’s foreign policy, the successive electoral entitlements, which coincided with the prolonged unresolved Ukraine war, have given these positions greater weight, which has indirectly impacted the German government’s approach toward Ukraine, aiming to curtail domestic exploitation of the issue by far-right and far-left forces, while ensuring a balance between ongoing support for Ukraine and maintaining internal stability in Germany.
This may explain why the government opted to slash aid to Ukraine by half in the upcoming budget, following its arrangement of loans to Kyiv from profits on frozen Russian assets, in an attempt to address the mounting economic strains tied to the war, which has driven electricity prices up by 60% to 75% compared to pre-Covid-19 levels, according to the Wall Street Journal.
In this context, the surge in energy prices has impacted various economic sectors, including the chemical industry. For the first time in 2022, Germany imported more chemicals from China than it exported. High production costs, coupled with growing competition from China, have also taken a toll on automakers like Volkswagen, which, on September 10, 2024, announced job cuts after ending its employment protection agreement with labor unions.
Despite the government’s efforts to secure alternative energy sources to Russian supplies, companies continue to grapple with rising production costs while complying with environmental regulations. For instance, the steel company ThyssenKrupp is striving to remain competitive during its shift away from carbon emissions, “despite the promise of about €2 billion in government subsidies to ease its transformation away from CO2-emitting production,” as reported by Politico.
Notably, these economic challenges have further extended to the housing sector, with the housing shortage crisis worsening due to rising interest rates, increasing construction costs, and soaring energy prices, which has negatively impacted the government’s ability to meet its annual goals, while also affecting real estate developers and ordinary citizens. The far right has capitalized on this situation, using it as a key talking point during election campaigns.
• Protracted Consequences: The effects of former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s immigration policies remain influential in voting trends, particularly in the eastern regions of the country. Opinion polls conducted prior to the elections indicate that immigration, crime, and social protection are the top three concerns among respondents in these states. The far right has capitalized on this, as demonstrated by the AfD’s election propaganda, which included images of passenger planes in flight alongside the slogan “Summer, sunshine, remigration.” They also handed out balloons shaped like “deportation planes” at their rallies, according to the Financial Times.
During a rally in Thuringia, a female activist called for remigration, stating, “We don’t want a multicultural society—we want to save Germany.” Additionally, party leader Alice Weidel criticized the coalition parties and the CDU for their migration policy, particularly in light of the pre-election murder incident in Solingen that resulted in three fatalities at the hands of a Syrian national who was slated for deportation. Despite the government’s efforts to address the situation by implementing a series of deterrent and preventive measures, the election results in Thuringia and Saxony indicated that these initiatives did not adequately address voter concerns.
Implications for the Political Landscape
Given the coalition government’s recognition of the threat posed by the rise of far-right forces to German democracy, it will likely pursue strategies that mitigate this rise and contain its effects on both domestic and foreign decision-making, while restoring the trust of German voters, particularly in the eastern states to bridge the gap between East and West while curbing the appeal of opposition parties, especially extremist factions, to the youth by implementing measures that promote equal living opportunities across regions and increase the representation of East Germans in leadership positions, as highlighted by the German Chancellor during the celebration of the thirty-fourth anniversary of reunification.
Additionally, the government plans to expedite the deportation of refugees who have committed crimes and to curb the influx of immigrants by unilaterally closing borders with four European countries—Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark—for six months starting September 16, 2024. This raises the number of countries with which Germany has decided to close land borders to nine European countries, eight of which are members of the Schengen system.
Despite these developments, the AfD is expected to emerge as the so-called “disruptive factor” in Germany’s stability equation, given the reluctance of other parties to collaborate with it, coupled with its growing ability to secure more seats in state parliaments. For instance, the party is projected to win around 32 out of 88 seats in Thuringia, which could enable it to obstruct decisions that require a two-thirds majority, such as appointing senior security officials and judges. In Saxony, the AfD is expected to secure approximately 40 out of 120 seats, making it an influential force there as well. Meanwhile, in Brandenburg, the Socialists are likely to attempt to limit the AfD’s influence on state decisions, either by forming alliances with the BSW party or by cooperating with the CDU—although this will require finding common ground to address their differing stances.
On the other hand, the left-wing BSW is expected to adopt similar positions to the AfD on certain issues, such as immigration and the war in Ukraine, but as a conservative party, not an extremist one, positioning itself as capable of participating in regional government formations. The party leader has made it clear that while she refuses to cooperate with the AfD, she aims to work with the CDU to form a government.
As such, the BSW could evolve into what is referred to as a “kingmaker”, potentially becoming a key partner for the conservatives in upcoming local or national elections, especially if the CDU opts not to collaborate with the center-left or left, whose popularity has waned—particularly the Greens and the Free Democrats, who suffered notable defeats in the three states, prompting the Greens’ leadership to announce, on September 25, that the executive committee will resign by November in an effort to seek new leadership and restore voter trust.
In short, while the results of the state parliament elections in the three eastern states are not are not a definitive measure of diminishing East-West interconnectedness, they do highlight the growing challenges confronting the ruling coalition parties. Moreover, these results indicate that the differences between the far right and the populist left have narrowed significantly within the context of electoral dynamics. Moreover, it is evident that internal shifts and the repercussions of global developments will compel German political forces to rethink their internal and external policies to reach agreements that facilitate the formation of stable regional governments, in addition to creating regional coalitions that can bolster Germany’s standing and influence, particularly given the rise of the far right and the populist left.
