Russian influence in the Middle East and Africa faces significant challenges, particularly with the potential loss of its strategic military bases in Syria following the fall of its key regional ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This has prompted Moscow to adopt a multi-faceted approach that combines negotiations with the new Syrian administration and the search for alternative strategies to maintain its military presence in the region—an issue this article aims to explore.
Russia’s Military Bases in Syria
Russia maintained close ties with the former Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad, allowing it to establish a stronghold for its influence in the Middle East and Africa. This was achieved through the establishment of key air and naval military bases on Syrian soil, facilitating Russian military operations across Syria and beyond. Below are the most prominent of these bases:
- Hmeimim Air Base: Located in the village of Hmeimim in Latakia governorate, this airbase was established in 2015 following an agreement between Moscow and the Assad regime. The agreement granted Russian forces unrestricted and indefinite access to the base without any financial obligations. Russia subsequently expanded the base, equipping it with the necessary infrastructure, including housing facilities for approximately 1,000 Russian military personnel, air traffic control towers, refueling stations, and a field hospital.
- Tartus Naval Base: Russia’s sole naval base in the Mediterranean, Tartus was originally established in 1971 under an agreement between Syria and the Soviet Union. It served as a logistical and technical support center for the Soviet Black Sea Fleet operating in the Mediterranean, as well as a strategic outpost for monitoring NATO naval activities.
On January 18, 2017, Moscow and Damascus signed an agreement extending Russia’s presence at the Tartus base for 49 years, with an option for renewal. The agreement allowed for significant upgrades to the base, enabling it to accommodate aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. It also granted the Russian military full legal immunity from Syrian jurisdiction, barring Syrian authorities from entering the base. Additionally, the agreement permitted Russia—subject to the approval of relevant parties—to deploy mobile military units beyond the base’s perimeter for its protection and defense.
Beyond these two primary bases, Russia has established additional military sites across Syria, including airfields, weapons depots, and control posts, ensuring the continuity of its military footprint. These include Qamishli Airfield, Shayrat Airbase, and Hama Military Airbase, among others.
The Significance of Russia’s Military Bases in Syria
Russia’s military bases in Syria are a cornerstone of Moscow’s military and security strategy. Their role extends beyond securing Russian military influence in the Mediterranean and the Middle East to supporting its operations in Africa. These bases serve as hubs for military operations, political leverage, and sustained influence over the resource-rich African continent.
Militarily, these bases provide Russia with a strategic foothold in the Middle East, allowing it to project power and enhance its influence. They also enable Russia to monitor military movements in the Eastern Mediterranean, reinforcing its geopolitical position in the region.
Politically, Russia’s military presence in Syria bolsters its status as a major international player in global and regional affairs. It helps maintain a balance of power with the United States, Europe, and NATO in the Middle East, where competition for influence among global and regional powers remains intense.
Economically, the impact of these military bases extends to protecting Russian investments in Syria, particularly in the energy and mining sectors. Russian companies hold contracts for extracting Syria’s natural resources, including oil, gas, and phosphate. Additionally, Russia’s presence in Tartus provides a crucial access point to the Mediterranean, strengthening its trade and economic influence.
Beyond Syria, these bases serve as a logistical hub for Russian operations in Africa. They are essential for securing military and logistical supplies to Russian forces operating across West Africa and the Sahel, further expanding Moscow’s reach on the continent.
The Implications of Military Base Loss in Syria
The potential loss of Russia’s military bases in Syria would deal a severe strategic blow, with far-reaching implications for its regional and global influence, security interests, and economic stakes. Below are the key potential consequences:
Diminished Geopolitical Influence in the Middle East: Losing these bases could weaken Russia’s strategic foothold in the region, reducing its ability to compete for influence with regional and global powers. This would, in turn, diminish its capacity to shape regional events and maintain a strong presence in Middle Eastern affairs.
Restricted Support for Operations in Africa: Russia relies on the Hmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base to provide military and logistical support to its operations in Africa. Without these bases, Moscow would face significant logistical challenges in sustaining an effective military presence on the continent. This could also impact the African Corps, whose military leaders in countries like Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso depend on Russian support to combat internal security threats. A disruption in rapid supply chains from Moscow to the African Corps via Syria could leave these allied regimes vulnerable to insurgent attacks and terrorist threats, ultimately undermining Russia’s influence in Africa.
Weakened Naval Capabilities: The Tartus Base is Russia’s only naval port in the Mediterranean, and losing it would severely impact Russia’s maritime operations in the region. Without it, Russian warships would struggle to operate in warm waters, limiting their ability to counter the US Sixth Fleet stationed in the Mediterranean. This could diminish Russia’s influence in future regional conflicts, such as the Libyan crisis, which serves as a key gateway for Moscow into Africa.
Economic Consequences: Russian companies operating in Syria, particularly in the energy and mining sectors, will face disruptions to their contracts, leading to economic losses. This trend has already begun, as the new Syrian administration canceled in January the agreement with Stroytransgaz (CTG), the Russian firm responsible for managing and operating the Tartus port.
Negotiating with the New Syrian Administration and Seeking Viable Alternatives
The potential loss of military bases in Syria has prompted Russia to explore solutions, including negotiations with the new Syrian administration to preserve these strategic assets while also scouting for alternative locations to establish new military installations.
Negotiations to Maintain Military Bases in Syria: Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Moscow has been engaged in negotiations with the new Syrian administration to secure its military presence. As discussions progressed, the Syrian government showed significant openness to allowing Russia to maintain its bases—provided that Syria benefits from the arrangement. This was reflected in a statement by the new Syrian Defense Minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, in an interview with The Washington Post, in which he indicated that Russia could retain its military bases in exchange for tangible gains for Syria.
Relatedly, reports have surfaced about talks between Damascus and Moscow concerning a possible debt relief agreement. Syria currently owes Russia between $20 billion and $23 billion, and negotiations are underway to either write off the debt or restructure repayment terms. Additionally, the Syrian government is seeking financial compensation for the damage caused by Russian military operations in Syrian cities, as well as the return of Syrian funds allegedly looted by the Assad regime and deposited in Russian banks or converted into fixed assets. Given the growing pressures Russia faces, particularly due to the war in Ukraine, Moscow may be willing to make certain concessions to accommodate Syria’s demands and preserve its strategic alliance.
However, these negotiations face strong opposition from the Syrian public, which remains deeply resentful of Russia’s political and military support for the Assad regime. Furthermore, they clash with the new Syrian administration’s efforts to secure European and American backing and lift sanctions on Syria. Despite the United States’ likely reluctance to allow Russia to reassert its influence in Syria, a significant geopolitical shift has recently emerged that might reduce US opposition: Israel’s push to keep Russian bases in Syria. According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel is lobbying Washington to allow Russia to retain its military presence in Syria as a means of counterbalancing Turkish influence and ensuring Syria remains weak and fragmented. Given the unwavering support of former US President Donald Trump’s administration for Israel, this pressure could lead the United States to show flexibility regarding Russia’s continued military presence in Syria.
Libya—A Potential Alternative to Syria: As Russia negotiates with the new Syrian administration, it is also actively seeking alternatives to maintain its military influence in the region in the event of losing its bases in Syria. Libya and Sudan have emerged as Moscow’s primary options. Russia already maintains a military presence in Libya, which serves as the main hub for the Russian African Corps, and enjoys strong ties with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Meanwhile, in Sudan, Russia has been attempting to revive an agreement to establish a naval base in Port Sudan, though Sudan’s political instability could limit operational capabilities—making Libya the more viable alternative to Syria.
that Russia is actively working to strengthen its military presence in Libya, particularly in the east, as an alternative to its bases in Syria. Moscow has reportedly established an air bridge to transport military cargo, including advanced defense systems, to Libya following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia has been transferring advanced air defense systems and other weaponry from its Syrian bases to military sites under the control of Moscow-backed Khalifa Haftar forces. The report also highlighted Russia’s expansion efforts in Tobruk to accommodate Russian naval vessels.
Meanwhile, ItaMilRadar—a platform specializing in tracking military flights and naval movements—revealed that Russia is planning to transfer military equipment from its Syrian bases to two potential destinations in Libya: Tobruk and Benghazi. The report also noted that Moscow is particularly focused on the Cyrenaica region (Barqa), given its strategic potential for establishing both an air and a naval base.
These reports highlight Russia’s efforts to reposition itself following its declining influence and military strength in Syria. Moscow has reassessed its geopolitical priorities, shifting its focus toward Libya as part of a broader plan to strengthen its presence in Africa and consolidate its regional influence. Libya’s significance stems from its role as the primary headquarters for the Russian African Corps, which operates across five African countries, namely Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, and Libya. The selection of Libya as the main hub is due to its strategic location as a northern gateway to Africa, a key pressure point against NATO and the European Union, and a corridor to the sub-Saharan region—facilitating Russia’s expansion across the continent. Additionally, Libya’s coastline serves as a crucial military supply route. Previously, the Wagner Group maintained a presence in several strategic locations, including Ghardabiya Air Base and the Port of Sirte.
However, the potential establishment of Russian military bases in Libya poses a security threat to European and NATO countries, increasing the likelihood of Libya becoming a battleground for global and regional powers. This risk is heightened by Turkey’s growing influence in Libya, which could lead to a renewed power struggle between Russia and Turkey—similar to their confrontation in Syria. These geopolitical challenges could have repercussions for Egypt, given Libya’s direct geographical and strategic significance for Cairo.
In short, Russia is actively pursuing multiple strategies to preserve its status as a key global and regional power capable of competing for influence in strategic regions across the Middle East and Africa. It is simultaneously negotiating with the new Syrian administration to retain its military bases while exploring alternatives, particularly in Libya. However, the complex security and political challenges surrounding Russia’s potential new base in Libya could ultimately push Moscow to make concessions to the Syrian administration in order to maintain its strategic bases in Syria.
