With the Gaza conflict extending into its tenth month and the resultant instability affecting the region, including Houthi attacks on the Red Sea and the specific targeting of the port of Eilat, coupled with the absence of a direct Israeli response and reliance on Western allies’ interventions, a series of Israeli airstrikes hit the al-Hudaydah port on July 20, resulting in numerous casualties. These airstrikes followed a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv the previous day, raising serious questions about the implications of the intensifying escalatory rhetoric between Israel and the Houthis.
Houthi Attacks and International Action
Houthi Involvement in Gaza War: Since the onset of the Israeli-Gaza conflict, the Houthis have declared their alliance with Hamas by targeting Israel’s port of Eilat with multiple ballistic missiles and drones. Beyond that, in a speech on November 14, 2023, the group’s leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, declared, “Our eyes are open to constantly monitor and search for any Israeli ship in the Red Sea, especially in Bab al-Mandab, and near Yemeni regional waters.” Hence, on November 19, the group seized the Galaxy Leader cargo ship, owned by Israel-based Ray Shipping LTD, and on December 9, they announced a ban on the passage of all ships of all nationalities heading to and from Israeli ports.
Response of Israel’s Allies: In response to the Houthi disruption of global trade, the United States initiated Operation Prosperity Guardian. On December 18, 2023, in Bahrain, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational naval force to safeguard maritime traffic in the region. The United States and Britain, executed coordinated attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen, supported by the multinational force. Furthermore, European nations declared the start of Operation Aspides in the Red Sea last February to secure regional navigation.
Restricted Escalation
Amidst its intense involvement in the Gaza Strip conflict, skirmishes with Hezbollah, and its proxy conflict with Iran in Syria, Tel Aviv didn’t address the Houthi threat directly. Instead, it relied on Western allies for the Red Sea issue. On December 3, 2023, the Israeli government opted to deploy several naval vessels and an advanced submarine to the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab to monitor Iranian activities.
However, for the first time since the onset of the Gaza war, Israel took responsibility for a strike on al-Hudaydah port, executed by 12 F-35 aircraft launched from Nevatim Airbase on July 20. The operation, dubbed Operation Long Arm, targeted critical gas and oil storage facilities and a power station at the port. This strike, carried out in coordination with the United States and the US-led international coalition aimed at curbing Houthi threats in the Red Sea, ignited significant fires, resulting in 14 deaths and at least 90 injuries, according to Axios. Israel justified the attack as targeting a key conduit for Iranian weaponry and a crucial economic asset for the Houthis.
The strike followed a drone explosion in Tel Aviv, just a few meters from the US embassy, which caused the death of one Israeli and the injury of ten others. According to the Israeli army spokesperson, the initial probe identified the drone as an Iranian-made Samad 3 model. Notably, on July 19, Yahya Saree, the Houthi military spokesperson, revealed that the Houthis executed a sophisticated operation in Tel Aviv using a new drone named Yaffa, capable of bypassing interception systems and remaining undetected by radar, adding that the operation was conducted in retaliation for the Israeli atrocities against Palestinians in Gaza.
Numerous Implications
Growing Escalatory Rhetoric: The Houthis’ targeting of a building near the US embassy in Tel Aviv and Israel’s retaliatory strike on al-Hudaydah port underscore the escalating threat rhetoric. Since October 7, the Houthis have targeted the port of Eilat and ships bound for Israel multiple times without directly hitting Tel Aviv. Israel, until now, had refrained from responding to these attacks and relied on the international coalition to address the situation. The direct hit on Tel Aviv, however, triggered Israel’s launch of Operation Long Arm. This operation is significant not only for the strategic targets it struck, including fuel storage facilities and a large power station, but also for Israel’s direct involvement, a departure from its previous indirect responses.
Saving Face: Over the past few months, the Houthis have launched roughly 200 aerial assaults on Israel, bolstered by Iranian backing. The international coalition led by the United States intercepted the majority of these attacks, while Israel chose not to engage. However, with recent Houthi strikes targeting Tel Aviv and resulting in the death of an Israeli citizen, Israel’s leadership might have been keen to demonstrate that American and British deterrence has not been effective. In this vein, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a high-level meeting with the leaders of the Israel Defense Forces and Mossad, along with Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, during which the Head of the Operations Directorate of the General Staff outlined that failing to respond to the attacks on Tel Aviv and depending solely on the international coalition’s efforts might be perceived as a sign of Israeli weakness. He further emphasized that a decisive Israeli response was essential to signal that attacks on Tel Aviv are an unacceptable red line.
Tactical Failure: Despite the Israeli air force’s continuous patrols over the Red Sea and eastern regions, aimed at identifying potential threats, and the heightened security measures across Israel’s airspace, the Israeli air defense system failed to intercept the drone. Eyewitnesses tracked the drone’s low-altitude course over the sea, noting it flew no higher than the building it ultimately struck. This incident underscores a significant failure of Israel’s defenses, particularly given that the Israeli Air Force employs advanced detection methods, including satellites, visual surveillance, and radar. Following the drone’s crash, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid demanded the resignation of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. He declared, “This attack is yet another proof that this [Netanyahu’s] government does not know and cannot give security to the citizens of Israel.” He further remarked, “Those who lose deterrence in the north and south also lose it in the heart of Tel Aviv.”
Multi-Front Pressure: This attack could be a maneuver by Iran to alleviate the pressure on Hezbollah amidst Israeli threats of war in southern Lebanon. By striking Tel Aviv, Tehran aimed to send an early warning that its proxies can target the heart of Israel and challenge the effectiveness of its Iron Dome defense system. Consequently, this Houthi attack likely seeks to divert Israeli focus and resources across multiple theaters, potentially straining its military capabilities.
Humanitarian Crisis Aggravation: Israel’s assault on the al-Hudaydah port is likely to worsen the already dire humanitarian situation in Yemen rather than curbing Houthi activities. Yemen imports nearly 90% of its fuel, food, and essential supplies, with al-Hudaydah port serving as a critical entry point. The Israeli attack has triggered a severe fuel shortage in many Houthi-controlled cities. Reports indicate that 20 out of over 82 fuel tanks at the port were targeted. Additionally, this strike might deter shipping companies from delivering goods to Yemen, fearing a potential naval blockade by Israel, which would further escalate the suffering of Yemeni citizens.
Bolstering Popularity: Despite the Houthis’ escalatory rhetoric and threats of a fierce response to Israel, as articulated by spokesman Nasr al-Din Amer, who declared on social media that they are at war with the Zionist entity and will escalate their operations in support of Gaza, it is evident that their actions are mainly for local consumption, aimed at diverting attention from domestic issues, maintaining the current political equilibrium, and gaining regional popularity by aligning with the Palestinian struggle.
In conclusion, despite the escalatory rhetoric from both sides, the confrontation between them may not escalate to the same level as the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. However, sporadic exchanges of strikes are likely, especially if another Israeli citizen is killed. As Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant remarked, “the Houthis attacked us over 200 times. The first time that they harmed an Israeli citizen, we struck them. And we will do this in any place where it may be required.”
Overall, both parties are cautious in their action to avoid triggering a large-scale regional conflict. On the one hand, the Houthis may be reluctant to engage in a full-scale war with Israel, particularly in light of the recent strike on al-Hudaydah port and the potential for Israel to hit additional strategic locations in Yemen. Such actions would worsen the humanitarian crisis and could jeopardize the Houthis’ legitimacy and popularity among the Yemeni people. On the other hand, Israel may seek to avoid further military and economic burdens, especially with the simultaneous challenges on three key fronts crucial to its national security.
That said, the threat would persist unless a ceasefire in Gaza is secured.
