Historically, the Horn of Africa has been a geostrategic arena for international and regional competition and conflict, in light of its strategic significance in the equation of international security and economics. This significance arises from the region’s multifaceted wealth, encompassing both tangible and intangible resources: it is endowed with a bounty of natural resources, including precious metals and energy reserves (oil and gas) and boasts abundant water resources, fertile agricultural land, and a skilled population. However, the region’s true strategic importance lies in its geographical location, which extends from the Indian Ocean to the southern entrance to the Red Sea, i.e. the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This positioning gives Horn of Africa control over vital maritime trade routes, namely the Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, with the latter accounting for an estimated 30% of global trade.
The Horn of Africa’s countries face a variety of challenges, including fragile border conflicts that arise as a result of tensions in political relations between countries, as well as resource and wealth conflicts that occur within individual states or across national borders, such as those involving energy, agricultural wealth, and water resources. Add to this the ethnic and tribal conflicts that continue to plague the majority of countries in the Horn of Africa, creating widespread security disruption that aids in the spread of terrorism and increased activity of separatist movements, resulting in a schism in those countries’ interrelationships and a breeding ground for regional and international tension and conflict.
These challenges were further exacerbated by the Houthi group’s violent escalation in the Red Sea, which targeted Israeli ships and those associated with Israel. This was in response to the Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people, which started on October 7, 2023, and continues until now. This escalation presents a threat that is as perilous as the conventional threats encountered by countries in the Horn of Africa.
All of these factors contributed significantly to the escalation of regional conflicts and the deterioration of national state institutions’ capacity to confront them. This opened the door to numerous military interventions from both regional and international actors, which had detrimental effects on resolving the conflicts and contributed to the erosion of the concept of national state sovereignty.
Against this backdrop, the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies convened the “Horn of Africa Conflicts and Their Consequences for Regional and Egyptian Security” conference on June 27 to serve as a platform for experts to delve into the multifaceted security threats plaguing the region.
ECSS General Manager Dr. Khaled Okasha gives the conference’s keynote speech
Various Challenges
A plethora of complicated and interdependent challenges has taken center stage in the Horn of Africa, including:
- Resource-Related Conflicts: Conflicts over resources are a persistent pattern of conflict in the Horn of Africa, and they are associated with other conflicts, such as political, ethnic, and border ones. Both internal and external actors play a role in fostering resource-driven conflicts. The objective is to transition countries into a state of fragility and establish justifications for their existence in all of its manifestations. A prime example of this dynamic is the issue of water scarcity, a factor that readily translates into internal strife, particularly when politicised. Further contributing to this volatile landscape is competition for land access by various regional and international powers, which seek to establish projects with potentially significant internal ramifications. There is also the issue of mineral resources, which represents another significant flashpoint for conflict within the region.
The competition over resources is intricately connected to the quest for influence and dominance, which is inherently tied to the rise of non-state armed actors, as seen in recent events in Sudan. This leads to the collapse of governmental institutions and necessitates the imperative of strengthening local structures.
- Ethnic Conflicts: Ethnic conflicts are regarded as one of the most significant issues in the Horn of Africa, as they involve all countries in the region. These conflicts encompass a variety of types, including ethnic separatist disputes and conflicts, existential ethnic conflicts, and ethnic conflicts that are rooted in ethnic foundations or have a national dimension. This pluralism has exacerbated conflicts and slowed their resolution due to the presence of deeply rooted and extremely complex causes.
- Border Conflicts: Africa’s messy borders, drawn by colonial powers with little regard for pre-existing ethnic and cultural identities, resulted in nation-states that may not fully encompass the lived realities of their citizens. This mismatch has demonstrably exacerbated the intensity of conflicts and national aspirations within the Horn of Africa. Beyond resource and border disputes, an intricate geopolitical competition has emerged, both internally amongst the countries of the region and with external actors, vying for control of strategically significant maritime trade routes. This rivalry manifests demonstrably in the recent memorandum of understanding signed between Ethiopia and the Somaliland region, signifying Ethiopia’s strategic desire to establish a military and commercial presence on the Red Sea. This move, however, disregards the principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, further stoking political tensions and diplomatic crises. Adding fuel to the fire is the international scramble for a foothold in the region, exemplified by the presence of foreign military bases in Djibouti and the proposed transfer of valuable resources through regional ports, which serves as another factor that exacerbates the complex challenges faced by the countries of the Horn of Africa.
- Armed Group Conflicts: A significant threat to the Horn of Africa’s stability emerges from the concurrent activities of armed extremist groups with transnational ambitions that directly impact regional security. These groups include the Houthi movement in Yemen, the al-Shabaab in Somalia, and Daesh. The potential for these groups to form alliances, as evidenced by reported rapprochement between the Houthis and al-Shabaab, would significantly exacerbate existing instability throughout the region, including the Red Sea. This convergence would also contribute to the transformation of these movements into a regional project.
Furthermore, the rise of militia states or non-state armed groups within the Horn of Africa presents a critical security dilemma. The activities of these entities demonstrably contribute to the deterioration of regional political stability and pose a direct threat to national security.
Panelists exchanging ideas during the conference’s second session
Egyptian National Security and Conflict Dynamics in the Horn of Africa
The stability of the Horn of Africa is inextricably linked to Egyptian national security. This region is regarded as one of Egypt’s primary spheres of influence, where Egypt not only plays an active role but is also significantly impacted by the multifaceted challenges arising from the region’s ongoing security concerns, ethnic conflicts, civil wars, and complex political and economic landscapes. Perhaps the most pressing threat to Egyptian national security emanating from the Horn of Africa is terrorism. This scourge not only burdens the source countries but also casts a long shadow on Egypt’s national security calculus.
Similarly, the fragility of states within the Horn of Africa and the ineffectiveness of their institutions in combating cross-border crimes generate regional consequences. For instance, civil wars primarily driven by competition for power and resources often trigger a mass exodus of asylum seekers and migrants towards neighbouring countries. Reports indicate that the combined number of internally displaced persons and refugees from the Horn of Africa and East Africa exceeds 20 million. An exemplary and recent demonstration of this phenomenon is the ruthless conflict in Sudan, which resulted in an unprecedented influx of refugees into Egypt.
Furthermore, the surge in attacks on maritime shipping lanes in the Red Sea observed since the beginning of 2024 has significantly contributed to the increased militarization of regional security arrangements, which, in turn, has attracted greater foreign intervention and significantly hampered commercial shipping activity within globally recognized and trusted corridors, primarily the Suez Canal.
Urgent Needs and Mechanisms
The complex threats emanating from the Horn of Africa necessitate the development of comprehensive policies and mechanisms to address them. These policies should prioritize a win-win approach for all parties and stakeholders, fostering a collective response to conflicts and crises and preventing further destabilization. The following mechanisms could offer potential solutions:
- Integration and Cooperation: Establishing a permanent forum for dialogue and coordination among all Horn of Africa countries is vital. This forum would facilitate discussions on existing and potential threats, leading to the development of mutually agreeable solutions by adopting a mechanism for comprehensive dialogue between regional countries, with the potential for participation from internationally active forces within the region.
- Activating Early Warning Systems: Complementing the above, urgent action is required to implement robust early warning systems for resource-based conflicts. Data analysis of historical conflicts and resource scarcity should be prioritized to inform proactive policies. Furthermore, regional development projects should be established to address economic disparities and mitigate future conflict triggers.
- Activating Institutional Mechanisms: To effectively address crises and conflicts, it is necessary to strengthen regional institutions like the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. This includes refining their post-conflict reconstruction and development policies to address conflicts of all forms and magnitudes. Additionally, these organizations should be empowered to collaborate with parties involved in regional conflicts, both international and regional. Such collaboration should affirm state sovereignty and reject solutions imposed through a “fait accompli” approach, as exemplified by Ethiopia’s handling of the Somaliland issue and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
In this vein, prioritizing African-led solutions to the continent’s specific conflicts and challenges and strengthening the role of the AU’s Centre for Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development launched in Cairo to facilitate coordinated assistance to African countries are essential. This will help promote peace and development by implementing a development and peace strategy to address regional conflicts.
- Active and Positive International Engagement: The role of external actors in the Horn of Africa’s conflicts cannot be overlooked. They may act as catalysts or participants in these conflicts, depending on their engagement. Given the region’s significance in global issues like freedom of navigation, piracy, terrorism, and migration flows, the Horn of Africa transcends regional boundaries and becomes an international concern. Therefore, it is imperative for international powers to actively engage in peacebuilding initiatives and contribute to dismantling conflicts in the region, both armed and resource-based, as is the case with Ethiopia’s utilization of water resources as a regional pressure tactic, leading to destabilization and potentially igniting a wider conflict. This necessitates a renewed focus from Western powers, particularly the United States and European countries, on water issues and broader regional peace and stability and their shift from seeking African proxies to comprehensive policies promoting stability and development.
