As the U.S. navigates a complex presidential race, former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania election rally on July 14. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) classified the incident as an “attempted assassination” and identified the perpetrator as Thomas Matthew Crooks. The authorities disclosed that Crooks, a 20-year-old Republican, had previously made a small financial contribution to a group allied with the Democrats, as reported by CNN.
This incident raises pressing questions about the underlying causes and potential repercussions for the American political landscape as it gears up for the November presidential elections.
Overlapping Reasons
Less than three weeks after the first debate in the US presidential race was held between the oldest president in the history of the United States, Joe Biden, and his Republican rival, Donald Trump, who is entangled in various legal accusations, the US political scene was shaken by a significant event. Trump was targeted during an election rally in Pennsylvania, a development that could have profound implications. While conspiracy theories abound from both political camps and the reasons behind the incident remain unclear, this event can be understood against the backdrop of the various crises currently besetting the American political landscape, which we detail below:
Polarization and Political Division
The United States is grappling with intensifying polarization and widening political divisions, particularly since Trump’s first term. This divide deepened further with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, highlighting racial disparities between white communities and people of color. The killing of George Floyd and the ensuing protests underscored this polarization, which reached a fever pitch with the storming of Capitol Hill in January 2021 and Trump’s and his supporters’ rejection of the election results.
In his article in the Fall 2022 issue of the National Affairs magazine, titled “Polarization and the Political Elite,” Todd Washburn, former Assistant Provost for International Affairs at Harvard University, remarked, “Americans today are far more likely than those of the late 20th century to assert their ideological and political identities.” Washburn noted that in 2020, 40% of Americans strongly identified as either liberal or conservative, up from 29% in 2000. Similarly, 44% identified as a “strong” Democrat or Republican in 2020, the highest percentage recorded in 70 years.
The attempted shooting of Trump not only reflects the extreme division in the US arena but also showcases polarization in reactions on social media. According to Bloomberg, some posts accused President Biden of inciting the shooting, while others claimed the incident was staged. On platforms like X and Telegram, posts falsely identified the shooter as Mark Violets, labelling him an extremist in the left-wing Antifa movement. These allegations were echoed by some political figures. Republican Representative Mike Collins tweeted, “Joe Biden sent the orders,” and Senator J.D. Vance claimed, “[Biden’s] rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”
Rising Tide of Violence
Trump’s attempted assassination underscores a broader trend of escalating violence across the United States, a phenomenon that has grown increasingly severe over the past decade. This surge is partly fueled by the polarizing rhetoric and actions of the political elite. According to the Gun Violence Archive, 2023 saw an average of 118 deaths per day due to gun violence. The number of mass shootings also remains alarmingly high, with 689 incidents in 2021, 647 in 2022, and 656 in 2023. A poll conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Brookings Institution last October concluded that one in four Americans believe that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save [their] country.”
Rachel Kleinfeld, in her paper on “Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States,” argues that the surge in violence is a direct result of elite polarization. She notes, “The normalization of violence by political leaders, in particular, may provide a sense that acting violently against those groups will be permitted, may not be punished, or could be lauded and turn one into a hero.” She emphasized that the persistence of this approach by the political elite has “clearly raised the cost.” The surge in violent threats has extended beyond political figures to include judges, with hate crimes reaching unprecedented levels and mass shootings notably increasing.
Most analyses attribute the rising violence in the United States to several key factors, with the constitutionality of bearing arms being paramount. This right, affirmed repeatedly by the Supreme Court, has fostered a widespread culture of gun ownership and use among Americans. Additionally, social media has played a significant role in exacerbating violence through the proliferation of incitement speeches and the amplification of violent behaviors.
The Crisis of America’s Youth
The FBI’s information reveals that the perpetrator of the incident is a 20-year-old from Generation Z, highlighting the significant crises facing American youth. Berkeley News, in an interview with Sarah Swanbeck and Erin Heys from the University of California, Berkeley, explained that many young people in the United States feel deeply “disillusioned” with the political and economic systems. They added that some youth sectors now view the “American Dream as farther and farther out of reach.” Moreover, there is a growing concern among young people about the political system being dominated by “special interests and dark money.” Consequently, many young individuals no longer affiliate with any political party due to their belief that these parties fail to positively impact their lives.
Relatedly, the Wall Street Journal reported a pervasive sense of “gloominess” among Generation Z, stemming from deep skepticism about the American elite’s ability to address their concerns. The article noted that most political memories for American youth are predominantly negative, marred by “intense partisanship and warnings about the looming end of everything from U.S. democracy to the planet.” According to a recent poll by the newspaper, over three-quarters of voters under 30 believe the country is “moving in the wrong direction,” with nearly a third harboring negative opinions of both Biden and Trump. Moreover, 63% of young voters feel that neither political party represents them adequately.
In the same context, an analysis issued by the National Center for Health Statistics in mid-2023 indicated that for individuals between the ages of 20 and 24, the homicide rate increased by approximately 49% between 2014 and 2020, while the suicide rate among this age group rose by 63% over the two decades covered by the study.
Compound Consequences
As the United States braces for a seemingly “unusual” presidential election, the attempted assassination of Republican candidate Donald Trump mere months before the election adds a new layer of complexity to an already strained political climate. Below, we explore the key potential outcomes of this incident on the American political scene:
Tarnishing the Image of Democrats
President Biden and his administration swiftly responded to the incident, condemning it in no uncertain terms. The White House quoted Biden during his address at the NAACP National Convention in Las Vegas, denouncing the violence and expressing his prayers for Trump, his family, and those that were present at the rally. Reuters noted that Biden reached out to Trump, as well as Governor Josh Shapiro and Mayor Bob Dandoy. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin also condemned the incident, firmly stating, “This is not how we resolve our differences in America—and it must never be.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed his deep dismay, stating he was “shocked and saddened” by the incident. Echoing this sentiment, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer denounced the violence, declaring, “Political violence has no place in our country.”
Despite this, the incident is likely to tarnish the Democrats’ image. This perception isn’t just fueled by comments from Republicans like Mike Collins and J.D. Vance, who blame the Democrats and their rhetoric, particularly given security revelations suggesting a possible alliance between the perpetrator and certain Democratic groups but also being seen as part of a broader series of Democratic attempts to oust Trump, starting with two attempts to incriminate him—one during his presidency and another after Biden’s win—and continuing with what some describe as a “political liquidation” through the judicial system.
Increasing Trump’s Chances of Winning
The targeting of Trump during the election rally reinforces his claims of a conspiracy aimed at excluding him from the political arena. This narrative empowers him to rally his supporters as a potent political force against his opponents—a strategy he’s employed multiple times, most notably during the Capitol Hill attack in January 2021 and has also used it to challenge the ongoing judicial proceedings against him, which arise from a lengthy list of accusations. Consequently, the incident in Pennsylvania illustrates his ability to transform adversity into political capital, portraying himself as a victim of a conspiracy simply for authentically representing the voice of the American populace.
In this context, it is anticipated that this incident will bolster Trump’s chances in the ongoing presidential race, particularly by tapping into populist and potentially incendiary rhetoric that stirs national pride against the backdrop of a “conspiracy against America.” This sentiment was echoed by Trump’s son, who asserted that his father “will never stop fighting to save America, no matter what the radical left throws at him.” Meanwhile, the Trump campaign confirmed his attendance at the upcoming Republican National Convention, emphasizing their commitment to nominating him as the forty-seventh president of the United States. In his initial response to the incident, Trump called for unity to ensure that evil does not prevail. Some analysts suggest that the “fist” gesture Trump made following the incident could become a rallying symbol for this next chapter.
Increased Counter-Violence
While the details surrounding the Pennsylvania incident, in which Republican candidate Trump was targeted, have not fully disclosed whether the perpetrator acted alone or belonged to a violent leftist organization, there is a possibility of a rising surge of retaliatory violence from Trump supporters against his opponents in reaction to the incident. This expectation is primarily influenced by the inflammatory language used by both Trump and his Republican supporters, particularly those associated with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Additionally, there have been instances of violent behavior exhibited by certain sectors and groups of Trump supporters, such as the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, which have occurred on multiple occasions. Examples of such incidents include the 2018 campaign of intimidation by Cesar Sayoc, who sent bombs to critics of President Trump, as well as David DePape breaking into the home of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco and assaulting her husband, Paul Pelosi, with a hammer.
Furthermore, the sense of conspiracy and desire for revenge that may influence Trump’s followers could lead to an escalation of violence as they seek to retaliate against their leader’s perceived adversaries. This implies that the Pennsylvania incident will not only serve as a catalyst for additional violence, but it may also serve as the rationale or justification that Trump’s supporters will employ to bolster their stance.
In short, the Pennsylvania incident shines a spotlight on the complex dynamics at play in America today. It underscores the dangers associated with rising violence and its multifaceted repercussions, which threaten not only the fabric of US democracy but also the very bedrock of American political stability. This situation calls for the nation’s leaders, both Democratic and Republican, to steer political competition with a steady hand and realign the political process towards the common good, transcending polarization and division.
