“Power Play on the Nile” is the title of Erik Stokstad’s article published in Science magazine on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis. The article was spread over four pages, half of which were pictures of the dam. The article began by reciting the history of the plans of Ethiopian dams, starting with the study conducted by the US Office for Land Reclamation from the late 1950s until 1964. The study was updated throughout the years.
Stokstad then discussed the 1999 Nile Basin initiative which received $200 million in Western funding. Through the initiative, several studies were conducted on joint projects for Nile Basin countries. Egypt agreed to the construction of an Ethiopian dam in 2008 to generate 2,100 MW of power on the Blue Nile. At the same time, former prime minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi was planning to build a mega dam on the Blue Nile with local funding through bonds.
The time Ethiopia chose to announce the construction of its mega dam was during the 25 January 2011 Revolution of Egypt. On 3 February 2011, Zenawi announced his country’s intent to build the GERD. The foundation stone was laid in April 2011.
Today, the dam is near completion. Its maximum capacity is 6,000 MW, but on average it will produce 2,000 MW, which will be used to cover some of Ethiopia’s domestic needs, while the rest will be exported to Sudan.
The Blue Nile discharge will benefit Sudanese large farms year-round, such as the 800-hectar Island project. It will, however, cause multiple harms to Sudan’s small farms that depend on flood waters to wash their lands and rejuvenate the soil. Small farms will have to use pumps to deliver water to their lands, use fertilizers and build a draining network.
Stokstad added that the regulation of Blue Nile water throughout the years will increase the productivity of Sudanese power-generating dams by 20 percent, or 1,000 GW, per year, and that Sudan will benefit from reserving the silt and sediment in front of the GERD instead of them filling Sudan’s dams and shortening their lifespan.
The writer, nonetheless, admitted that the GERD will decrease the water level in the reservoir of Egypt’s Lake Nasser, reducing Egypt’s production of electricity and its irrigation water.
Stokstad said the leaked report of the international tripartite committee on GERD, issued in May 2013, caused heated controversy after being obtained by the International Rivers organization in early 2014. The report recommended the revision of studies on the repercussion of the GERD on the flow of Nile water to Egypt and Sudan, pointing out to grave errors in the design of the foundation of the dam that may lead to its collapse. The author added that the report of the international tripartite committee recommended international studies be conducted on the dam’s construction safety, its negative effects on the quality of water and other environmental problems.
The writer added that International Rivers said the blueprints and designs of the dam were inaccurate and incomplete and that the dam’s effect on local residents were not clear. Ethiopia claimed that the 3,000 residents of the GERD area would be relocated, while US geography expert Jennifer Felix at the University of Florida said that the locals in the GERD area numbered at least 20,000 people. Felix added the residents were minorities and the GERD would erase their communities and ancient civilizations.
Stokstad said opponents of the GERD fear its negative effect on Egypt while filling the reservoir that is expected to take between five and seven years. During the first year, 10 percent of the average annual sediment of the Blue Nile will be stored in Egypt. The sediment will steadily increase on an annual basis.
The writer said Dr Paul Block of the University of Wisconsin published a research in 2014 in the magazine of the American Society of Civil Engineers explaining that filling the GERD reservoir would result in a water crisis and shortage in electricity generation in Egypt.
If the GERD reservoir is to be filled during high or medium flood years the repercussions on Egypt will not be catastrophic, but if the dam is filled during drought Egypt will suffer, the research added. And in a blatant provocation to the Egyptians, the writer stated, Dr Yilma Seleshi of the Addis Ababa University told him that Ethiopia can’t wait to generate electricity from the GERD and that if Egypt and Sudan were not to understand that, Ethiopia will fill the reservoir from Egypt’s share of Nile water.
The author then wrote about the Egyptian Nile Basin group, formed of university professors and intellectuals who warned in a 2013 publication that the catastrophic repercussions of the GERD will not be limited to the years of filling the reservoir but will be permanent. The negative effects of the GERD will reach their maximum during the years of Nile drought when a drastic decrease in the reservoir of Lake Nasser will be observed, huge lots of agricultural lands will not be cultivated, and millions of farmers will become jobless.
The article added that the Egyptian Nile Basin group warned that the decrease of Nile water flowing to Egypt will result in the accumulation of salt in the Delta region and increase the saltiness of underground water due to mixing with sea water. Stokstad added that other experts shared different views, such as Dr Amiore Tilmant of the Laval University in Canada who believes that coordinating the operation of the High Dam with the GERD can decrease the negative repercussions on Egypt and that the GERD reservoir can provide additional water to Egypt during the years of drought.
Stokstad said that Dr Mohamed Nasr El-Din Allam, a professor in the Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University and former irrigation minister in Egypt, was fearful of Ethiopia’s real intentions behind building the dam, believing that its size was exaggerated and that Ethiopia will build other dams to control every drop of Blue Nile water.
The writer also expressed fears of the construction design of the Saddle Dam, extending for five kilometres, at the height of 50 meters, south of the GERD. Stokstad said that millions of people will be killed if the Saddle Dam were to collapse.
He stated that the report of the international tripartite committee said the GERD lacked the right design that can prevent its collapse under the pressure of water stored in front of it. The writer added that a 2014 workshop at MIT University in the US expressed fears of the possibility of the collapse of the dam, explaining that Dr Yilma Seleshe said that concrete will be used for the outer surface of the dam and to close the cracks under it.
Stokstad concluded by saying that multiples hurdles were expected to come up during negotiations on decreasing the negative effects of the GERD.
This article was published first in: The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies, The Gran Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Crisis: dimensions, Repercussions and Future Courses, Especial Edition, October 2019.
