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Arab & Regional Studies

Escalating Misery: What Lies Ahead for Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis?

Salma Abdel-Moneim
Last updated: 2024/11/12 at 2:20 PM
Salma Abdel-Moneim
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The ongoing conflicts and the unpredictability of war have severe negative repercussions on human rights, leading to a sharp rise in violations. Vulnerable groups, including women and children, face heightened risks such as violence and displacement, while many families are compelled to endure harsh conditions, which worsens living standards and deprives them of essential education and health care. Furthermore, weapons and military force are frequently employed to curb fundamental freedoms, exacerbating civilian suffering.

Amid an alarming silence from the international community, Sudan has endured nearly 18 months of devastation, resulting in one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises, unfolding far from the gaze of global media. Women and children are bearing the brunt, facing massacres, widespread displacement, and relentless famine. Sudan has experienced a dramatic surge in armed conflicts over recent years, with numerous factions and political forces involved, threatening the most basic rights of the Sudanese people—the right to life, food, and water.

This paper will examine the dimensions of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan and the severe toll of war, which is overwhelmingly borne by society’s most vulnerable groups, caught between the struggle to secure a decent life and the often forced choice of displacement and migration, which leaves them facing immense hardships that strain not only Sudan but also neighboring countries. It will also explore the future trajectory of this crisis, considering the diminishing role of the international community in addressing it.

I. The Scope of Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis: Facts and Figures

Since April 2023, Sudan has experienced a significant intensification of armed conflict between forces loyal to army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by his former deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. This conflict, deeply rooted in Sudan’s history of military and political strife, has severely fractured the country’s security and humanitarian landscape. Widespread damage has impacted many cities and regions, resulting in a high toll of deaths and injuries, while the humanitarian repercussions of the conflict remain dire and far-reaching.

The numbers are both terrifying and deeply alarming. Beyond the appalling human rights abuses, the mass displacement of millions since the war began, and the severe shortage of essential services for much of the population, the crisis extends beyond merely displacing people. It reaches formerly stable areas, while the influx of millions of refugees and displaced individuals places overwhelming pressure on host communities, pushing them to the brink of collapse and endangering stability across the entire region.

According to United Nations reports, around 25 million people in Sudan urgently need humanitarian aid, including approximately 14 million children facing critical food insecurity. Additionally, about 37% of the population—roughly 17.7 million people—are experiencing extreme hunger.

Notably, there is a range of international treaties governing the treatment of civilians, soldiers, and prisoners of war, collectively known as the Law of Armed Conflict or International Humanitarian Law. Among these, the Geneva Convention IV Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Times of War (1949) mandates that attacks on military targets must be proportionate, meaning they should not result in excessive civilian casualties or damage to civilian property relative to the anticipated direct military advantage. Additionally, Article 8 of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court defines the bombing of unarmed civilians who are not involved in hostilities and the intentional destruction of civilian sites as war crimes.

Sudan has been a party to these treaties since 1957, which places both a legal and moral duty on Khartoum to uphold these regulations. This obligation compels the Sudanese government to protect civilians during armed conflicts and to ensure humane treatment for the wounded and prisoners of war.

Since hostilities began in Sudan, the warring parties have consistently affirmed their commitment to international humanitarian law, as seen in numerous statements and agreements, including the Jeddah Declaration issued in May 2023. Central to this declaration is the imperative to differentiate between civilians and combatants, and between civilian and military targets. This requires all parties to avoid targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure. Any breach of this principle risks further intensifying humanitarian suffering across the country. Additionally, the warring parties must avoid any attacks that result in excessive civilian harm relative to the anticipated military gain and must take all feasible measures to minimize civilian casualties, including evacuating urban areas and residential buildings. The use of civilians as human shields is strictly prohibited as well. Despite the stated commitments of Sudan’s conflicting parties to uphold international humanitarian law, the situation on the ground reveals a devastating humanitarian crisis. Statistics show a marked increase in the number of victims and displaced persons, with casualties far exceeding projections, underscoring the extent of the parties’ failure to adhere to agreed humanitarian standards.

II. Violations of Civilian Rights in Sudan: Escalating Suffering and a Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

Amid the ongoing conflict, civilians in Sudan are enduring famine, disease, and mass displacement as the war continues for nearly 18 months. Reports reveal that the civilian casualty figures since the war’s outbreak are catastrophic and alarming. Humanitarian and health organizations have recorded a sharp rise in the number of deaths and injuries, as well as the devastating effects on the lives of millions who are grappling with food insecurity and deteriorating health conditions.

There are no precise or reliable figures on civilian casualties in Sudan since the war began. The World Health Organization reported that the death toll slightly surpassed 20,000, while Genocide Watch estimated that around 150,000 people had died between the start of the conflict in mid-April 2023 and the end of August. The ongoing war in Sudan presents significant challenges to efforts to track victims and document damages, with continued fighting causing mass displacement. This situation makes it extremely difficult to gather accurate data on casualties and injuries. Additionally, the lack of security and deteriorating infrastructure obstructs the work of humanitarian organizations and journalists attempting to document the truth. Limited access to affected areas complicates matters, leading to conflicting reports and making it hard to assess the humanitarian crisis accurately.

The most significant violations against civilians include the restriction of civilian movement due to the ongoing conflict between the warring parties, alongside reports of arbitrary arrests, kidnappings, torture, cases of enforced disappearances, forced recruitment of youth, child trafficking for recruitment purposes, and continued violations against displaced persons and refugees. Add to this conflict-related sexual violence, including the rape of women and children, trafficking for sexual slavery, targeted killings—especially of human rights defenders, journalists, doctors, and lawyers—diminishing civil space, suppression of free expression, and the imposition of movement restrictions or outright denial of passage for those in conflict-affected areas. This contradicts with international humanitarian laws and treaties that safeguard civilian protection during conflict. The Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions emphasizes the protection of civilians in armed conflicts, explicitly prohibiting attacks on civilians, collective punishment, terrorism, rape, assault, looting, and other such violations.

However, what is unfolding in Sudan constitutes a clear breach of international conventions. Civilians are being intentionally targeted, and all forms of violations are being inflicted upon them, with no distinction made between women and children. The situation goes beyond this, as the warring parties are actively blocking the delivery of humanitarian aid, which has led to widespread famine in several regions, including Khartoum, Darfur, Kordofan, and more recently, the al-Jazirah region. Preventing humanitarian assistance from reaching those in desperate need is a blatant violation of international humanitarian principles, further intensifying the suffering of civilians, particularly women and children, and putting their survival at risk under extremely harsh conditions.

These actions are occurring despite the conflicting parties’ public declarations of their commitment to upholding international humanitarian law, as outlined in various agreements and statements made since the outbreak of the war.

III. The Refugees and Displaced: The Struggle of Sudanese People Amidst the Weight of War

Even before the conflict erupted, Sudan was grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis. Prolonged political instability and economic strain had already left 15.8 million people in need of aid, and the ongoing conflict has only worsened the situation. Currently, 25.6 million people—over half of Sudan’s population—require aid. Despite the fact that one in eight of the world’s internally displaced persons are from Sudan, the fighting continues to drive millions more to rural areas, intensifying the crisis and worsening food insecurity.

According to estimates by the International Organization for Migration, around 40,000 people were newly displaced within Sudan in the first half of October alone, as hostilities intensified in certain areas with the end of the rainy season. This brings the total number of internally displaced people in Sudan since the conflict erupted in April last year to nearly 8.2 million.

The displacement of civilians has placed mounting strain on healthcare resources, along with water, sanitation, and hygiene services. A measles outbreak has claimed the lives of over 1,000 children across Sudan, while a severe cholera outbreak has led to 8,000 confirmed cases and 299 fatalities.

Unfortunately, the scale of displacement—and the urgent humanitarian needs it creates—continues to grow daily, with half of Sudan’s population now requiring assistance but unable to access shelter, safe drinking water, or even basic healthcare. Illnesses are spreading at an alarming pace. The scarce resources and limited international aid has heightened the risk of violence between host communities and displaced individuals. The elderly, people with disabilities, as well as women and girls, face targeted attacks from some within host communities, intensifying the conflict further.

Meanwhile, approximately three million people have fled Sudan, seeking safety across borders in neighboring countries and beyond, with most heading to the Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, South Sudan, and Uganda. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, this exodus has had adverse effects: asylum has placed significant strain on host countries, unemployment rates among refugees are rising, and job opportunities are increasingly limited. This situation creates economic and social tensions, further burdening these countries with challenges in providing essential services such as education and healthcare. As a result, the quality of life for both refugees and local communities is compromised, undermining their rights and intensifying conflict in a region already plagued by political instability.

IV. Women in Sudan’s Crisis: Upholding Women’s Rights amid Conflict

The war has deeply affected the psychological well-being of the majority of Sudanese, particularly women. Many are enduring escalating psychological stress, which goes beyond the anxiety and tension caused by the presence of weapons, extending to harrowing assaults like rape and theft—some of the most destructive forms of psychological harm.

The use of rape as a weapon in conflicts inflicts severe psychological trauma on victims, especially in cases of pregnancy, making it incredibly difficult to offer the necessary psychological and social support to women. There are no reliable figures on the number of rape survivors due to limited resources and the overwhelming number of displaced individuals. Many victims also remain silent about their experiences, either due to societal taboos or the fear of being shamed. According to the United Nations Population Fund, approximately 7 million women and girls in Sudan are at risk of sexual and gender-based violence. Some women have become so despondent that they resort to suicide attempts. The Together Against Rape and Sexual Violence campaign reported 423 rape cases from late last year through July 2024, with 159 cases (around 37%) involving children.

In a recent development, the Secretary-General of the al-Jazirah Conference reported that 37 cases of rape had been documented, alongside 34 additional cases involving women and children in the Rufaa area and surrounding villages during the five days the RSF invaded these regions. Preliminary reports suggest that the RSF employed sexual violence and rape as part of their wartime strategy, aiming to humiliate men, destabilize communities, and force civilians to flee their homes, contributing to their forced displacement.

A report by UN Women also highlighted that access to healthcare remains a significant challenge, particularly for the over 160,000 pregnant women. Women and girls bear the brunt of the lack of clean water, sanitation, and safe hygiene; at least 80 percent of internally displaced women are unable to access clean water, and 74 percent of school-age girls—about 2.5 million—are currently out of school. This increases their vulnerability to harmful practices like child marriage and female genital mutilation.

V. The Sudan Crisis on the Global Stage: Contradictory Responses and Humanitarian Apathy

The international community has been alarmingly slow to respond effectively since the conflict erupted in Sudan. The world’s indifference to the suffering of the Sudanese people, coupled with the lack of immediate humanitarian aid, has worsened the crisis. This has made the Sudanese situation appear as a stark example of international neglect, especially when compared to the extensive responses other crises have received, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and recent events in Gaza.

Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, there has been a rapid influx of international aid, including significant financial support, comprehensive logistical efforts, and widespread diplomatic coordination, along with media campaigns to foster global solidarity with Ukraine. Swift funding was mobilized to address the needs of refugees and deliver emergency aid, ensuring a timely and effective response. In stark contrast, Sudan has struggled to garner similar levels of support, despite facing deepening crises that have left millions of Sudanese grappling with resource shortages, famine, widespread displacement, and countless violations, which have cost the lives of innocent civilians with no involvement in the conflict.

Similarly, the crisis in Gaza has attracted significant international attention from both the media and diplomats, prompting political pressures and discussions about a potential radical solution. Although this attention did not fully translate into the necessary level of humanitarian assistance, it did contribute to mobilizing international efforts to address the crisis. In stark contrast, the Sudanese people, facing a devastating humanitarian collapse, have received only a fraction of the needed funding and continue to suffer from a glaring lack of international intervention. This disparity highlights a clear bias in how crises are addressed, based on global media and political priorities.

This selective approach to responding to crises is a matter that demands an immediate reassessment of the international community’s priorities. Addressing humanitarian emergencies must be impartial, without favoring one issue or population over another, regardless of geographic or political considerations. As outlined in this article, the situation in Sudan is not merely a domestic crisis; it is a crucial test of the international community’s willingness and capacity to ensure that aid reaches those most in need, no matter the circumstances.

VI. The Future of Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis: Growing Complexity and Ongoing Deterioration

The future of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan is on a path toward increasing complexity and worsening conditions unless there are substantial shifts in both international and local responses. Citizens continue to endure dire circumstances, struggling to access even the most basic essentials. Without urgent and significant international intervention, millions of Sudanese will remain in peril, and the crisis will only deepen in the months ahead.

On the other hand, if international marginalization persists and the shortage of funding and humanitarian aid continues, the crisis in Sudan is likely to worsen. Current funding for relief efforts remains significantly inadequate, preventing the delivery of essential aid, including food, shelter, and medical services. Humanitarian organizations are also struggling to access many regions due to the ongoing conflict and deteriorating security, further hindering their ability to provide assistance. This lack of sufficient funding undermines emergency response efforts and leaves millions of Sudanese without the support they urgently need, making the crisis a prolonged and unresolved burden on the Sudanese people.

International organizations and humanitarian bodies must establish fair and effective mechanisms for resource distribution that guarantee the essential needs of all communities are met equitably, which would contribute to building a more balanced and just humanitarian system by reinforcing the United Nations’ coordination efforts to expand cash response programs, strengthen and facilitate purposeful partnerships between UN agencies and key cash actors in Sudan toward enhancing integration and response efficiency and implementing a multi-sectoral, gender-sensitive response to famine, including sexual and reproductive health services, protection, and gender-based violence programs, particularly in light of the conflict’s disproportionate impact on women and girls.

In short, the international community can no longer remain passive in the face of Sudan’s humanitarian crisis. It is crucial that the warring parties take immediate responsibility, halting the conflict and prioritizing humanitarian needs over political and military objectives. Continued fighting will only lead to further devastation for the Sudanese population, especially its most vulnerable groups, such as women and children, who are bearing the brunt of the suffering through displacement, deprivation, and the loss of basic rights. The global community must collaborate with local stakeholders to broker a lasting ceasefire and bolster relief and reconstruction efforts, providing Sudanese people with a genuine chance for a dignified life and a safer, more stable future.

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TAGGED: Sudan
Salma Abdel-Moneim November 12, 2024
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