By using ECSS site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
ECSS - Egyptian Center for Strategic StudiesECSS - Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies
  • Home
  • International Relations
    International Relations
    Show More
    Top News
    African Natural Resources: Opportunities and Challenges
    June 14, 2020
    Quartet ends boycott of Qatar
    January 9, 2021
    Talibanistan or Civil War: Scenarios for the Afghanistan Crisis
    August 30, 2021
    Latest News
    Structural Causes of Economic Decline in South Africa
    March 18, 2023
    Consolidation of Presence: Israel Heads to West Africa via Sudan and Chad
    March 11, 2023
    Opportunities and Challenges: Turkish Rapprochement with the Syrian Regime
    March 9, 2023
    Challenges and Risks: Nigeria’s General Elections
    March 8, 2023
  • Defense & Security
    Defense & Security
    Show More
    Top News
    Egypt’s Vision for Combating Terrorism
    June 22, 2020
    Strategic partnerships: Al-Sisi’s messages on Egyptian-Iraqi relations at Baghdad Summit
    September 5, 2021
    Egypt-Kenya military and defense pacts
    June 10, 2021
    Latest News
    ChatGPT: Promising Applications, Potential Difficulties
    March 6, 2023
    Coping with Challenges:
    ISIS from Operation Kayla Mueller to the Syria Earthquake
    March 4, 2023
    Reasons and Ramifications of Al-Shabaab’s Retreat from its Positions
    January 30, 2023
    Task Force 59: The New US Military Deployment Pattern in the Middle East
    November 30, 2022
  • Public Policy
    Public Policy
    Show More
    Top News
    Human Rights in Egypt: Pragmatic Translation of Political Will
    June 22, 2020
    Lebanon’s economic crunch and fuel shortages
    September 12, 2021
    New Policies to Provide Effective Training for Teachers
    August 24, 2022
    Latest News
    Imminent Challenges: Hunger and Global Food Security Disruption
    March 14, 2023
    How will Forward Exchange Contracts Affect Egypt’s Market Stability?
    January 24, 2023
    Egypt’s Economic Gains from COP27
    December 14, 2022
    Global Crisis: Whither Inflation?
    December 8, 2022
  • Analysis
    • Analysis
    • Analytical article
    • Opinions Articles
  • Activities
    • Conferences
    • ECSS Agenda
    • Panel Discussion
    • Seminar
    • Workshops
  • ECSS Library
    • Books
    • Digital Editions
    • Periodicals
    • Special Editions
  • العربية
  • Advertise
All Rights Reserved to ECSS © 2022,
Reading: Reasons and Ramifications of Al-Shabaab’s Retreat from its Positions
Share
Notification Show More
Latest News
Structural Causes of Economic Decline in South Africa
African Studies
Reflecting on the Arab Regional System
Opinions Articles
A Gray Phase: Have the West and Iran Agreed on the Red Lines?
Analytical article
Imminent Challenges: Hunger and Global Food Security Disruption
Economic & Energy Studies
New Tactics and Multiple Challenges Evaluating Combat Efficiency of Russian-Ukrainian Air Operations
Analytical article
Aa
ECSS - Egyptian Center for Strategic StudiesECSS - Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies
Aa
  • اللغة العربية
  • International Relations
  • Defense & Security
  • Special Edition
  • Public Policy
  • Analysis
  • Activities & Events
  • Home
  • اللغة العربية
  • Categories
    • International Relations
    • Defense & Security
    • Public Policy
    • Analysis
    • Special Edition
    • Activities & Events
    • Opinions Articles
  • Bookmarks
Follow US
  • Advertise
All Rights Reserved to ECSS © 2022, Powered by EgyptYo Business Services.
Defense & Security

Reasons and Ramifications of Al-Shabaab’s Retreat from its Positions

Salah Khalil
Last updated: 2023/01/30 at 4:38 PM
Salah Khalil
Share
9 Min Read
SHARE

In response to the mobilization of clan militias against them, the Somali Al-Shabaab movement withdrew from its positions and announced the immediate evacuation of a large number of villages in central and south-central Somalia.

These shifts have raised a host of questions about the motivations behind the movement’s decision to abandon its positions. Is this a tactical withdrawal by Al-Shabaab to regroup its forces and return to the concentrations from which it retreated, or a strategic one given Al-Shabab’s multiple setbacks over the past two months as a result of the cooperation and coordination among some Somali clans, the Somali government, and the allied forces to carry out sporadic attacks on Al-Shabaab positions with the aim of eliminating it?

Clan Militias’ Role in Combating Al-Shabaab

Clan militia fighters cited a variety of reasons for joining the fight against Al-Shabaab, including the movement’s taking of their livestock (which is a significant source of savings for the tribes), kidnapping and forcing children to join the movement as fighters, killing family members, and imposing excessive taxes on the local population.  

Many Al-Shabaab fighters deserted the movement, which served as a major factor in its defeat, especially after the allied forces (i.e. the African Union forces and the US forces) began supplying and deploying forces to fight alongside the clan militias. In the past five months, the allied forces supported by clan militias have been able to retake more than 40 villages in the Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions in the country’s center. This has forced Al-Shabaab to leave two key locations that served as the organization’s headquarters, while the Somali army managed to take control of bridges and major cities.

After Al-Shabaab ambushed convoys and humanitarian aid for the affected Somalis in their areas of control in September 2022, the clans revolted against the movement, sparking a real revolution and uprising of the clan militias that were already on edge due to mounting pressure from Al-Shabaab and forced recruitment. Clan militias perceived the attack as specifically targeting them and endangering their lives and stability.

Undoubtedly, clan militias contributed significantly to the fighting, which led Al-Shabaab to flee during the clashes between them. For instance, the Abgaal clan managed to take control of numerous areas (such as Middle Shabelle, Mudug in the south, and Galguduud) after declaring a general mobilization against Al-Shabaab in September 2022.  The central region’s tribal clans rose up against Al-Shabaab, particularly the Xawaadle clan, in retaliation for Al-Shabaab’s assassination of one of its most prominent clerics on May 27. The Xawaadle clan is a sub-clan of the majority Hawiye clan in central Somalia.

In the Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions of central Somalia, militias and government forces took control of more than 20 settlements as the military campaign moved forward, driving Al-Shabaab out of two key areas. The Somali forces have regained control of the restored bridges and large cities. Al-Shabaab responded by launching counterattacks and engaging in street combat, exhausting both allied forces and clan militias.

Since the summer of 2022, some Somali clans have worked to free themselves from Al-Shabaab’s tax and tribute demands. In an attempt to push them out of those areas, Somali clans have provided 3,000 of their militias in the ongoing war. Additionally, in September of last year, the Somali army conducted joint military drills in Galmudug with clan militias and the local populace to practice fighting Al-Shabaab, putting the country’s central region in a state of open conflict.  Previously, clan militias had joined the fight against Al-Shabaab, but this was the first time that these clans had received direct official military support, which encouraged local and affected people in Somalia to join the militias and fight.

Outcomes of the Military Campaign against Al-Shabaab’s Strongholds 

A new approach to combating terrorism in Somalia was formed by the combined efforts of the allied forces (the African Union forces and the US forces), the Somali army, and clan militias. They relied on waging an all-out war against Al-Shabaab in various locations, with the assistance of some clan forces and militias (Makawisli) that have extensive military field experience in the country’s center and south.

In this vein, Al-Shabaab suffered a quality attack when drones from the African Union peacekeeping mission launched airstrikes on Al-Shabaab’s positions, weakening and crippling the group’s military prowess.  It is also worth noting that international partners provided intelligence and security assistance to the Somali forces so that they could confront Al-Shabaab’s strongholds.

The government’s efforts helped tighten the screws on Al-Shabaab because the new Somali government laid out a clear plan for implementation that required close coordination between Somali clan leaders, local government officials, and outside forces in the regions where Al-Shabaab is active.  These actions had the extraordinary pressure of tightening the screws on Al-Shabaab and its concentrations, forcing it to withdraw.

Alongside these military and ground operations, the Somali government began open communication with former Al-Shabaab dissidents in an effort to contain them and recruit them into its ranks. The Somali authorities were successful in luring these elements and separating them from the movement by appointing Mukhtar Robow, a former Al-Shabaab spokesperson, as Minister of Religious Affairs. This undermined the movement’s cohesion and unity and lowered morale among its members.

Relatedly, the current government’s efforts to reconcile with Sufi militias and Sunnis in order to enlist them in the fight against Al-Shabaab have increased the pressure on the group, forcing it to seek refuge elsewhere.

The Future of Counterterrorism in Somalia

Despite the fact that the Somali army and tribal militias have retaken many villages and cities in the country’s center and north, they still face numerous obstacles that make it difficult for the state to hold onto the territory from which Al-Shabaab withdrew, given the state’s inability to provide aid to civilians and protect them from retaliatory attacks of Al-Shabaab in case of their cooperation with the allied forces.

Worse, the current government is mired in an economic crisis, rendering it unable to implement development or humanitarian projects, as well as structures for local governments in affected areas that encourage citizens to stay. On December 14, 2022, the Somali army and clan militias reclaimed control of Ali Guduud Mosque and its environs, as well as the checkpoints used by Al-Shabab to blackmail tribes and mount attacks.

In short, the recent uprising by clan militias supported by allied forces to drive out Al-Shabaab, one of the most potent Al- Qaeda affiliates in East Africa, has conflicting ramifications. While it is hoped that this uprising will weaken Al-Shabaab, a protracted military campaign will only increase chaos and instability and endanger the social and economic system by highlighting the role of clan militias, who may later adopt specific political demands.

Related Posts

Imminent Challenges: Hunger and Global Food Security Disruption

Opportunities and Challenges: Turkish Rapprochement with the Syrian Regime

Challenges and Risks: Nigeria’s General Elections

ChatGPT: Promising Applications, Potential Difficulties

TAGGED: Africa, Al-Shabaab, Featured, terrorism
Salah Khalil January 30, 2023
Share this Article
Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Whatsapp LinkedIn Telegram Email Copy Link Print
Salah Khalil
By Salah Khalil
A researcher at Al-Ahram Center for Social and Historical Studies

Stay Connected

Facebook Like
Twitter Follow
Instagram Follow
Youtube Subscribe

Latest Articles

Domestic Gains: Iran’s Stance on the Russo-Ukrainian War
International Relations March 21, 2022
Promising Opportunities: Egypt and the Export of Construction Services to the Region
Public Policy April 23, 2022
Reviving Egypt’s Foreign Policy Circles
Opinions Articles March 7, 2023
Turkish Economic Deterioration
Analysis Analytical article October 15, 2020

Latest Tweets

International Relations

  • African Studies
  • American Studies
  • Arab & Regional Studies
  • Asian Studies
  • European Studies
  • Palestinian & Israeli Studies

Defence & Security

  • Armament
  • Cyber Security
  • Extremism
  • Terrorism & Armed Conflict

Public Policies

  • Development & Society
  • Economic & Energy Studies
  • Egypt & World Stats
  • Media Studies
  • Public Opinion
  • Women & Family Studies

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies is an independent non-profit think tank, providing decisions-makers by Policy alternatives, the center was establised in 2018 and comprises a group of experts and researchers from diffrent generations and scientific desciplines. 

All Rights Reserved to Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies - ECSS © 2022

Removed from reading list

Undo
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Lost your password?