Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Flood events, Joe Biden has consistently expressed unwavering support for Israel. However, his recent direct criticism of the Israeli government, which was the first of its kind since the war began, has sparked debate about his concerns regarding a potential decline in his popularity and his prospects in the upcoming US presidential elections in November 2024.
I. Undermining Biden’s Prospects in the Election
Multiple analyses have substantiated that the Gaza conflict will have an adverse impact on Biden’s prospects for re-election. This viewpoint is bolstered by several key indicators, including primarily the following:
1. Biden’s Falling Popularity
According to numerous polls, Biden’s stance on the Gaza war has cost him a significant amount of support. A Wall Street Journal opinion poll revealed that former US President Donald Trump is ahead of current President Joe Biden, with Trump receiving 47 percent of the vote compared to 43 percent for Biden. Furthermore, the poll revealed that only 37 percent of respondents agreed with Biden’s approach to the war, while 52 percent disagreed.
Additionally, according to a poll conducted by the New York Times, Biden trails his opponent Trump among registered voters in five of six crucial states. Furthermore, according to a November poll by NBC News, 62 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden’s foreign policy and 56 percent disapprove of his handling of the Gaza crisis. The poll also revealed that, in the hypothetical election held today, Biden would receive 44 percent of the vote, while Trump would receive 46 percent.
2. Diminished Backing from Significant Voting Groups
There are those who argue that the Biden administration’s unrestricted backing of Israel could potentially result in Biden losing the support of voters of Arab and Muslim descent, in addition to diminishing his popularity among young voters.
In what came to be known as the “Abandon Biden” campaign, leaders of the American Muslim community in six pivotal states, crucial in determining the outcome of the presidential elections, vowed to galvanize their communities against Biden’s re-election on the grounds of his endorsement of the Israeli war in Gaza. These six states are thought to be among the few that allowed Biden to win the 2020 presidential election; so, opposition from their respective communities could potentially impede Biden’s progress towards securing the electoral college votes.
A survey of 500 Arab Americans conducted by the Arab American Institute between 23 and 27 October indicated that Arab American voters’ support for President Biden has decreased significantly by 42 percent since the Israel-Hamas conflict, falling from 59 percent in 2020 to 17 percent.
On the other hand, the substantial loss of life on the Palestinian side resulted in a decline in Biden’s support among the voting bloc of young voters, school students, and people of color who participated in pro-Palestine demonstrations. This will have a detrimental impact on his re-election prospects, particularly considering that youth participation has been a pivotal factor in Democratic victories over the past few years. This was corroborated by an opinion poll released by the American NBC news network in November of last year, which showed that voters between the ages of 18 and 34 no longer thought highly of Biden, with 70 percent of them disagreeing with his approach to handling the war.
3. Increasing Internal Opposition
The Gaza war has increased internal opposition to the US administration’s support for Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip, undermining Biden’s electoral prospects. A few days after the war began, US State Department Director Josh Paul announced his resignation. Besides, over 500 government officials from 40 agencies signed a letter denouncing Biden’s approach to Israel and calling for an end to hostilities and the provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza. This incident stands out as the most prominent among a sequence of objection letters submitted by officials across the administration. These include three internal memos addressed to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, signed by numerous officials of the US State Department through a channel established after the Vietnam War. This channel enables employees to express their dissent towards the policy. Additionally, an open letter, endorsed by over a thousand USAID employees, was also issued, calling for Biden to support an immediate ceasefire.
Furthermore, there has been a surge in demands from certain US lawmakers to establish stipulations regarding forthcoming US assistance to Israel. For instance, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy has advocated for a connection between the forthcoming aid and Israel’s adherence to international humanitarian law. Senator Bernie Sanders advocated for an end to the practice of funding Israel’s security with a “blank check approach.” He suggested that such funding should be contingent upon a commitment to refrain from occupying Gaza and a cessation of settler violence and bombing in the West Bank.
4. Divisions within the Democratic Party
Democrats have been polarized on the issue of Israel in recent years, with the party’s left wing becoming more critical of Netanyahu’s far-right government and Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians in general. In this regard, the Al-Aqsa flood events succeeded in not only widening the party’s divisions, particularly between the anti-war youth group and the party leaders, but also in tipping the scales in favor of the Palestinians in opinion polls among Democrats and independents, endangering Biden’s chances of winning reelection in the near future.
Newman Abuissa, a member of the Democratic Party, estimated that 70 percent of party members are opposed to the war’s continuation and that 20 percent of Democratic Party National Committee employees had signed a letter requesting a ceasefire from the committee’s chairman, let alone the divisions that have exacerbated among Democrats in Congress. Day after day, more and more Democratic members of the House of Representatives are calling for a ceasefire and criticizing Israel for stepping up its ground operations.
According to the US Axios website, nothing threatened President Biden’s fragile Democratic alliance more than Israel and the October 7 operation. The website pointed out that differences over Biden’s support for Israel are gradually but definitely growing within the Democratic Party, and that the issue has also become more visible in student demonstrations and sporadic remarks made by certain elected officials.
The website further stated that pro-Palestinian Democrats are outraged at the rising death tolls in Gaza made possible by Biden’s stance and that many liberal Jews are furious that so many progressive Democrats aren’t more outraged by the slaughter of family and friends back in Israel. Some are already threatening to leave the party.
II. Improvement of Trump’s Electoral Prospects
Trump’s chances of winning the election were improved by the Gaza war for several reasons, chief among them being:
1. Republicans’ Success in Leveraging the Gaza War
Certain analyses suggest that the Republican Party and former President Donald Trump capitalized on the criticism of Biden’s policies regarding the Gaza war to improve their electoral prospects in the upcoming presidential elections. They did so by attributing the escalation of global conflicts during Biden’s administration to Biden and drawing comparisons to the absence of such conflicts during Trump’s presidency. This occurred simultaneously with the upward trend in Trump’s popularity, as indicated by recent opinion polls and the emphasis on diminishing the United States’ engagement in overseas conflicts within the platform of his electoral campaign. Furthermore, before the elections, the Republicans managed to tarnish Biden’s reputation by pressuring the US House of Representatives to launch an official probe to remove him from office on the grounds that he had benefited his son Hunter Biden’s business. This came at a time when a number of US opinion polls suggested that a significant portion of the public believed Biden knew of his son’s corruption.
2. Linking Ukraine Assistance with Aid to Israel
The Israeli lobby’s significant influence in swinging the presidential election in favor of the party that typically wins US presidential elections is well known. Republicans took advantage of this fact by refusing to provide Ukraine with additional financial or military support in order to humiliate Biden and give priority to supporting Israel.
While the US President is attempting to incorporate assistance for Ukraine and Israel into a $105 billion military aid package that also addresses the issue of border security with Mexico and Chinese influence, the Republican Party maintains its stance of providing approximately $14 billion in support for Israel exclusively.
This may enhance Trump’s electoral prospects, particularly in light of the substantial American resistance to maintaining support for Kiev, as indicated by a Reuters/Ipsos poll in which 41 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that Washington “must provide weapons to Ukraine,” a decrease from 46 percent in May of last year.
III. Consolidating the Notion of the “Independent Candidate”
A few indicators have surfaced that could lead to the entry of a third candidate in the US presidential contest, given the disapproval of the return of the ‘Biden-Trump” duo by a portion of the electorate in the United States and the unclear outlook regarding the Gaza war’s future. Among these indicators is the fact that 58 percent of American voters favor selecting a moderate candidate who avoids partisan polarization. Along these lines, the “third-way” candidate received the support of 60 percent of Democrats, 47 percent of Republicans, and 71 percent of independent voters.
This suggests that there is a widespread public inclination to support a third candidate outside the two major political parties. Furthermore, the two candidates’ advanced age and the associated health issues that could impede their ability to fulfil the responsibilities of the presidency, along with the legal challenges faced by both Trump and Biden (e.g., lawsuits alleging corruption and fraud or demands to initiate impeachment proceedings), further complicate matters.
In short, while foreign policy concerns have historically held a secondary status among Americans in the context of the presidential election race, it is possible that the 2024 elections will deviate from this trend. The Operation Al-Aqsa Flood successfully elevated the topics of backing for Israel and the US stance on the Gaza war to the forefront, making them the most significant issues in the presidential race.
