Amid the world’s political and economic crises, the growing rivalry between the superpowers, and the desire of developing countries generally and African ones in particular to find development partners and open a window to play a larger role on the international stage, the leaders of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) announced expanding the grouping’s membership by inviting six new countries to join the bloc. The new members include two African countries, Egypt and Ethiopia, along with Argentina, Iran, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as of 1 January 2024, during the BRICS summit hosted by Johannesburg in the period from 22-24 August, under the slogan “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development, and Inclusive Multilateralism”.
This is the second expansion of the bloc, thirteen years after the first expansion, which added South Africa as its fifth member. The bloc was founded in 2001 under the acronym BRIC, representing the initial letters of the names of the four founding countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Following South Africa’s accession, the name was changed to BRICS. In 2017, Beijing attempted to bring up the topic of expansion once more, but India and Brazil refused to discuss it out of concern that it would diminish the power of the BRICS. Nonetheless, the rising tensions following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the escalating rivalry between Beijing and Washington compelled China and Russia to revive the idea of expanding BRICS once more in 2022, with the number of countries wishing to join surpassing 40, including several African countries such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Algeria, Nigeria, Morocco, Senegal, Sudan, and Tunisia.
I- Anticipated Gains for Africa
Africa has always been of particular significance at BRICS summits, particularly those held in South Africa, where the slogan “BRICS and Africa” dominated the three summits held between 2013 and 2023.
With the BRICS members’ announcement of their intention to expand towards “BRICS Plus”, two African countries out of a total of six new members were granted full membership, namely Egypt from North Africa and Ethiopia from East Africa. This highlights the growing significance of the African continent to the BRICS states and has many implications and benefits for both parties.
- Boosting Africa’s Global Standing
African countries endeavor to move from the periphery to the centre of international decision-making. The inclusion of new BRICS members from Africa is a crucial step in winning the backing of the group’s other members to secure a permanent seat for the African Union in the bloc, which would enable African countries to take on a more significant and impactful role on the global stage. This addition of new African countries to the BRICS is part of an initiative to encourage African countries to play a more significant and influential role on the international stage. It is also a crucial step towards gaining the support of the BRICS countries in order to secure a permanent seat for the African Union in the G20 group, given that the BRICS countries will hold the G20 presidency from 2023 to 2025 (India presided in 2023, Brazil in 2024, and South Africa in 2025).
This is viewed as a component of a larger strategy to call for the global system and its institutions, such as the Security Council, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank, to undergo reform in order to become more equitable, in line with the new realities of the African countries, and in a way that ensures the involvement of African countries in decision-making that underpins the global economy, particularly in regards to matters that directly affect their countries, including climate change, food security, migration, energy, and reforming the international debt structure, which is crucial given that many African countries are currently dealing with a severe debt crisis. It also entails Africa playing a bigger role in negotiating fairer and more equitable trade agreements with countries on the continent as true partners rather than just suppliers of raw materials.
Thus, the addition of African countries to the BRICS helps to build a stronger negotiating front for pressure on the institutions in charge of establishing international policies on crucial issues. BRICS will serve as a precursor to the eventual convergence of African and BRICS countries’ visions and emergence as a single voice in international forums.
- Enhancing Opportunities for Economic Cooperation with BRICS
BRICS is one of the key international platforms for coordinating multilateral action, with member states engaging in bilateral and collective dialogue regarding global issues. Since the bloc comprises the continent’s largest economic partner (China) and three of the most prominent partners (India, Russia, and Brazil) in several fields that are paying increasing attention to Africa, joining BRICS gives African countries the opportunity to expand their economic cooperation with these allies as well as non-African countries that have recently joined the grouping and assist them in luring more investments to the continent, particularly in key industries, which helps to open up a new source of funding for development.
In a similar vein, the expanded membership of Africa in BRICS may contribute to accelerating trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in a way that supports the continent’s economic and social transformation. To improve cooperation with African countries within the AfCFTA framework and open the door to broader cooperation with all African countries, the BRICS countries can develop better understandings with the African countries that are joining the bloc.
- Decreasing the Strains on African Economies
The consequences of the global economic crises brought on by the Corona pandemic and the fallout from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have put increasing strain on African economies. This is due to the continent’s over-reliance on the US dollar in financial transactions and its ballooning debt.
As part of their ongoing efforts to oppose the dominance of the US dollar and work towards a more equitable, reliable, and stable global financial structure, the BRICS countries have agreed to accelerate the use of their domestic currencies to settle trade and investment transactions between one another while continuing to reduce their reliance on the international payment system based on the US dollar. This will result in a decline in demand for the dollar among BRICS members, and it will pave the way for additional African countries to adopt the same strategy, either through future membership in BRICS or through bilateral and multilateral agreements with the group’s members, thereby alleviating economic pressures, reducing pressure on foreign exchange, pushing to strengthen trade exchanges with BRICS members, and encouraging openness to joint investments. For instance, Egypt, Russia, and India have discussed trading wheat, rice, and other strategic commodities in Egyptian Pounds, Russian Rubles, and Indian Rupees, and with Egypt joining the BRICS, these discussions may be fruitful.
Additionally, given the crisis that African countries are experiencing with donor economic institutions that set political conditions and the continent’s increasing need for financing to achieve the desired development, BRICS represents a promising opportunity for African countries as well as an alternative source for financing development projects through direct investments and low-interest, no-strings-attached loans from the New Development Bank (previously known as the BRICS Development Bank). The BRICS’ policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of its development partners is a crucial aspect of its profile that attracts more African countries. Notably, the BRICS Development Bank has approved membership applications from Egypt, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates, and Uruguay since 2021. Additional members are anticipated to join in the ensuing years.
II- Anticipated Gains for BRICS: Increased Global Sway
The addition of Asian, South American, and African countries to the BRICS indicates progress towards the establishment of a more equitable, multipolar international order. With a larger economic footprint and greater access to global resources, the BRICS will become more influential on the international stage. After expansion, BRICS now controls up to 50 percent of some global grain production and 42 percent of global oil production. Additionally, the five newest members account for about 40 percent of the world’s population and up to 31.5 percent of its gross domestic product. This is higher than the G7 share of 30.7 percent, and by 2030, it is predicted that the BRICS countries will account for nearly 50 percent of the global gross product. As the group’s membership grows, it is possible that this goal will be attained much sooner. The most recent expansion increases the group’s share of the global gross domestic product to approximately 37 percent, its share of global exports from 18 percent to 20.58 percent, and its countries’ percentage of the global daily oil production from 20.4 percent to 43.1 percent.
These statistics support the BRICS countries’ predicted rise in global standing. The expansion can also be seen as a strategic move by the BRICS founding members to demonstrate their leadership in the developing world and to improve coordination in multilateral forums like the United Countries, the G20, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund to win over the African countries in these forums. Add to this the economic benefits of expanding trade cooperation and investments with the newly-admitted African countries, which have abundant natural resources and promising economic capabilities within the framework of the AfCFTA.
III- Challenges Posed by the BRICS Expansion
Expanding BRICS membership is expected to benefit Africa and the BRICS countries, but there are a number of obstacles that could prevent those benefits from materializing, including:
- Growing Inconsistencies Among BRICS Members
The BRICS countries’ vastly dissimilar economies in terms of size and frequently divergent approaches to foreign policy complicate the bloc’s consensus decision-making model. Furthermore, internal conflicts among BRICS members, such as the ongoing border dispute between China and India, Brazil’s lack of political stability, and the imposition of sanctions against Russia, cast doubt on the bloc’s capacity to coordinate positions. Expanding membership may increase the risk of divergent interests and increase coordination difficulties, especially since Saudi Arabia and Iran remain rival powers in the Middle East, even though the Chinese-brokered agreement has eased tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran
- Impediments to Financial Coordination
Even though the BRICS members desire to use local currencies instead of the dollar in transactions and to issue a single currency comparable to the euro in Europe, it is highly unlikely that they will be able to do so in the near future. Expectations indicate that the process of replacing the dollar will probably take longer than many anticipate due to the economic requirements needed to issue such a currency, particularly in light of the stark differences in size and diversity of the economies among the group’s member countries. Additionally, trading in national currencies necessitates equal trade balances between countries to prevent the accumulation of surpluses of unnecessary currencies on the global market. For example, Russia has recently sold India a substantial amount of oil, which was transacted in Indian rupees. However, due to the imbalance in trade between the two countries, Russia is now sitting on a large amount of Indian rupees that it can only use to purchase goods from India.
- Resistance of Western Powers
The expansion of BRICS may also be perceived by Western powers as a challenge, which could increase geopolitical hostility and polarization between the two sides. Currently, the Russian-Ukrainian war has imposed an escalating state of hostility between Russia and NATO countries, and tensions are gradually increasing between the United States and China.
With Iran’s incorporation into the BRICS, tensions between these countries and the major Western powers, led by the United States, may increase. This could have a detrimental impact on the chances of increasing economic returns from the growth of the BRICS. However, other factors are beginning to emerge that could mitigate the severity of this trend, most notably the BRICS’s focus on establishing a multipolar global financial system that is more equitable and inclusive, without these actions being directed at any particular party, as official statements have repeatedly emphasized.
In conclusion, increasing Africa’s representation in the BRICS and the G20 is a crucial first step towards restoring Africa to its rightful place in the international system. While joining BRICS presents many opportunities for African countries, it is crucial for them to maintain their relationships with their Western allies. They must strike a balance in their international relations if they wish to advance their interests in accordance with their continental priorities.
