The potential alliance between Israel and Somaliland signals a significant geopolitical transformation in the Horn of Africa, carrying substantial ramifications for the region. According to a report from the Middle East Monitor on October 15, Israel is contemplating the establishment of a military base in Somaliland, a separatist region that unilaterally declared independence in 1991 but has yet to gain international recognition. Israel’s reported interest in Somaliland follows recent escalations against the backdrop of Iran’s utilization of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, which erupted on October 7, as a means to threaten Israeli interests through indirect confrontations via regional proxies, notably the Houthi group. In response, Israel is striving to forge strategic alliances with neighboring countries, particularly those positioned along critical maritime routes, with the goal of diminishing Houthi capabilities and curtailing Iran’s influence in the region.
Drivers of Potential Israel-Somaliland Rapprochement
Several strategic factors are motivating Israel’s potential alliance with Somaliland, including:
• Strategic Location: Somaliland occupies a pivotal position along one of the world’s key maritime corridors, overlooking the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which serves as a crucial link in trade routes connecting the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Indian Ocean. Approximately 4 million barrels of oil traverse the Bab el-Mandeb daily en route to Europe, with around 25,000 ships—accounting for 7% of global maritime trade—passing through this vital strait. Boasting over 500 miles of coastline along the Gulf of Aden, Somaliland wields considerable influence over international shipping. Moreover, it lies just 70 miles from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Israel seeks to leverage Somaliland’s unique geographical advantages to counteract the Houthi group’s activities, aiming to establish access to the Red Sea, particularly as the Houthi group controls much of the Yemeni coast facing the Red Sea.
• Security Calculations: The Houthi movement has significantly disrupted maritime traffic, leading an increasing number of shipping companies to divert their vessels away from the Red Sea, opting for more time-consuming and costly routes to reach their destinations. Consequently, the Houthis’ control over parts of the Red Sea coast has raised international alarm, including in Israel, as imports and exports from Asia represent about a quarter of Israel’s total foreign trade, and that most Israeli vessels engaged in this trade transit through Red Sea passages, making ensuring the security of this area a vital national interest for Israel. Considering this context, if a rapprochement between Israel and Somaliland occurs, it is likely to foster collaboration aimed at addressing Houthi maritime terrorism, which is supported by Iran, through intelligence sharing to identify potential maritime threats and efforts to combat piracy, thereby promoting freedom of navigation.
• Economic Factor: Somaliland possesses significant economic potential, boasting vast natural resources that include estimated oil reserves of around 110 billion barrels, as well as gold and various other minerals. The region is also actively working to enhance its infrastructure, particularly in transportation and port facilities. The modernization of the port of Berbera has established it as a crucial commercial gateway for the region. Israel has the opportunity to strengthen its ties with Somaliland through economic collaboration, potentially entering into cooperation agreements and memoranda of understanding aimed at capacity building in sectors such as agriculture, tourism, energy, and infrastructure development.
Possible Implications
Should Israel establish a military base in Somaliland, this development would likely entail numerous consequences and implications, which can be elaborated upon as follows:
• Undermining Iranian Influence in the Horn of Africa: A cornerstone of Iranian foreign policy is its opposition to Israel and the West, along with the ambition to establish an alternative regional dominance. Over the past decade, Iran has solidified its status as a significant player in Yemen by backing the Ansar Allah (commonly known as the Houthis). Additionally, Iran has capitalized on Yemen’s strategic location at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s crucial maritime chokepoints, granting it considerable sway over global shipping—a reality underscored by the events following the outbreak of the Gaza War in October 2023. Iran has equipped the Houthis with drones and cruise missiles, allowing them to target over 80 commercial vessels, thereby posing a threat to ships navigating through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and disrupting international trade routes. In light of this context, Israel is seeking to establish a presence to secure control over the Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden, which could be facilitated through strengthening ties with Somaliland. Furthermore, Somaliland’s proximity to Yemen would enable Israel to gather vital intelligence, enhance its capacity to target the Houthis, and obstruct their operations that aim to disrupt maritime navigation.
• The Possibility of Forming a Somaliland-Israel-Ethiopia Alliance: Should a rapprochement occur between Israel and Somaliland, it is likely to shift the regional balance of power, paving the way for an alliance involving Somaliland, Israel, and Ethiopia, considering Ethiopia’s signing of a recent agreement with Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi, which would grant the landlocked country direct commercial and military access to the Red Sea. As part of this agreement, Somaliland has consented to lease a military port in the Gulf of Aden, situated just 20 kilometers from its coastline, to Ethiopia for a period of 50 years. According to various officials from Somaliland, including President Muse Bihi, Ethiopia has committed to officially recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign entity and obtaining a stake in Ethiopia’s flagship airline, Ethiopian Airlines.
Notably, Israel’s stance appears to be supportive of this Ethiopian-Somaliland partnership, as highlighted by the Ethiopian ambassador to Israel’s remarks in January 2024, which indicated that Israeli officials welcomed Ethiopia’s ambitions for direct access to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The Ethiopian ambassador to Israel noted that the Israeli government anticipates Ethiopia securing a military base as a crucial step towards achieving stability in the volatile region, and it does not oppose the port agreement that Ethiopia has reached with Somaliland. This suggests a potential for coordination between Israel and Ethiopia to establish a naval presence in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, viewing it as an opportunity for collaboration that serves their mutual interests, with a particular focus on enhancing security and stability, safeguarding trade and navigation in the area, and preventing terrorist groups from seizing control of shipping routes and jeopardizing energy security. Additionally, this potential alliance would serve as a counterbalance to the coalition formed on October 10, between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, which was created to challenge Ethiopia’s influence in the region, particularly following its agreement with Somaliland earlier in 2024. Consequently, the Horn of Africa is poised for significant transformations that will redefine its geopolitical landscape.
• Surge in Terrorist Activity: Any closer ties between Israel and Somaliland are almost certain to provoke an escalation of attacks by al-Shabaab, which would strongly oppose an Israeli presence in the region and is likely to exploit anti-Ethiopian sentiments to rally and recruit fighters, using the agreement to stoke support for what it could brand a “religious war” against Israel—fueling instability across the region. Additionally, there are expectations of an alliance between al-Shabaab and the Houthi group, with coordinated security and intelligence efforts aimed at undermining Israeli interests in the region, in addition to expanding their naval operations against international shipping routes, posing a significant threat to maritime security and international commerce.
Somaliland’s Strategic Calculus
As of the writing of this article, Somaliland has not issued any official statement—either confirming or denying—the potential establishment of an Israeli military base within its territory. However, by analyzing political dynamics within Somaliland, we can gain insight into the perspectives and calculations of its political elite regarding a possible rapprochement with Israel. It is likely that Somaliland’s political elite will weigh key expected responses when assessing Israel’s proposal to establish a military base within its territory. These expected responses can be detailed as follows:
- Reactions from Neighboring Countries: If Israel extends formal recognition to Somaliland, this move would likely trigger strong objections from the Somali federal government and other countries committed to preserving Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. Such countries generally oppose any actions supporting separatist movements in the Horn of Africa. However, Ethiopia may view an Israeli military presence in Somaliland more favorably.
- International Responses: The United States would likely support Israel’s establishment of a military base in Somaliland. An Israeli alliance with the Somaliland government would provide access to the strategically significant Berbera airport and port, situated along the Gulf of Aden and near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, thereby safeguarding both Israeli and American economic and security interests in the Horn of Africa while counterbalancing Chinese investments in the region. This brings up a critical question regarding whether the United States and Israel might ultimately grant international recognition to Somaliland’s government. The United States stance has traditionally upheld Somali unity, working with both Somaliland and Somalia’s central government to advance shared objectives, viewing Somaliland’s status as a matter for the Somali people to decide. The United States remains cautious that backing Somaliland’s international recognition might encourage other separatist movements across Africa, potentially destabilizing the continent. On Israel’s end, it may enter negotiations with Somaliland on recognition in exchange for normalized relations across various sectors, which could impact Somalia’s unity and sovereignty.
- Progress on International Recognition: Reviewing potential reactions highlights a plausible path for Somaliland to accept Israel’s proposal to establish a military base on its territory. As a close ally of the United States, Israel could serve as a gateway for Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition—a longstanding objective for the Somaliland government. Moreover, Somaliland’s President is actively pursuing negotiations with the US administration in hopes of securing formal recognition. Concurrently, Somaliland’s political leadership is strengthening ties with international financial institutions heavily influenced by the United States, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, with the aim of attracting foreign investment to Somaliland, which would drive economic development, reinforce political legitimacy, and contribute to long-term stability and security for the Somaliland government.
In conclusion, it is evident that Israel aims to expand its influence by establishing a foothold on the Red Sea, with the strategic objective of securing its interests and advancing its goals within the Horn of Africa. This ambition underscores the need for African countries and the international community to collaborate in upholding the rule of law and protecting regional sovereignty, towards creating a stable and secure environment in the Horn of Africa.
