Throughout my follow-up on the developments of the Palestinian cause, I have had a mixed bag of sentiments about the issue, ranging between optimism, hope, pessimism, and frustration.
In spite of the countless positive and negative variables that took place in the region over the 50 years of the Palestinian cause, there has not been any just and comprehensive solution that achieves the legitimate Palestinian demands.
In this article, I will not discuss the future of Arab-Israeli peace. More recently, the cards have been shuffled, making it difficult to anticipate an approaching comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace looming in the near or far horizon.
The recent Israeli normalization agreements with some Arab countries – an inherent right for each country according to its interests – will be merely focused on bilateral relations between these countries and how this shall affect the region, without having any kind of focus on the Palestinian cause or its developments.
I will, therefore, focus on the future of Palestinian peace with Israel, since Palestine is the only country that still suffers from the Israeli occupation since 1967. What is strongly needed is genuine regional and international efforts to achieve a just solution by establishing an independent Palestinian state that we are still looking for.
The permanent and logical question remains whether any positive movements could take place during the coming phase to move the Palestinian-Israeli conflict from the current state of rigid, complex stalemate and the fait accompli to a somehow better state.
To begin with, it is important to demonstrate an assessment of the general situation related to the Palestinian cause by referring to the following five determinants:
First, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations came to a complete halt in April 2014. This means that all the moves since then have been far from the most important political process that is negotiation, which is the only means that can achieve positive results in the short or medium term.
Second, the only Arab vision for solving the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Palestinian cause is the Arab Peace Initiative raised since 2002. It is harrowing to point out that Arab countries have not succeeded in marketing or effecting this initiative over the past two decades or even convincing the international community of the urge to implement it.
Third, the Trump administration put forward “the deal of the century” in January 2020, a peace plan that takes the Palestinian cause to a very different path that eliminates the prospect of an independent Palestinian state. However, recently hope started to loom in the horizon to change this situation.
Fourth, the Israeli measures in the field of Judaization and building settlements have not stopped at any stage; on the contrary, they have increased, especially in Jerusalem. These measures are all a prelude to declaring the official annexation of large parts of the West Bank. This measure should be expected at any time, in spite of the temptations of Arab normalization and the attempts to curb Israeli plans in the region.
Fifth, the Palestinian position continues to suffer from the most important problem it faced since the 1948 Nakba, the inter-Palestinian split. The rift took place in July 2007 and still plagues the Palestinian cause. This split achieves the interests of the Israelis and parties that benefit from the continuation of the rift.
In recent years, Israel has witnessed many very positive and unprecedented developments in its favor, the most important of which is the US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017. Then, the US embassy was moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a decision that no US president has taken since 1995. Then came President Trump’s decision in March 2019 to recognize Israel’s unprecedented sovereignty over the Syrian Golan Heights.
Moreover, the positive status of Israel has increased considerably through the signing of normalization agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, respectively, followed by signing several economic and trade agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. All these agreements would strengthen the ties between these countries and Israel. It is worth mentioning that there is still a possibility for Israel to sign more normalization agreements with other Arab countries.
Despite these achievements, Israel is currently facing a compelling effective internal problem, as there are strong trends to hold the fourth parliamentary elections in less than a year or more.
On 2 December, the Knesset voted 61-54 to approve the preliminary reading of a bill to dissolve parliament.
The world is awaiting the impact of the ongoing conflict between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main coalition partner and Defence Minister Benny Gantz. Israel is heading towards a phase of political instability, which will certainly affect the peace process (in case it resumes).
The most important problem is the rising power and popularity of the far-right political parties in Israel. The Yamina Party, led by Naftali Bennett, won 22 seats, up from six seats in the previous general elections. Meanwhile, Netanyahu and Likud’s approval rates plummeted, winning 30 seats only, down from 36 seats in the previous elections. This indicates that the Israeli society is on its way to a more far-right approach despite the Israeli-Arab peace accords.
The results of the US presidential elections and the return of the Democratic administration to the White House, beginning on 20 January 2021, have opened the way for the possibility of redeveloping the Palestinian cause. However, let us not have high expectations for a dramatic shift.
During the first months in office, the Biden administration will focus on the coronavirus pandemic and re-establishing ties with Russia, China, and Iran.
In any case, the new US administration is much better than the Trump administration when it comes to the Palestinian cause. The Biden administration has not supported the “deal of the century,” which is totally unjust toward the Palestinian people. This means that the groundwork is paved for a different US approach regarding the Palestinian cause.
Moreover, it is unfair to hold Arab countries responsible for achieving progress toward resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, due to the current turbulence in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Lebanon, and the Gulf-Qatar diplomatic conflict.
These regional crises could hinder any successful Arab effort leading to a change in the Palestinian cause. However, it is the responsibility of Arabs to calmly reckon how to get out of the current impasse to following a more realistic path, in which practical steps could be taken in favor of resolving the conflict. In my view, this mission – albeit difficult – is not impossible.
Therefore, given the current changes, such as the increasing number of Israeli-Arab normalization agreements and the new US administration, Palestinians and Arabs must take certain necessary steps, such as:
Step 1: The next stage should focus on adopting the “peace offensive on Israel” principle. In my opinion, this is the missing factor that can effectively influence the Israeli society that must believe once again that its security and stability can never be achieved without reaching a fair solution for the Palestinian cause.
Step 2: Israeli-Arab normalization agreements should not be overloaded with reaching a fair solution to the Palestinian cause. Practically, there was no, and there will never be, a connection between normalization agreements and the progress of the Palestinian cause. These agreements must be only seen as diplomatic bilateral agreements that must be followed and their impacts on the region must be studied.
Step 3: Arab countries must have an integrated realistic vision to resolving the Palestinian cause that can be presented to the international community at the right time.
The vision has to be realistic, be it old or new, for Arabs to be able to market it to the world and convince all parties to adopt it.
Step 4: Embarking on serious preparations for the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on a basis that is acceptable to all parties. I am totally convinced that Egypt, with its position and wise political leadership, is the main country that is qualified to lead Arab and international efforts pushing for a real solution for the Palestinian cause. This solution must be conducted in the wake of the new US administration. It should focus mainly on resuming negotiations, and Arabs must prepare for it gradually, starting now.
The Arabs must help Washington to play its positive full-partner role in the peace process, which earlier led to a number of achievements regarding the Israeli peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, as well as the Oslo agreements with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).
In conclusion, the Arabs must invest their efforts in advancing the peace process. Any change in the Israeli position cannot be expected, as the current stalemate is in its favor, and there are no pressures on it whatsoever to stop its extremist policies in the occupied territories. Therefore, Arabs should take the initiative to push the international community to interact positively with the Palestinian cause.
In addition, the expected positive trends of President Joe Biden’s administration toward the Palestinian cause should be invested to start a new phase, which, if better used, could be better than the current situation, in which the Palestinian cause is being eroded and all proposed plans are in favor of Israeli interests and demands. In short, the Arabs must overcome existing barriers, regardless the expected results.
