It is going to be very difficult to erase from the memory of the world for the years to come the scene of people scrambling to get out of Afghanistan after the Taliban declared itself the only rightful heir of country that had been under US and international grip for 20 years.
Initial estimates tell of an expected increase in Afghan refugee numbers to a third of the Afghan people, with some already residing in neighbouring countries, Europe, or the United States while the expected human tsunami will come to make the “third” the estimates suggest.
According to semi-official data covering the period from 2016 to 2020, Afghanistan’s total population is estimated at 35-38 million. Meaning, a third of the Afghan population would account for 12 million citizens, a large figure that will certainly top the already burdened global lists of asylum-seekers and displaced persons.
While these estimates seem to carry a degree of pessimism, possible scenarios started to trouble neighbouring countries and countries the Afghan refugees target which have made it a condition for refugees to have served or collaborated with the NATO forces during its 20 years in Afghanistan.
This expected wave of immigration sparked off disputes between European countries one another and between them and the American ally, being the maker of the crisis that brought back to the European memory the previous immigration wave of 2015 when millions of Syrian refugees poured into the European borders. So, in response to this crisis and since 15 August, European officials have been convening meeting after meeting to develop a clear strategy that would address this potential crisis.
From what transpired in these meetings, the European Union (EU) has decided to work on stopping the large influx of Afghan asylum-seekers by boosting its support to Afghanistan’s neighboring countries and keeping the EU borders strictly protected. However, the EU didn’t make a joint pledge to host refugees en masse and the EU’s response to the call of the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s, for the international community – including EU countries – to resettle Afghans evacuated from Kabul remained divergent, although she stressed that refugee receiving countries will get generous financial support.
Recently, the European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies (ECTC) published an important article titled, “European Union – Efforts to prevent mass immigration from Afghanistan” which shed light on the obvious dichotomy between European countries over the refugee crisis splitting into two opposing camps: 1) those who seek to unveil the human face of Europe by establishing quotas for the distribution of refugees among the EU members and 2) hard-liners – led by Austria, Poland, and Hungary – who favor barricading doors in the face of asylum seekers.
The article made reference to the stances of some major European countries including Germany which announced it will host some Afghan, without specifying a number. Chancellor Merkel underscored the consistent German position of ensuring proper care of Afghan refugees in neighboring countries.
France, on the other side, received a limited number of refugees numbering 184 people to have a total of 500 Afghan refugees, marking its tendency to host only elements of the Afghan elite that will be easily integrated into the French society.
The British stance seemed substantially unique where Boris Johnson’s government announced a plan to host 5,000 Afghan refugees during the first year, with the number gradually increasing to 20,000 over the next five years.
Britain’s stance came in spite of the fact that UK’s withdrawal from the EU in January 2015 was motivated by the profound disagreement with the EU over the need to limit the number of refugees coming from outside the EU on the basis of defending identity and culture that – according to the UK vision then – have been rendered vulnerable.
These divergent stances evoked in the memory the conflicting scenarios that were raised in 2015 and beyond, scenarios that the current political mood in Europe rejects experiencing as happened six years ago. Following weeks of intensive meetings of the EU, Germany was commissioned to formulate the EU’s response to the new crisis building on divergent approaches that call the EU to accelerate financing of Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries and introduce policies that established giving refugee priority to women, children, individuals who sided with the NATO during its war in Afghanistan, and religious minorities that are likely to be exposed to a serious future threat.
While this is primarily a humanitarian crisis, it remains bound by the political and security considerations of countries that will assume the responsibility of addressing it. While all eyes turn to Europe, particularly Germany and France being capable of addressing the crisis, Germany is preparing for federal elections in September and there seems to be a tendency not to replicate Merkel’s policy of hosting huge numbers of refugees. This has been reflected in the voting of members of the German federal parliament on a bill to limit migrants.
In France, this crisis gave the Far-right Leader Marine Le Pen –and the Italian League party leader Matteo Salvini as well – an opportune moment to re-play the “immigrants and refugees” card declaring that providing secure passages exclusive to women and children is the utmost the country could provide. Marine Le Pen views that going any further would place the entire European continent under the potential terrorist threat. It is no secret to politicians and officials that supporters of this tendency are many and earlier terrorist acts make such fears valid touching on the bitter feeling of US abandonment of its allies who find themselves required today to address the repercussions of the massive exodus of Afghans, a complex crisis the features of which are yet to unfold.
