Iran’s Political Demography and Presidential Elections: Can Reformists Rise to the Helm?

The first round of the Iranian presidential elections was a challenging test for the political system, achieving half the goal. The Iranian regime demonstrated its ability to maintain cohesion and continue functioning according to the constitution despite the crisis of former President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, which was overshadowed by massive protests months earlier, rising inflation, and a “semi-regulated” confrontation with Israel. However, the other half of the goal was not achieved as the participation rate in the first round of elections did not exceed 40%, despite the participation of a reformist candidate. This indicated that the majority of Iranians are less willing to engage with the governing institutions and have lost trust in the political elites of both the main conservative and reformist factions.