On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared on Russian television, delivering a stern warning in his typically direct manner. He cautioned countries supplying Ukraine with weapons that Moscow might consider targeting them, particularly after Ukraine’s use of American and British missiles to strike deep inside Russian territory. Putin characterized the unfolding conflict as “beginning to take on a global character,” suggesting that Russia deems itself justified in targeting military facilities of countries enabling such actions against Russian sites. He reinforced this stance by declaring, “We would respond resolutely in a mirror way to an escalation of aggressive actions.”
Putin’s words, with their unmistakable connotations, left no ambiguity about his intent. Prior to his speech, and to further amplify this warning, Russia had carried out a targeted attack on Ukraine, striking the military-industrial complex in the city of Dnipropetrovsk oblast for the first time. The attack utilized an RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) armed with six high-explosive conventional warheads, highlighting the missile’s formidable destructive power.
The missile attack obliterated the industrial complex and caused widespread power outages in Kyiv and three other major Ukrainian cities, with Ukraine confirming the facility’s complete destruction. The RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile, a key component of Russia’s missile arsenal, is being deployed in combat for the first time. It can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads, weighs approximately 50 tons, and achieves speeds of Mach 21—21 times the speed of sound. With an effective operational range of 5,000 to 6,000 kilometers, the missile traveled from eastern Russia to the outskirts of Kyiv in just five minutes. Notably, the RS-26 is one of the missiles initially prohibited under a bilateral agreement between Russia and the United States to curb ballistic missile proliferation. However, the United States exited this treaty in 2019.
Russia declared that it would provide advance warnings ahead of any future missile attacks on Ukraine, giving civilians time to evacuate to safe areas. This announcement came alongside confirmation that American air defense systems are incapable of intercepting this new class of Russian missiles. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense acknowledged that its air defenses failed to intercept the missile and did not even detect it on radar. It expressed concern that no existing defense system can currently track or intercept such missiles, raising significant alarm among NATO members. This escalation by Russia was directly triggered by Ukraine’s use of American ATACMS missiles, with a range of 300 kilometers, in a strike on a military site in the Russian region of Bryansk, following approval from Washington.
Additionally, Russian air defense systems successfully intercepted two British Storm Shadow missiles and six US HIMARS missiles, targeting Russian territory, along with 67 drones identified as originating from NATO-associated arms factories. Just days before this intense missile exchange, Russia unveiled an official update to its nuclear doctrine, reinforcing the conditions under which it would deploy nuclear weapons— with the updated doctrine gaining official status last Tuesday.
The doctrine permits Russia to deploy and activate nuclear weapons in response to a large-scale attack, even from a non-nuclear state, if that state is supported by a nuclear power. This stance is an unmistakable signal to Ukraine and, by extension, to the United States and NATO’s nuclear-armed members. The Russian New Geopolitics Research Network commented that by deploying this missile for the first time, Russia is escalating the conflict to an entirely new dimension. It is sending a potent message, delivered via a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, to all European leaders, indicating that Russia intends to deploy these missiles from now on, without geographical constraints, effectively placing their countries at the mercy of its strategic arsenal, whether equipped with conventional or nuclear warheads.
In Russia today, there is a prevailing conviction that European leaders must reassess their strategies. Should Ukraine once again cross the line and strike Russian cities using Western-supplied weapons, nuclear warheads could swiftly replace conventional ones on those missiles. Such a move would result in a Russian response far more devastating and comprehensive than anyone anticipates. Given this scenario and its implications, it is clear that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has escalated into an exceedingly perilous phase. The use of American, British, and French weapons by Ukraine deep within Russian territory prompted an immediate revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, permitting the deployment of its nuclear arsenal in retaliation for any major conventional attack.
An American military expert at the Defense Priorities Foundation voiced profound astonishment, questioning why President Biden, at this advanced stage of the war and the twilight of his presidency, would take a step that significantly heightens the risk of escalation. The expert argues that this decision introduces an unnecessary danger to US interests and may, in fact, heighten Ukraine’s chances of losing instead of strengthening its position. His cautionary remarks emphasize the importance of maintaining strategic balance, while voicing apprehension about Russia expanding its actions beyond conventional limits into areas where it can profoundly unsettle and alarm the West.
This article was originally published in Arabic on the ECSS website on November 24.
