Jordan’s strategic location in the Middle East makes it a frequent target of regional threats and puts it at the focal point of political interactions. These threats frequently generate internal economic and social pressures as a consequence of the Jordanian political street’s engagement with external issues and the presence of disagreements among its political components. As a consequence, Amman is compelled to exercise prudence when dealing with regional and global affairs, maintain a neutral stance towards the parties involved in these events, and strengthen its defensive and security capacities in an effort to contain the political and security hazards that encircle the country and guarantee a degree of internal stability.
In this context, Jordan is confronted with a confluence of perils arises, encompassing the resurgence of terrorist organizations in the southern region of Syria, the escalating smuggling operations along the Jordanian-Syrian border, and the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip.
Combined Challenges
The escalating security threats in Jordan were precipitated by a multitude of regional factors, which can be succinctly outlined as follows:
Growing Drug Trafficking along the Syrian-Jordanian Border: Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, the northern Jordanian border has emerged as a region beset by peril due to drug smuggling and infiltration. The situation has recently deteriorated in light of the Iranian militia’s expansion along the 375-kilometer-long border, in the midst of Russian forces’ diminished involvement as a result of the Ukraine War. Recently, there has been an increase in the use of more sophisticated techniques, such as drones, and a change in strategy, as smugglers now coordinate simultaneous operations across an area greater than 100 kilometers, which can increase their chances of success. Their operations have progressed from basic smuggling activities, which they abandon when discovered, to extended and aggressive armed confrontations with border guard forces as they try to breach the border. Further, smugglers are now equipped with weapons and ammunition that qualify them for protracted conflicts with the Jordanian army. This has been manifested on multiple occasions, such as the violent clashes between smugglers and Jordanian border guard forces on 12 December 2023, which left one guard dead and another seriously injured, and the violent confrontations on 18 December that lasted for 14 hours straight and caused multiple minor to moderate injuries among the Jordanian border guard forces.
Moreover, smuggling activities have expanded beyond the transportation of drugs to encompass explosives and weaponry, such as rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition, mines, and automatic weapons. On 14 December 2023, Jordanian forces captured a Kalashnikov rifle and a significant amount of ammunition from smugglers and, on 18 December, they seized a sniper rifle, an M16 rifle, mines, and anti-armor missiles, and destroyed a vehicle transporting ammunition and explosives.
The Transition of Iranian-US Confrontations into Jordanian Territory: The expansion of Iranian militia networks, such as Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces, near the Syrian and Iraqi borders close to Jordan poses a security risk to Jordan. There is concern that Jordan could become a new arena for settling scores between the United States and Iran, as Iran aims to open new regional fronts against Israel and the United States to ease pressure on Gaza. The militias aim to take advantage of Jordan’s geographical location to reach the Israeli borders or engage in a proxy war against US and Israeli interests. They, for instance, employed drones to target Israel through Jordanian airspace on three separate occasions. Additionally, in the far northeastern region of Jordan, they executed an assault on the US Tower 22 outpost, which resulted in the deaths of three US soldiers and injured approximately forty others. These events cause the Jordanian government to be perceived less favorably by their US ally, further complicating Amman’s efforts to strike a balance between popular opinion at home, broad economic and security interests, and its commitments to both Washington and Tel Aviv.
Israeli Escalation in the West Bank: Jordan maintains that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip serves a greater purpose than merely eradicating Hamas’ rule and capabilities; it also seeks to alter the dynamics of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict by presenting a formula for a settlement that would encroach upon Egyptian-Jordanian territories, taking advantage of the Biden administration’s weakness and Western support for the conflict in order to compel the Gaza Strip’s population to evacuate under fictitious pretexts towards Egyptian territory. This could be followed by a repeat of the scenario in the West Bank, where Israeli forces are committing new acts of violence against Palestinians on a daily basis, destroying city and camp infrastructure, and attempting to displace any remaining Palestinians from Area C in the midst of an escalation in violent practices of settlers. The scenario of displacement poses a significant threat to the state’s existence, with Palestinians accounting for over 50% of the population.
Resurgence of Terrorist Organizations in Southern Syria: Even though Jordan’s counterterrorism efforts have been successful in encircling the Daesh threat in recent years, the northern front adjacent to the Syrian border continues to be beset by terrorist threats. This can be attributed to several factors, including the resurgence of Daesh cell activity in southern Syria subsequent to the withdrawal of Russian forces, the altered security and political landscape in that region, and the Syrian government’s release of some members of Daesh, which further compounded the situation. This raises two significant concerns regarding the potential infiltration of terrorist elements into Jordanian territory due to vulnerable border security and the presence of activated sleeper cells within Jordan that operate using the “lone wolf” tactic. In this vein, the security services in Jordan successfully thwarted several isolated attacks in 2023 by individuals who adopted the ideology of Daesh. Furthermore, the threat posed by Daesh is increasing due to the declining significance of counterterrorism efforts on the global and regional scale, which has been influenced by the Gaza war and its consequences. Daesh has specifically identified Jordan as one of the Arab countries that it believes has been careless in its support of Gaza.
Worrisome Consequences
The aforementioned challenges entail various perils, including those pertaining to Jordan’s interactions with regional and international parties, as well as internal issues within the country in the political, security, social, and economic spheres. These challenges can be outlined as follows:
Strained Relations between Jordan and Israel: The Israeli military’s offensive on the Gaza Strip intensified the existing tensions between Jordan and Israel, which had already deteriorated during the tenure of Netanyahu. The lack of a tangible prospect for resuming the peace process, and the persistence of cruel policies towards the Palestinians in the West Bank exacerbated these tensions, considering their direct and indirect consequences for Jordan’s security, economy, and population, in addition to apprehensions regarding regional advancements, including the Abrahamic Accords and US political initiatives aimed at resolving the Palestinian cause (e.g., the Trump Peace Plan), which may affect Jordan’s historical role as a guardian of religious sites in Jerusalem. Manifestations of the recent tensions were apparent in the reciprocal recall of ambassadors and the halt of the water-for-energy agreement facilitated by the Emirates. This agreement entails Jordan exporting approximately 600 megawatts of solar-generated electricity to Israel each year, in return for Israel providing Jordan with 200 million cubic meters of desalinated water (equivalent to half of Jordan’s water shortage). Jordan’s actions come in an effort to contain public outcry and stop it from growing; this is especially true in light of recent internal opposition to the water-for-energy deal, which has manifested itself in protests.
Disruption of Jordanian-US Relations: Jordan is widely regarded as the linchpin of the United States’ strategic alliance with the Middle East and heavily depends on economic and military assistance from the United States. Nevertheless, the relationship between the two countries is currently facing a crucial turning point. The Jordanian government finds itself between a rock and a hard place, with the challenge of preserving its strategic partnership with the United States, being the second largest recipient of US economic aid, amounting to $1.45 billion per year, second only to Israel, and managing the escalating public outrage regarding US backing of Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip. Protesters in Jordan express their criticism of the US role and label President Biden as a war criminal and an accomplice in offenses committed against the Palestinians. In addition, they demand the termination of the 2021 Jordanian-American defense agreement, which some regard as an infringement on Jordan’s sovereignty due to its provision of expansive military privileges to the United States. The ongoing Israeli escalation exerts political and ethical pressure on the Jordanian decision-makers, compelling them to cancel a planned summit between King Abdullah and Biden in the capital city of Amman. This cancellation was prompted by the Israeli bombing of the Baptist Hospital.
Pressure on Jordanian-Syrian Relations: Jordan was a driving force behind the efforts to get Syria back into the Arab fold via the League of Arab States portal. Jordan also proposed the “step-for-step” initiative, which includes a provision that mandates the Syrian government to suppress drug smuggling on the Jordanian border. Nevertheless, Damascus’ failure to take any concrete actions in this matter has undermined the initiative, hindered the meetings of the Arab Liaison Committee on Syria, and stepped up rhetoric between the Syrian and Jordanian governments. Consequently, the Jordanian government was compelled to make an unprecedented decision, amidst the ongoing Syrian civil war, which is carrying out military airstrikes on leaders and dens of drug traffickers in southern Syria in Daraa and As-Suwayda governorates, which were deemed unjustified by Damascus and provoked the disapproval of the local Syrian populace.
Provoking Political and Social Unrest: In spite of the apparent consistency between official and public stances, which both condemn Israel’s continued humiliation and homicide of Palestinians, the political and public spheres are becoming increasingly divided due to the latter’s vehement accusations that the government is adopting feeble stances and placing greater emphasis on security and political obligations with the United States and Israel than on the rights of the Palestinian people. This chasm was manifested in the recurring demonstrations that spread across various governorates in Jordan and were met with police interventions to disperse them. While the ongoing demonstrations reflect a recurring trend that has historically been associated with advancements in the Palestinian cause, which has consistently prompted Jordanians to surpass acceptable boundaries of protest, as was evident subsequent to the First and Second Intifadas in 1987 and 2000, respectively, the signing of the Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty in 1994, and each substantial Israeli incursion in the West Bank or Gaza, confronting it by security forces exacerbates the divide between the government and its citizens while also fueling tensions among various political factions. As an illustration, in November 2023, a confrontation ensued between Brotherhood demonstrators and left-wing activists in downtown Amman regarding the potential display of political party flags in conjunction with the Palestinian and Jordanian flags. Furthermore, it sparked protests in areas with a history of opposition political activity. For instance, people in Amman’s At-Tafilah neighborhood, who take great pride in their lengthy history of defying Ottoman, British, and Jordanian authorities and are not afraid to criticize the government, staged a protest in favor of Gaza, despite the fact that the neighborhood has not seen any activity since taking part in an anti-austerity demonstration in 2018.
Furthermore, the problem of drug smuggling has caused a different type of social and political instability in Jordan. This occurred after Jordan shifted from being just a country used for transporting Captagon to becoming a market for the drug. As a result, the drugs smuggled from Syria have become one of the three most commonly used drugs in Jordan. Drug use exacerbates the societal stigma associated with addiction and its detrimental impact on social cohesion, potentially posing obstacles in the realm of public health, including the delivery of treatment and healthcare services. Moreover, the circulation of illicit arms exacerbates domestic unrest and escalates instances of aggression.
Doubling Pressures on Jordan’s Economy: The Jordanian economy is experiencing structural crises, which have led to an increase in both inflation and unemployment. Nevertheless, the economic crises in Jordan are not solely caused by internal factors but are also influenced by regional conflicts and global crises. The disturbances in Gaza, Syria, and the Red Sea region impose significant economic burdens on Jordan, particularly affecting the tourism, trade, and investment sectors. This leads to an increase in inflation and unemployment rates and puts pressure on the state’s overall budget. The Israeli aggression on Gaza, for instance, resulted in a significant decline in the tourism industry, as the number of daily visitors decreased by 32% in January 2024 compared to the same month the previous year, from 95,000 in 2023 to 64,000. Additionally, the aggregate count of one-day and overnight visitors declined from 504,000 in January 2023 to an estimated 469,800 in January 2024. The adverse consequences of boycotting commercial US, Israeli, and select Western brands should not be disregarded, as it has led to increased unemployment rates and the withdrawal of foreign investments.
Furthermore, the Houthi attacks on navigation in the Red Sea could have a negative impact on the trade and transportation sectors, as the port of Aqaba receives nearly a third of its imports through the Red Sea and is used in more than half of its exports, affecting the movement of goods and services, exports and imports, and limited trade between Jordan, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank. As a result, this places additional burdens on Jordanian companies and creates an unfavorable atmosphere for attracting investments, ultimately leading to detrimental impacts on economic growth rates. While economic conditions can contribute to social unrest and internal instability, they are considered less important in Jordan compared to potential security threats.
Consequences for the Forthcoming Parliamentary Elections: Jordan is concerned about how the increasing tension in Gaza will impact the outcome of the parliamentary elections scheduled for the last quarter of 2024. This is particularly worrisome due to the growing support for religious parties, specifically the Islamic Action Front (IAF) Party, which is the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan that is spearheading pro-Hamas demonstrations. Support for the IAF was expanded to include the main Jordanian tribes, which have historically served as a major stabilizing factor for the political system and are now considered part of the political and security apparatus. Numerous tribal leaders voiced their endorsement of Hamas, and tribal constituents participated in the organization and coordination of the demonstrations in conjunction with political parties that have longstanding ties to Hamas. There have been calls advocating for the reinstatement of Hamas’ office in Jordan, on the grounds that the organization represents an integrated ideology and not merely a resistance movement. The aforementioned circumstances, in conjunction with political reforms pertaining to the recently implemented election legislation and mounting public discontent stemming from deteriorating economic conditions and allegations of the Jordanian government’s feeble stance towards Israel, bolstered the influence of religious movements ahead of the forthcoming elections. Consequently, apprehensions arose regarding the Islamic parties’ potential sway over the upcoming parliamentary composition.
In short, despite the increasing security risks and threats faced by Jordan, particularly due to Israeli aggression on Gaza and the ongoing Syrian crisis, Jordan aims to uphold a delicate equilibrium by managing public discontent and preserving strategic ties with the United States and Israel considering the significant security and economic interests they share. Jordan also works to safeguard its water needs and maintain its historical involvement in the Palestinian cause. It also strives to avoid becoming a battleground for regional and international conflicts and works to enhance cooperation with Syria, Iran, the United States, and Russia in order to address the issue of regulating the activities of militias and ensuring border security.
