It is crucial to periodically review Egypt’s policies at home and abroad to evaluate the achievements, challenges, and threats and assess how to deal with them at a time of fast-pace developments and conflicts of interests.
Egypt is adopting a two-pronged approach. At home, the country is focused on reform, modernization, development, and eliminating the remnants of terrorism. On the foreign front, Egypt is fending off threats to its national security with might and wisdom.
First: Domestic developments
1- Parliamentary elections
The Egyptian government successfully conducted the Senate elections based on Egypt’s constitution. Two-hundred members were elected via individual candidacy and closed party list systems. A hundred members were appointed by the president. The opening session for the newly-elected Senate is scheduled for 18 October. It is hoped that this newly-elected chamber will be a success and will add value to Egypt’s parliamentary life.
In tandem, the House of Representatives elections are due in a few days. The final results will be announced on 14 December. It is hoped the new legislative arm will achieve its goals, defend the interests of the state, and improve the life of the general public.
2- National projects
The state is continuing, with great success, to implement the national projects’ plan that includes the capital and all other Egyptian governorates. The plan aims at achieving more advanced economic and social reforms, which will improve people’s living conditions.
It is not possible to elaborate on all the accomplished achievements in this article. However, it is important to point out that comprehensive national projects nationwide are being implemented regardless of the obstacles facing them. The reason behind this success is the will and determination of the political leadership. Some of the projects that led to drastic changes are: road and bridge networks, the housing system, the elimination of slums and the construction of the neighbourhoods of Asmarat, new cities, the Small and Medium Industries Complex, the Grand Egyptian Museum, and new projects in the oil refining and processing sector in Mostorod.
3- Fighting the coronavirus
Egypt has been successfully confronting the coronavirus, which is evident in the decrease of infected cases and fatalities. At the moment, whether Egypt is facing wave 1 or 2 of the pandemic, precautionary measures are still in effect in all governmental institutions. As long as the precautionary measures are successful, it is certain that the pandemic shall have a limited effect on life in Egypt.
4- Combating terrorism
Egypt is still exerting its utmost efforts and exploiting all its capabilities — the Armed Forces, the police, and security institutions — to combat the remnants of terrorism that are still present in limited areas in North Sinai. No one can deny that Egypt has fought bravely and achieved unprecedented success in its battle against terrorism, where many courageous Egyptians sacrificed their souls.
The Egyptian leadership still affirms the need to punish the countries that support terrorism to dry out its sources and eliminate terrorist groups. These countries not only provide continuous support to terrorist groups, but also transfer them to conflict zones, especially Arab countries that currently experience many problems, particularly Libya.
Second: Outside the borders
1- The Libyan conflict
Egypt professionally and skilfully deals with the Libyan conflict within the framework of a comprehensive vision under the leadership of President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi, and in cooperation with concerned institutions. This eventually led to laying the foundations for a political process that could lead to the realization of the aspirations of the Libyan people to have a unified, strong, stable, national state.
Egypt will not concede its declared position that there should be a Libyan-Libyan solution, and that all militias, mercenaries and terrorist groups must be expelled from Libyan lands.
In his speech before the 75th United Nations General Assembly on 22 September, President Al-Sisi explained the Egyptian position and stressed the fact that the Libyan crisis is one of the threats to the national security of Egypt and the whole region. He also affirmed that Egypt is involved in the crisis until a political settlement is achieved. In addition, he confirmed that Egypt will continue to support Libya to eliminate terrorist militias. The president also stressed the Cairo Declaration, that was launched on 6 June 2020, has included all the needed steps to end the crisis. Finally, he affirmed that Egypt still considers Sirte-Jufra as a red line.
In light of the Egyptian efforts regarding the crisis, police and military officers from the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) held a meeting sponsored by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) in Hurghada on 28-29 September. In the meeting, the warring parties addressed a number of pressing security and military issues, including confidence-building measures; security arrangements in an area to be defined at a later stage within the framework of the 5+5 Joint Military Committee (JMC) talks; in addition to the tasks and responsibilities of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG). The parties urged the 5+5 JMC to swiftly resume meetings. They also urged that prisoner exchange should occur before the end of October. Finally, they called for ending hate speech campaigns.
On 11-13 October, Egypt hosted the meetings between the two delegations from the Libyan House of Representatives and the High Council of State in Cairo. The director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service gave a speech at the opening of the meeting that can be summarized in the following points:
- There has to be a Libyan-Libyan solution without interference from foreign parties.
- Egypt takes it upon itself to provide all means of support to the Libyan people.
- Egypt is open to all parties seeking to resolve the crisis.
- The importance of renouncing differences and preserving the unity and integrity of Libya’s territories.
- The adherence to the political settlement under the auspices of the UN.
- Libya must have a constitution with defined political powers and responsibilities, leading to presidential and parliamentary elections.
- The importance of working on all paths of the political settlement.
On 5 October, Egypt participated in a virtual ministerial meeting in Berlin, co-hosted by the United Nations and the countries concerned with the crisis. The necessity of reaching a comprehensive political settlement was stressed, which could eventually lead to elections, and hence restore legitimacy. The necessity of the immediate cessation of foreign military interventions in Libya and the commitment to the arms embargo imposed by the United Nations were also stressed. All the participants welcomed the Egyptian efforts that support reaching a political solution to the Libyan crisis.
2- The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Some might believe that the recent tranquillity in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis means that Egypt no longer sets the crisis as a priority, which is completely not true. The crisis is still of an utmost priority for the Egyptian political leadership, and the president always confirms the vitality of the crisis and the importance of resolving it objectively.
It is important, in this regard, to refer to President Al-Sisi’s speech before the 75th United Nations General Assembly. In his speech before the international community, the president affirmed that GERD negotiations have not yet achieved actual results, and that Egypt has dealt with the crisis with utter civility over the past 10 years of negotiations. He also said that Egypt cannot go on in these negotiations forever.
On 13 October, the president of South Africa called President Al-Sisi, in which the latter confirmed the Egyptian position, that can be summarized as follows:
- The importance of resuming tripartite negotiations to conclude a binding and comprehensive legal agreement between all parties.
- The agreement must resolve the issue of the rules for filling and operating the GERD.
- The rejection of any action that undermines Egypt’s right to Nile water.
3- Gas in the Eastern Mediterranean
The East Mediterranean region is of vital importance, and many countries focus mainly on its economic importance. Turkey is trying to stir unrest in the region by exploring gas out of its maritime borders in Greek and Cypriot waters. This situation might result in military confrontations in the future between Turkey and Greece. Both the US and the European Union expressed their resentment and objection to the situation without taking effective steps to deter Turkey’s provocative policies.
Egypt was keen to take calculated steps in this regard. On 6 August, Egypt signed the maritime demarcation agreement with Greece, which is in line with international law and gives Egypt more power to face illegal incidents. On 10 October, President Al-Sisi issued a decree approving a deal on the demarcation of the Egypt-Greece exclusive economic zone, which legally means the agreement’s entry into force.
Egypt took a new important step to guarantee its rights in the international gas system. On 22 September, Egypt signed a charter with the East Mediterranean Gas Forum members (Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan and Palestine), in the presence of observers from the US and the EU. The charter transforms the forum into an international gas organization based in Cairo to allow member countries to achieve the optimal use of their natural resources.
4- The Palestinian cause
On 2 September, during his call with the Israeli prime minister, President Al-Sisi firmly pointed out that Egypt’s vision regarding the Palestinian cause is as follows:
- Egypt’s full support for any steps towards establishing comprehensive peace in the region, that preserves the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and helps them establish their independent state.
- Israel must not take any unilateral steps, especially the annexation of Palestinian lands that impedes the peace process.
- Moving the current stalemate in the Palestinian cause, which could allow the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.
- Negotiations must reach a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian cause is on the basis of the two-state solution and in accordance with international references.
5- Israel-Gulf normalization
The Egyptian political leadership welcomed all the agreements signed between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain. President Al-Sisi congratulated the Emirati and Bahraini leaderships. Egypt hopes these agreements will achieve stability and comprehensive peace in the Middle East.
6- The US elections
Egypt believes the US elections is a US domestic affair. The US-Egyptian strategic ties will not be affected whether the US administration is Democratic or Republican. In addition, even if there are some differences in the positions with the US administration, which is normal, these differences shall be mainly tactical on the level of views and perspectives and they cannot affect the strategic relations that both Egypt and the US have developed over the years. Hence, it is certain that Egypt is able to deal equally with any future US administration.
Existing threats and means of confrontation
Egypt faces many internal and external threats. In order to succeed, Egypt has to take a series of steps.
- There is a need for the continuation of security vigilance at all levels. The more successes are achieved at the internal level, the greater the possibility for terrorist actions to take place. The reason for this would be to negatively affect the morale of the people and spoil the overall climate of achievement and success.
- The coronavirus pandemic has not ended, and a second wave in the US and Europe has led to a repeat of lockdowns and curfews. It is important that the Egyptian people become aware of what is happening in Europe and take all the precautionary measures in order not to suffer the economic repercussions of another lockdown. The state must focus in the media on the dangers of the second wave, and must prepare for this phase.
- Egyptians must be aware of the surrounding challenges, on the internal and external levels and must understand the dangers of the impacts of these challenges and the objectives of counter-propaganda and scepticism regarding every step taken by the president. There must be a popular backing of the political leadership that exerts all efforts to achieve reforms and implements national projects in all fields for Egypt to attain the position it deserves among advanced nations. Undoubtedly, all international indicators affirm that the Egyptian economy is achieving positive results.
- The continuation of the state’s support and modernization of the Armed Forces to be always ready for any operation anytime, anywhere, to guard Egypt’s national security.
- The Egyptian media must play a more influential role to raise the awareness of the people, explain each stage the country is going through and present the state’s achievements in a clear, simplified manner, without underestimation or exaggeration. In my view, the role that the media played in confronting the coronavirus was successful and was greatly received by the Egyptian people.
- The continuation of the successful Egyptian management of the Libyan crisis without giving up on any of the principles that were set, starting with the Cairo Declaration until present. There is also a need for more coordination with the concerned countries, whether European or neighbouring countries, in order to make the efforts for a political settlement to the crisis a success.
- Reaffirming that Egypt will continue to adopt its policy of dialogue and negotiation regarding the GERD issue until an agreement that fulfils the interests of all parties and does not violate Egyptian water rights is reached.
- Egypt must adopt a political movement to return the Palestinian cause to the limelight. The movement should be based on negotiations founded on acceptable terms of reference, which would lead to the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state. In my view, I believe that Egypt is the country that can play this role most efficiently.
