As I write this, there is no glimmer of success from the truce negotiations despite urgent visits to the region by Western delegations and appeals from international organisations. The media is almost a parody of itself. With no knowledge of the texts being negotiated over, it has become a playing field for speculation and conjecture.
More disturbing are the statements of acceptance or rejection of the initiatives, especially since they were presented by Washington which said they were of Israeli origin. Hamas said it agreed to the 2 July initiative but not to any subsequent Israeli additions. Everyone is perplexed. Yet the battles rage, the assassinations and rocket fire persist, and all parties, mediators, observers, the media and the international community are left watching the disaster unfold without end.
What is surprising is that regional war has not erupted yet, contrary to the impression that it was impending, which could be gleaned from the impassioned words of the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution Ali Khamenei and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Evidently, the huge military deployments Washington has amassed in the region and the support that rolled in from its German, French, British, and Italian allies have drawn the red line: it will brook no harm to Israel. So, Iran and Hizbullah saw the truce negotiations as a temporary exit ramp. For the former, they are a pretext for postponing exacting revenge for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil; and for the latter, they are a reason to rest content with controlling the rules of engagement on the Lebanese-Israeli front, even if Israel continues its assassinations.
Not that this has reduced tensions in the region. Despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit, during which he confirmed that Israel had agreed to the final formula apart from some “technical” details to be ironed out in Cairo, Hamas has not stated its agreement. So for those of us not in the loop, the negotiating process continues to go around in circles. No mutual rejection or acceptance has signalled an end. This indeterminate state of affairs seems to have put Iran at a loss over whether to resume its plan for revenge or to opt for “strategic patience” in anticipation of the opportunity to step back from the brink of war. Meanwhile, one factor, which has received little media attention, seems to have kept Iran and Hizbullah and their affiliated groups from setting the region on fire.
The spate of assassinations of Iranian military leaders as well as other key resistance figures such as the late Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh and the senior Hizbullah commander Fouad Shukr together with a series of other Hizbullah figures, shows that they have been so compromised by moles and agents that they have been forced to pause to take stock and reassess their strategies. It will take time to identify and close the gaps which is very hard to do in the middle of a raging conflict.
But is the US-Israeli deterrence effective enough to stop the spiral into full-scale war?
According to Western reports and analyses a critical factor is the balance of power, which is not in Iran’s favour. Iran’s air defences are old and obsolete, with some of its equipment and systems dating to the pre-revolutionary period. For example, it only has the old Russian S-300 missile system, and not even the latest upgrades of that, which may explain why it was not used to repel the Israeli attack in April. The Iranian home front is thus exposed and potentially vulnerable to wide-scale strikes targeting urban or rural areas, which puts the Iranian leadership in a difficult situation. The same applies to Lebanon, where Hizbullah does not have an active air defence capacity or air force. Although Hizbullah has forced Israel to evacuate some 60,000 people from northern Israel, a full-scale confrontation between Hizbullah and Israel could mean the complete destruction of Lebanon.
That said, these factors and their ramifications are not new, and they have not prevented military operations and brinkmanship. Israel itself seems eager to escalate, seeing this as an opportunity to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The situation in the fifth Gaza war is therefore such that, unless a truce is reached, the paths to further escalation will remain open. Iran will resume war and revenge by proxy through Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. And Israel will find a way to provoke Iran again, compelling it to defend its honour.
Can a miracle happen in the form of a ceasefire, if only to achieve a face-saving success for President Biden and Vice- President Harris and to bolster the Democrats’ electoral prospects in November? Or will we once again be left to stare at a looming regional war? Whatever happens, let’s bear in mind that what is cause for amazement elsewhere may not be so here. This is the Middle East, after all.
This article was originally published on Ahram Online on August 27, 2024.
